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Hunting Interest Declines in Michigan

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Hunting in Michigan isn’t what it once was, at least according to the data. According to the US Fish and Wildlife Service the total number of paid hunting license holders in Michigan has been on the decline for well over 15 years. In 2004 there were 870,432 paid hunting licenses in Michigan and by 2021 that number declined to 642,242 licenses. These numbers are reflective of all the hunting licenses in the State of Michigan, including those purchased by non-residents of the State. In addition to needing a hunting license to hunt in the State of Michigan tags, permits and other regulatory forms are also needed to hunt certain animals in Michigan; those numbers have been declining as well.

According to a recent article by Bridge Magazine, a large reason for the decline of nearly 230,000 hunters in Michigan is because of a shift in interest. The article quotes Dustin Isenhoff, a Michigan Department of Natural Resources research specialist who tracks hunting participation, who says that many of the State’s avid hunters are aging out of the sport, and many of today’s children don’t have the same interest in the sport.

With the decline of participation in hunting also comes the fear of a decline in revenue. Twenty percent of the Michigan Department of Natural Resource’s revenue comes from fees from hunting and fishing licenses. In 2014 then Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder increased the cost of hunting licenses to increase revenue from an already declining sport. In some cases, the cost of a license doubled; a typical deer license once cost a Michigan resident $15, it increased $31. And, while that has brought on increased revenue there is still the fact the number of licenses being sold is dropping significantly.

The map below shows the number of deer harvested in each county in Michigan in 2020; these numbers do not include the 9,557 that were taken with deer management permits though (these are specifically used for population control). One notable area with a high number of harvested deer and several designated hunting areas is Van Buren, Berrien and Cass counties in Southwestern Michigan. However, even with all the number of deer harvested combined in the map below, the total number is less than the number of deer harvested for population management, which is also a controversial topic.

Hunting only does so much to control the deer population as it is seasonal and can only take place on designated lands. There are deer culling programs in places like Grosse Ile and Meridian Township, but, as alluded to earlier, these programs often draw strong opposition. An Ann Arbor program was cancelled after years of opposition from residents.

Some consider deer as a nuisance to gardeners and that they drive out certain species due to their overpopulation and often are a hazard to drivers in certain places. Others note that the natural predators to deer, including coyotes and cougars, were eliminated in most places in Michigan, although the coyote population is now rising.

The issue of deer hunting and population control is one that is complex and requires a delicate balance. Some call to open more public hunting land in Southeastern Michigan to allow for easier access to the sport and to better control the deer population where numbers are growing due to less space for them to live. However, the risks to hikers, cyclists and other users of open space is significant as well.

Between 2010 and 2018, 16 deaths and 86 non-fatal injuries were linked to hunters’ weapons, according to Michigan Department of Natural Resources reports analyzed by Bridge. In 2015 and 2016 there were not any hunter deaths reported; these were the only two years, at least since 1970, when that happened.

The $100K Home May Soon be a Dream of the Past in Southeastern Michigan

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Housing prices continue to soar in the Metro-Detroit region, and beyond.  According to the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, the average price of single-family dwellings sold was $154,160 in July of 2021; this was $1,560 higher than the average family dwelling price in June. Furthermore, the July 2021 price was an increase of $21,700 from July of 2020 and $56,030 from July of 2014. This means, that the average single-family dwelling was being sold for under $100,000 in 2014. The data below shows how pressed a homebuyer would be to find a home for such a price in 2019 (most recent American Community Survey), meaning it is even more difficult today.

According to the 2019 ACS data, Wayne County had the highest percentage of owner-occupied units that were valued at less than $100,000 at 44.8 percent. The percentage of owner-occupied homes valued at less than $100,000 available in Wayne County in 2019 was 24 percent less than what was available five years prior (2014). Wayne County experienced the smallest decline in owner-occupied units valued at less than $100,000, while Oakland County experienced the largest. In 2019, 12.5 percent of the owner-occupied units in Oakland County were valued at less than $100,000. That number is a 47 percent decrease in the percentage of owner-occupied units valued at less than $100,000 in 2014—five years prior.

