Tag Archives: Michigan COVID

Southeastern Michigan COVID Update: August 2021

by Drawing Detroit | Leave a comment

The era of COVID continues, especially as we again are witnessing a case surge due to the Delta-variant. In Michigan, the level of transmission is now considered substantial, according to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC). The CDC states there are now 71 counties that are places of “substantial” or “high” transmission: Livingston, Monroe, Macomb, Oakland, Washtenaw and Wayne are included in this list. A county is considered to have a substantial transmission rate if there are 50-99 cases per week per 100,000 people and/or a test positivity between 8  and 9.9 percent; all counties in Southeastern Michigan are considered substantial by the CDC, except St. Clair County. A county is considered to have a high transmission rate if there are 100 new cases per week per 100,000 residents, and/or there is a positive test rate of 10 percent or higher. Those Michigan counties that have a high transmission rate are Alpena, Branch, Charlevoix, Huron, Iosco, Kalkaska and Montmorency counties, according to the CDC.

Michigan reported 910,500 total confirmed COVID cases as of Aug. 6, 2021. Of that total 3,962 are confirmed new COVID cases from August 3,4 and 5, 2021 (the State no longer reports case numbers daily).

In Chart 1 we drill down into the number of confirmed COVID cases for Southeastern Michigan, by county and for the City of Detroit; all numbers are represented of a five-day rolling average. The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing and/or the quality of reporting or failure to report. This chart also shows that, while the total number of COVID cases has grown overall since March 2020, there have certainly been surges. We also see that Oakland and Wayne counties continue to have the highest total number of COVID cases. Oakland County had the highest number of confirmed COVID cases at 104,354, followed by Wayne County with 104,090 new cases as of August 4, 2021. The City of Detroit had 52,394 confirmed cases.

Charts 2 and 3 provide a closer look at the number of new COVID cases over time. In Chart 2 we are reminded of the COVID case surges in fall/winter of 2020 and again in spring of 2021. However, as Chart 3 shows with a zoomed in look at the last month. New COVID case numbers are again on the rise. Oakland County had the highest number of new confirmed COVID cases on August 4, 2021 with 100, followed by Wayne County with 82 new cases and Macomb County with 56 new confirmed cases.

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data were supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State. Additionally, the case totals do not reflect the number of people who have recovered, just those who have been infected. In June of 2020 the State changed how it reports its data on the website, making data more accurate in the long-term but more complicated to track as well. The State regularly updates older data, and as we continue to publish regular updates on COVID the State’s changes to past data many not always be reflected in our posts. The data published in this post is accurate for the day we it was received and published though.

The chart below (Chart 4) shows that Macomb County had the highest number of COVID confirmed cases per capita. According to the data released on August 6, 2021 by the State of Michigan, Macomb County had 111,540 COVID cases per million people. St. Clair County had the second highest number of confirmed cases per million people at 95,339. Washtenaw County had the lowest per capita rate at 71,278 confirmed COVID cases per million people.

While the current surge of COVID cases may not numerically appear to be as troubling as what we experienced in the spring and fall, the Delta variant is highly transmissible and a cause for both caution and concern, especially for the unvaccinated. As of last week the variant was confirmed in 40 different Michigan counties.

Macomb County’s COVID Death Rate Highest in the Region

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The total number of COVID cases in Michigan increased to 31,424 (Chart 1), which was equivalent to 314 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 2) on April 19. Of those total COVID cases, the City of Detroit had 7,604 cases, Oakland County had 6,109 cases, Wayne County (excluding Detroit) had 6,088 cases and Macomb County had 4,360 cases (Chart 3).  The number of confirmed cases in Washtenaw, Livingston, Monroe and St. Clair counties combined totaled 1,626, with Washtenaw County accounting for 870 of those cases,  according to the most recent data from the State.

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data was supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State.