While Oakland County had the largest decline in the percentage of owner-occupied units valued at less than $100,000 between 2014 and 2019, it was Livingston County that had the smallest percentage of owner-occupied units valued at less than $100,000 both in 2014 and 2019. In 2019, 8 percent of Livingston County’s owner-occupied housing stock was valued at less than $100,000 and in 2014 it was 14 percent (still the lowest in the region).

Overall, the data shows some of what we already know—particularly that housing prices continue to increase, and at a more rapid rate than in previous years. However, we also know that wages are not increasing with the rate of inflation, and for many, with the rate of increased home prices. As affordable housing continues to remain an issue, it is important to understand where those gaps are also growing at an increased rate. The data shows that, regionally, Wayne County had the largest percentage of homes available for under $100,000, with the number available decreasing at the slowest rate.

Food Prices Increase with Inflation, Food Plans Don’t Add Up

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Food prices are one of the many goods and services increasing along with the rate of inflation. These food price increases are being driven up by the increased cost in oil and transportation, worker shortages and weather patterns that have been negatively impacting crops. These factors combined bring a direct impact on the wallets of all of us. Food and beverages are necessities to live, but as prices continue to rise while wages remain stagnant in many industries, access to these necessities may continue to grow more difficult for many families.

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), the average monthly food bill for a family of four on the department’s “thrifty food plan” was $848.40 in September of 2021. In September of 2020, the average monthly bill on the same plan was $676.70. The thrifty food plan is one of four food plans USDA develops that estimate the cost of a healthy diet across various price points – the thrifty, low-cost, moderate-cost and liberal food plans. The thrifty food plan is the lowest cost of the four. It represents the cost of a nutritious, practical, cost-effective diet prepared at home for a family of four, which is defined in law as an adult male and female, ages 20-50, and two children, ages 6-8 and 9-11.

The “liberal food plan” provides broader suggestions for a healthy diet with more leniency in price too. According to the USDA, an average monthly grocery bill for a family of four on the “liberal plan” was $1,339.80 in September of 2020 and was $1,353.90 in September of 2021. Both examples show how food and beverage prices have certainly gone up over the last year, but comparing the thrifty and liberal average grocery bill also shows that there was a greater increase in price for those adhering to a more thrifty plan, as opposed to a liberal plan.

Examples of how grocery money should be spent, according to the USDA, for each child on each food plan are as follows:

Thrifty food plan:

•1.70 lbs of whole grain breads, rice, pasta, or pastries

•0.07 lbs of whole grain cereals

•No popcorn and other grain snacks

•0.76 lbs of non-whole grain breads, rice, pasta, pastries, cereals, or flours

Liberal food plan

•1.37 lbs of whole grain breads, rice, pasta, or pastries

•0.07 lbs of whole grain cereals

•0.46 lbs of popcorn and other grain snacks

•1.46 lbs of non-whole grain breads, rice, pasta, pastries, cereals, or flours

Those on the thrifty food plan are being encouraged to eat more breads, rice and pasta, likely because of their traditionally lower costs for these sometimes nutrient dense food sources.

These difference in cost increases between the two plans and the type of foods families are encourages to eat further highlights how if a certain food group experiences a large increase from one month to the next meal times for families could drastically change.

The thrifty food plan is used to determine Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program (SNAP) benefit amounts, which vary by household size. By law, the cost of the thrifty food plan in June sets the maximum SNAP benefit amount for a household of four people for the following fiscal year (October 1 through September 30). While the June thrifty food plan suggestions determine the maximum SNAP benefits for a fiscal year, food prices vary on a month-to-month basis, as do the cost of other goods and services.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure which helps show how the costs of goods and services change on a month-to-month and a year-to-year basis. The CPI has been increasing nationally and in the Midwest region for the past year, with goods and services such as housing, transportation and fuel all increasing. As already noted, food and beverage prices have also been increasing in recent months, a noticeable change many of us see at the grocery store and in our wallets.

The first chart below shows how food and beverage prices by certain categories changed between September of 2020 and September of 2021, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The highest CPI change in the food and beverage category has been for meat, poultry, fish and eggs. In the last year prices have increased by 10.5 percent. The non-alcoholic beverage category saw the second highest annual increase of the categories shown at 7.4 percent. Cereal and bakery products increased the least at 2.4 percent.

The second chart below shows how food and beverage prices changed between August and September of 2021. Meat, poultry, fish and eggs again had the largest increase at 2.4 percent, followed by non-alcoholic beverages with a 1.4 percent increase. Fruits and vegetable prices, on average, decreased 0.2 percent.

Price increases directly affect families, especially those utilizing assistance programs. For many, a few dollars can mean the difference between some extra groceries, or even a healthier option. In Wayne County alone there were 133,170 households who used SNAP benefits in 2019, and a monthly shift in pricing directly impacts what and how much these families may eat.

According to the US Census Bureau, in Southeastern Michigan, Wayne County had the highest percentage of households utilizing SNAP benefits at about 14 percent, followed by 12 percent of St. Clair County households utilizing the benefits and 11 percent of Monroe County households.

Increasing food and beverage prices is just one of many factors that could drive up the percentage of people in poverty, and drive those in poverty even deeper into it. As noted, increasing food prices are related to increasing costs of transportation (gas), worker shortages and supply and demand. Increasing prices for gas will impact more than just food and beverages too, meaning this is just another area in which the dollar won’t stretch for many Americans. With wages not keeping up with the price of inflation (Michigan’s minimum wage has remained at $9.65 for 2021) or not growing closer to being a “living wage”, many may have to chose between meals, gas and heat and electricity in the coming months.

CPI Soars for Midwest Region

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In August of 2021 the unemployment rates for the State of Michigan remained steady from the previous months while the City of Detroit’s unemployment rate took a dip, following a slight increase the month prior. The State of Michigan reported an unemployment rate of 4.4 in August, which was just below the 5 percent unemployment rate reported in July. Since January of 2021 the State’s unemployment rate has not gone above 6.1 percent.

For the City of Detroit, the unemployment rate for August of 2021 was 8.4 percent, which is 1.7 points lower than the July unemployment rate and 10.8 points lower than the August 2020 rate.

Both data sets show that the unemployment rates in Michigan and Detroit are stabilizing to pre-pandemic rates.

The chart above shows unemployment rates beginning to level off and the chart below shows a deeper story—just how drastically unemployment rates have dropped in a year. Each county in Southeastern Michigan experienced an unemployment rate decrease between August of 2020 and August of 2021, with Wayne County experiencing the largest decrease at 8.5 points. In August of 2020 Wayne County had an unemployment rate of 13.3 percent and in August of 2021 it decreased to 4.8 percent. Monroe County had the smallest change in the last year with it recording an unemployment rate of 6.4 percent in August of 2020 and a rate of 5.2 percent in August of 2021. In August of 2021, Monroe County also had the highest unemployment rate regionally. Livingston County reported the lowest unemployment rate in August of 2021 at 2.4 percent while Washtenaw County reported the lowest unemployment rate in August of 2020 at 5.8 percent.

The charts below show the percent changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on a month-to-month basis and a year-to-year basis for each month in years 2019, 2020 and 2021 in the Midwest Region. The CPI is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food, energy, housing and medical care. It is calculated by taking price changes for each item in the predetermined group of goods and averaging them.

The first  chart below highlights how the CPI changed on a month-to-month basis between 2019 and 2021. Prices in the Midwest region fell to their lowest in April of 2020, a -1.1 percent decline from the month prior; this was just as the pandemic was beginning. Just a month later though they increased by 0.8 percent. Currently in 2021, area prices are up 0.2 percent between August and September. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, food prices increased 1 percent between August and September of 2021, and energy prices increased 0.9 percent. Categories that were higher included shelter, apparel, household furnishings and operations.

When examining the second chart, which shows how prices changed on a year-to-year basis,  we see how prices in nearly the entire year of 2020 declined below what they were in 2019 (which was a fairly stable year) and how in 2021 the CPI has been lingering between about 5.5 and 5.9 percent since May. Of course, with the steep decline in 2020 due to the pandemic, we are likely to see a higher CPI in 2021 as everything begins to stabilize. However, some categories are experiencing rather large leaps. For example, in September of 2021 the CPI was up 5.7 percent from a year ago. One of the expenditures that has experienced a large increase in the CPI categories is gas services. Utility services are up 34.2 percent from a year ago and gasoline (motor fuel) is up 45.6 percent from a year ago. Under food and beverages, meats, poultry, fish and eggs experienced the highest increase at a 7.4 percent increase from a year ago, and housing experienced a 5.1 percent increase.
Home prices are being driven up by the demand for housing. In Metro Detroit, according to the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, the average price of single-family dwellings sold was $154,160 in July of 2021; this was $1,560 higher than the average family dwelling price in June. The July  2021 price was an increase of $21,700 from July of 2020 and $56,030 from July of 2014. Home prices have continued to increase year-after-year but the recent average price of single-family dwellings sold in the Metro-Detroit area has increased at a higher rate than in previous years, and it appears it may not be slowing down any time soon.