In Chart 4 we see that the City of Detroit has consistently had the highest number of COVID cases per 100,000 people, which was a rate of 1,130 on April 19. Oakland County had the second highest rate at 908 cases per 100,000 people and Wayne County (excluding Detroit) had 905 cases. Macomb County had 648 COVID cases per 100,000 people.

Chart 5 shows that there have been increases in the number of new daily COVID cases for Detroit and Macomb and Monroe counties. The number of new cases in Detroit on April 19 was 107, an increased from the new reported new cases of 83 on April 18. In Macomb County the number of new cases on April 19 was 109 and in Monroe County it was 9. For Oakland County, there was 88 new COVID cases reported on April 19, a continued decrease in the number of new cases since April 14. Wayne County has been experiencing a decrease in the number of new cases since April 16; on April 19 Wayne County reported 114 new cases.

According to the data, Detroit had a rate of 16 new COVID cases per 100,000 people on April 19; this was an increase through the weekend but a rate that is about half what it was during last week, and it was huge drop from Detroit’s peak. Macomb County was the only other county in the region with a rate about 10; Macomb County had a rate of 12 new COVID cases per 100,000 people on April 19 (Chart 6). 

In addition to the raw data of confirmed cases, we also show the percent change in the number of cases reported day-to-day. On April 19 the percent change from April 18 was 2 percent, a decrease from the day’s prior change of 2.6 percent.

It was reported by the State of Michigan that on April 19 the total of COVID-19 deaths reached 2,391. This was a 3.6 percent change from April 18, which was nearly same as the percent change in new daily deaths from the day prior (Chart 9). The 2,391 total deaths reported for April 19 was 83 deaths higher than what was reported on April 17 (Chart 10); this was two deaths higher than the number of daily deaths reported on April 18.

Of the total deaths reported, the number of COVID deaths in Detroit increased by 29 from the day prior. On April 19 the total  COVID deaths across time was 619 (Chart 11). Also on April 19, the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services also reported 501 total deaths in Wayne County (excluding Detroit), 471 in Oakland County and 391 in Macomb County (Chart 11). 

On a per capita basis, per 100,000 people, Detroit also continues to have the highest number of deaths per 100,000 people at 92 on April 19 (Chart 12). Wayne County had 74 COVID deaths per 100,000 people, Oakland County had 70 and Macomb County had 58.

Chart 13  shows that Detroit reported the highest number of new deaths on April 19 at 29; Wayne County reported 20 new daily deaths, and Oakland County reported 13. For Oakland County, the number of new daily deaths has continued to decrease since April 16; also note the number of new cases in Oakland County has been decreasing since April 14.

The final two charts below show the case death rates for the State of Michigan and for Detroit and the seven counties in Southeastern Michigan. To determine the rates we divided the reported deaths from each day by the number of total COVID cases each day.

On April 19 the COVID case death rate in Michigan was 7.5 percent; a slight increase from the 7.4 percent death rate reported the day before.

Of Detroit and the counties in the region, Macomb County had the highest case death rate on April 19 at 9 percent; it has been the highest since April 14. Wayne County (excluding Detroit) also had a higher death rate than Detroit. Wayne County’s death rate was 8.2 percent on April 19 and Detroit’s was 8.1 percent. The death rate for Oakland County was 7.7 percent, and, while the number of new cases and new deaths has been decreasing since in Oakland County over the last few days the death rate has been increasing.

These rates of death are very sensitive to the number of tests that are being completed across the region. In state or countries where far more testing is completed, death rates may be substantially lower. The failure of the CDC to complete and broadly distribute an early and accurate test has had huge consequences.

As the number of new COVID cases and deaths is increasing at a slower rate we do see that death rates for at least Detroit, Macomb, Oakland and Wayne counties are still increasing. While we know that the Stay at Home order is playing a large role in slowing the spread of the virus, how the virus is affecting those who have been infected is something we must watch, both in terms of death rates and other long-term effects for survivors.