Public Corruption Continues to Grow in Southeastern Michigan

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Metro-Detroit is not unfamiliar with public corruption. At least once a year, but usually more often than that, a public corruption cases surfaces in Southeastern Michigan that involves a public official. Recent headlines have been focused on several public officials, including four from the Detroit City Council, three from the Detroit Police Department and three from Macomb County. These charges have surfaced over the last year or so, and have only driven the total number of public corruption cases that can be accounted for in the last four years. In total, there have been at least 32 public corruption charges since 2016 in Southeastern Michigan that involve either an elected official or a public employee. When including public contractors that number rises to about 40.

Most recently, investigations involve Detroit City Councilmembers Andre Spivey, Janee Ayers and Scott Benson. Last week, Andre Spivey pled guilty to federal bribery charges and admitted he and an aide received almost $36,000 in bribes. This case involving Spivey is connected to a larger investigation related to its towing operations. Ayers and Benson have not been charged with any crimes, however their homes have been raided in connection with this broad FBI investigation, according to news reports. The chief of staffs for Ayers and Benson are also included in this investigation but have not been charged. Since Ayers, Benson and their chief of staffs have not been charged with any crimes they were not included in the total number of regional corruption cases since 2016.

In addition to members of the Detroit City Council being investigated for possible crimes related to public corruption tied to City towing policies, so are three members of the Detroit Police Department. According to news reports from the Detroit Free Press and Detroit News, at least three members of the Detroit Police Department are suspected of accepting bribes from towing industry figures; no charges have been filed so these unnamed individuals were also not included in the regional public figure count.

In addition,  former Detroit Councilman Gabe Leland pled guilty to misconduct in office in May of 2021, and he resigned from City Council following the plea. Leland’s guilty plea stemmed from him being indicted on federal bribery charges and a felony misconduct in office charge for accepting $15,000 in cash and free car repairs in exchange for his vote on a land deal, according to the FBI. Leland admitted to accepting the cash when he pled guilty.

As corruption charges continue to surface in Detroit, public information from the FBI, news sources and local court documents shows that there have been at least 15 public corruption cases involving Detroit councilmembers or Detroit staffers; this number does not include contractors or business figures who have been involved in these corruption cases. In Wayne County (excluding Detroit), since 2016, there have been four public corruption charges. Wayne County, including Detroit, has the highest number of public corruption charges in the region, and the state, followed by Macomb County.

In Macomb County, the recent names making headlines for alleged public corruption are former Macomb County Prosecuting Attorney Eric Smith, former Macomb County Chief Assistant Prosecutor Ben Liston and suspended Macomb County Assistant Prosecutor Derek Miller. Miller recently asked for the misconduct in office and conspiracy to commit a legal in an illegal manner charges against him to be dropped. This request came because, according to news reports, Miller’s attorney claims there was no criminal intent with his interaction related to the larger case of alleged misuse of forfeiture funds by Smith. The charges still currently stand against Miller though, and Liston pled guilty to embezzlement charges for improper use of forfeiture funds in September of 2021. With this plea he is required to testify against Smith if requested to do so.

As for Smith, he pled guilty to a federal obstruction of justice charge for covering up theft from his campaign fund. While he pled guilting to this federal corruption charge in January of 2021, he has yet to be sentenced, in part because of his ongoing public corruption case with the State Attorney General’s Office. At the state level, Smith has been charged with five counts of embezzlement by a public official, one count conducting a federal enterprise, official misconduct in office, tampering with evidence in a civil proceeding, accessory after the fact to embezzlement by a public official and one count conspiracy to commit forgery, according to the Michigan Attorney General’s Office. Smith’s felony charges from the Michigan Attorney General’s Office are all in relation to alleged misuse of forfeiture funds. The initial charges against Smith were the state charges and occurred in March of 2020, and the federal charges came in September of 2020.

Since 2016 there have been 10 public officials from Macomb County, either the County organization itself or a municipality within its boundaries, who have been charged with alleged public corruption crimes. There are also cases tied to contractors and overall public corruption cases in Macomb County, that were not included in these counts. Many of the cases are related the Rizzo Environmental Services federal case that entangled elected officials, public employees and business figures who owned the business and worked with it.

No other county in the region or the state has had as many corruption cases the as Wayne and Macomb counties. Since 2016 there has been two public corruption cases in Oakland County and one in St. Clair County; no other county in the region has had any cases come to light.

Corruption cases have long riddled the Metro-Detroit region and in an upcoming post we will detail the ones that have been brought to the public eye since 2016. With more likely in the works, it is important to note that strong local journalism, citizen involvement in local government and an understanding of who is being elected can help reduce corruption cases. Of course, the fix is much more complicated than that, and this too will be explored at a later date.

Michigan’s Congressional Districts to Change Soon

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The new Congressional district maps for Michigan have not been finalized, but drafts are in the works, and districts are certain to change.

First off, the process in which Congressional and State House and State Senate districts are drawn has changed. Prior to 2018, the Michigan State Legislature redrew districts using population and demographic data from the US Census Bureau. This process was inherently political and lead to gerrymandered districts, as we highlighted in one of our earliest posts.

Come 2018, a change was mandated when Michigan voters approved the creation of the Michigan Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission. This Commission, which has been regularly meeting and taking public input over the last several months, is led by a bi-partisan citizen group. The MICRC is composed of four Democrats, four Republicans and five independents.

Another change regarding the mapping of Congressional districts was then announced in 2020—Michigan would lose a seat in the US House Representatives-dropping from 14 to 13—due to a shift in population. This is the fifth time in a row Michigan has lost a Congressional seat. This is because that other states have gained substantially more population than Michigan.

 In addition to Michigan losing a Congressional seat so did California, Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York and West Virginia. The states that gained a single seat are: Colorado, Oregon, Montana, North Carolina and Florida. Texas gained two Congressional seats.

The map below shows the percent change in population between 2010 and 2020, according to the Census Bureau. And, while the map doesn’t highlight a significant population loss for Michigan it does show how other areas throughout the country are experiencing more rapid population growth while we remain increased only slightly.

Current MICRC proposals that affect Southeastern Michigan include Oakland County being included in five Congressional districts, as opposed to the four it is currently included in, Wayne County in three or four districts, as opposed to the two it is currently located in, and Macomb County being stretched amongst three or four districts, as opposed to the two it is currently in. All of these are still proposed, and non-finalized, maps of course. But this means shakeups for current members of Michigan’s Congressional Delegation. For example, a proposed map shows that current Congressman Andy Levin and current Congresswoman Brenda Lawrence could be living in the same district. Another proposed shift is for the 10th District, which could include parts of Oakland, Macomb and Genesee counties. The current Congress members who represent parts of that new proposed district are Elissa Slotkin (D-Holly), Dan Kildee (D-Flint) and Lisa McClain (R-Bruce Township). If that proposal were to move forward those current members of Congress could all be vying against each other in the election process.


According to the criteria approved by voters when they approved the MICRC, new district maps must:
·        Comply with the U.S. Voting Rights Act and be of equal population;
·        Be geographically contiguous;
·        Reflect the state’s diverse population and communities of interest;
·        Not provide a disproportionate advantage to any political party;
·        Not favor or disfavor an incumbent;
·        Respect county/municipal borders;
·        Be reasonably compact.
 
While Michigan’s population has changed minimally, there still have been population shifts internally, which will also impact the new Congressional districts.
For example, St. Clair County lost 1.6 percent of its population and Wayne County lost 1.5 percent of its population between 2010 and 2020, while Washtenaw County experienced about an 8 percent population increase, and Livingston County experienced about a 7.5 percent population increase. While Congressional seats don’t include just one county, understanding where the State’s population has shifted does help shed light on how the districts may shift.

The final Congressional District maps will go into play for the 2022 election. Three maps for final consideration must be chosen by the MICRC on Oct. 1, 2021. To leave a comment on the proposed maps or the process visit here.

Sewage Overflows Continue in Southeastern Michigan as Storm Severity Increases

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Summer storms have brought on many issues this year, including flooding and long periods without power. Another affect of the heavy rain though is increased sewage overflow into our local rivers and lakes, which also means increased risk of contaminated waters. The Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes and Energy tracks discharges by three different categories: combined sewer overflow (CSO), sanitary sewer overflow (SSO) and retention treatment basin overflow (RTB). Each of these are  discharges from a sewer system which contains untreated or partially-treated sewage. CSOs are discharges from older sewer systems designed to carry both domestic sewage and storm water, collectively referred to as combined sewage. Retention treatment basins often collect and treat this wastewater from CSOs to help avoid untreated overflows into the environment. However, they too can overflow, leading to an RTB overflow. SSOs are discharges of raw or inadequately treated sewage from municipal separate sanitary sewer systems, which are designed to carry sanitary sewage but not storm water.

Below is data on the type of overflows that have occurred in Southeastern Michigan in 2021 thus far. EGLE tracks this information and presents an annual report; the data for this post is the ongoing data for 2021 and has yet to be digested into a comprehensive report. Overall, the data shows that were have been 84 known and reported discharge events in Michigan in 2021. Of those 84, 37 have occurred in Southeastern Michigan. The charts below provide a deeper look at the type of discharge events, their locations and the responsible parties of the discharge events. 

The above data highlights a few different points, including that the Great Lakes Water Authority (GLWA) had the highest number of discharge events in 2021 thus far; CSO discharge events are the most common; the Detroit River and the Rouge River are recipients of the highest number of discharge events; and August has had the most number of discharge events this far in 2021.

Now, to further break down the data. It should come as no surprise that the GLWA has had the most number of sewage discharge events because of its size. The GLWA is a regional water authority that provides drinking water and sewer service to more than 80 communities in Southeastern Michigan. The GLWA, by way of its formation in 2015, also inherited old infrastructure, which clearly needs updating to help prevent future overflows. For example, the Conner Creek discharge event that occurred during the first major rain storm of the summer, in early July, was a result of a lack redundancies for power. This event was one of the RTB overflow events, as the Conner Creek Pump Station is a CSO basin station, meaning the facility is meant to handle sewage overflow so it doesn’t go into the waterways. However, it does happen, and so far in 2021 there have been 9 such events.

As noted, CSO events occur when the system becomes  overwhelmed by the combined sewage and untreated wastes are directly released into receiving waters, with the Detroit River and the Rouge River being the most common water in Southeastern Michigan. These CSO events are considered intentional because the system was designed to allow overflow into waterways  once capacity of the wastewater treatment plant to store more liquid or process its maximum volume is reached. There are several discharge points in Southeastern Michigan, with the GLWA operating most of them. In total, the GLWA has 9 CSO discharge locations along the Detroit and Rouge Rivers and 62 additional untreated discharge points. Of those 62 untreated discharge points, six  discharge only in the event of an emergency that jeopardizes property (i.e. wide-spread basement flooding). The remainder of the points discharge at varying frequencies. These 62 sites are responsible for about 5 percent of total combined sewer overflow discharge volume. In 2021 there have been 20 CSO events in Southeastern Michigan, 19 of which the GLWA was responsible for and all of which discharged in the Detroit or Rouge rivers.

CSO events are tied to heavy rainfall, which explains why August had the highest number of overflow events. It is predicted that these events will only increase as our climate changes.  This of course is concerning because the overflows are forms of pollutants and release hazardous materials into the environment, causing health, safety and environmental issues.

Ways to help mitigate CSOs include sewer separation, expanding CSO treatment facilities and adding retention basins and investing in green infrastructure (bioswales, rain gardens). Actions are being taken nationally and locally to help better prevent CSOs, but a total overhaul of our water and sewer infrastructure would cost billions upon billions of dollars. So far, the GLWA has invested $1.2 billion in CSO facility upgrades, and while the amount of CSOs has been reduced by 95 percent, they still occur and have long-term affects on the region.

Detroit’s Population Falls in 2020 Census, Oakland and Macomb Counties Continue to Grow

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The numbers are in, and according to 2020 Decennial Census data Michigan’s overall population grew to 10,077,331, but Detroit suffered a population loss for yet another decade. According to the recently released data, Detroit’s 2020 population was recorded at 639,111, a decrease from  the 713,777 2010 Census population. The City of Detroit’s population was at one point larger than every other county’s population in the State of Michigan (1.8 million people in 1950), except for Wayne County (it is located in Wayne County. However, as the first chart below shows, that began to change in 1990 when Oakland County’s population exceeded Detroit’s. Then, in 2010, Macomb County’s population also exceeded Detroit’s population. According to the most recent Census data, Oakland County’s population was  1,274,396 and Macomb County’s population was 881,217 in 2020. Wayne County, including the City of Detroit, still has the largest population in Michigan at 1,793,561. However, Wayne County also continues to lose population, in part because of Detroit’s population loss.

Between 2010 and 2020, the City of Detroit and St. Clair and Wayne counties were the only large units of government to lose members of their population. The City of Detroit had the largest percent loss at 10.5 percent, or 74,666 people. Wayne County experienced a 1.5 percent loss (27,023) and St. Clair County experienced a 1.6 percent loss (2,657). Tax foreclosures have been cited as a reason for the Detroit’s continued population loss.  Note, however, that Detroit lost fewer people in the last decade than the previous decade–74,666 from 2010 to 2020, compared to the 201,530 population loss between 2000 and 2010.  Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan said he plans to appeal the recently released Census numbers for the City, as he firmly believes they are inaccurate. Part of his reasoning? The 2020 Census accounted for 254,000 occupied households but according to DTE there are about 280,000 residential households paying electric bills. In comparing these two data points, there is a discrepancy of 25,000 occupied houses with running electricity—housing units he thinks the Census missed. 

Wayne County officials on the other hand recognize that population loss continued, but chose to see progress since the total loss between 2010 and 2020 was about 27,000 people whereas, between 2000 and 2010, the population loss was about 240,000 residents, so there has been a substantial decline in the loss. According to a recent Free Press article, part of population loss Wayne County experienced was due to the loss Detroit experienced, but that was offset by population gains in other municipalities in Wayne County. Furthermore, a large portion of the State’s population remains concentrated in Wayne County (about 1/5 of the population). 

The population loss experienced by Detroit and Wayne and St. Clair counties was likely the gain for other area counties. According to the data, Washtenaw County experienced an 8 percent population increase between 2010 and 2020 (27,467), Livingston County experienced a 7.1 percent increase (12,899), Oakland County experienced a 6 percent population increase (72,034) and Macomb County experienced a 4.8 percent increase (38,865).

In a future post we will also be looking at the population gains and losses at the municipal level in Southeastern Michigan. A few notable regional gains and losses to mention now though are:

Population Gains Above 20 Percent

•Hamtramck, where the population increased 27 percent between 2010 and 2020 (from 22,423 to 28,433)

•Salem Township, where the population increased 25 percent ( from 5,627 to 7,018);

•Oceala Township, where the population increased 23 percent (from 11,936 to 14,623);

•Lima Township, where the population increased 22 percent (from 3,307 to 4,024)

•Dundee Township, where the population increased 21 percent (from 6,759 to 8,145);

•Saline Township, where the population increased 20 percent (from 1,896 to 2,277);

•Novi Township, where the population increased 20 percent (from 55,224 to 66,243);

Population Losses Above 10 Percent

•Scio Township, where the population decreased by 13 percent between 2010 and 2020 (from 20,0081 to 17,552); •Detroit, where the population decreased by 10.5 percent (from 713,777 to 639,111).

With population changes comes changes in demographics as well. For example, in Detroit, the Hispanic white population grew to make up 9.5 percent of the City’s demographic and the Hispanic or Latino population to grew to makeup 8 percent of the population.

To fully grasp the regional and statewide population gains and losses we needed to understand just who left one area and moved to another. Migration to the suburbs, particularly to Macomb and Oakland counties by the City’s white population, is what initially triggered Detroit’s population loss in the 1950s. This population loss has continued through 2020. Demographic changes have continued through today and with the release of new Census data, Drawing Detroit will show just how Southeastern Michigan, and Michigan overall, has changed in the last decade and beyond.

Southeastern Michigan COVID Update: August 2021

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The era of COVID continues, especially as we again are witnessing a case surge due to the Delta-variant. In Michigan, the level of transmission is now considered substantial, according to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC). The CDC states there are now 71 counties that are places of “substantial” or “high” transmission: Livingston, Monroe, Macomb, Oakland, Washtenaw and Wayne are included in this list. A county is considered to have a substantial transmission rate if there are 50-99 cases per week per 100,000 people and/or a test positivity between 8  and 9.9 percent; all counties in Southeastern Michigan are considered substantial by the CDC, except St. Clair County. A county is considered to have a high transmission rate if there are 100 new cases per week per 100,000 residents, and/or there is a positive test rate of 10 percent or higher. Those Michigan counties that have a high transmission rate are Alpena, Branch, Charlevoix, Huron, Iosco, Kalkaska and Montmorency counties, according to the CDC.

Michigan reported 910,500 total confirmed COVID cases as of Aug. 6, 2021. Of that total 3,962 are confirmed new COVID cases from August 3,4 and 5, 2021 (the State no longer reports case numbers daily).

In Chart 1 we drill down into the number of confirmed COVID cases for Southeastern Michigan, by county and for the City of Detroit; all numbers are represented of a five-day rolling average. The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing and/or the quality of reporting or failure to report. This chart also shows that, while the total number of COVID cases has grown overall since March 2020, there have certainly been surges. We also see that Oakland and Wayne counties continue to have the highest total number of COVID cases. Oakland County had the highest number of confirmed COVID cases at 104,354, followed by Wayne County with 104,090 new cases as of August 4, 2021. The City of Detroit had 52,394 confirmed cases.

Charts 2 and 3 provide a closer look at the number of new COVID cases over time. In Chart 2 we are reminded of the COVID case surges in fall/winter of 2020 and again in spring of 2021. However, as Chart 3 shows with a zoomed in look at the last month. New COVID case numbers are again on the rise. Oakland County had the highest number of new confirmed COVID cases on August 4, 2021 with 100, followed by Wayne County with 82 new cases and Macomb County with 56 new confirmed cases.

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data were supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State. Additionally, the case totals do not reflect the number of people who have recovered, just those who have been infected. In June of 2020 the State changed how it reports its data on the website, making data more accurate in the long-term but more complicated to track as well. The State regularly updates older data, and as we continue to publish regular updates on COVID the State’s changes to past data many not always be reflected in our posts. The data published in this post is accurate for the day we it was received and published though.

The chart below (Chart 4) shows that Macomb County had the highest number of COVID confirmed cases per capita. According to the data released on August 6, 2021 by the State of Michigan, Macomb County had 111,540 COVID cases per million people. St. Clair County had the second highest number of confirmed cases per million people at 95,339. Washtenaw County had the lowest per capita rate at 71,278 confirmed COVID cases per million people.

While the current surge of COVID cases may not numerically appear to be as troubling as what we experienced in the spring and fall, the Delta variant is highly transmissible and a cause for both caution and concern, especially for the unvaccinated. As of last week the variant was confirmed in 40 different Michigan counties.

Gap Between Wages and Housing Affordability Grows in Southeastern Michigan

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The eviction moratorium in place by the Centers for Disease Control ended July 30, and while programs funded through COVID Emergency Rental Assistance program are in place there is a deeper issue to be examined: affordable housing and a national living wage. According to data from the National Low Income Housing Coalition even if there weren’t a pandemic, the ability to obtain affordable housing and the ability to earn an hourly rate to afford housing continues to grow farther apart. In Michigan, according to the report, the average worker needs to earn $18.55 to afford a two-bedroom rental home at fair market value.

The average rule of thumb is that those who rent should spend about 30 percent of their income on their rental unit. In 2019, according to the American Community Survey, the average resident living in Wayne and Monroe counties was already living above that. According to the Census Bureau, the average percentage of gross income spent on rent in Wayne County was 32 percent and in Monroe County it was 30.7 percent. Macomb, St. Clair and Washtenaw counties were all at the 30 percent threshold (29.3%, 29.7% and 29.8%, respectively). Oakland County had the lowest percentage of gross median income spent on rent at 26.8 percent.

Further expanding on the gap between wages and access to housing, the National Low Income Housing Coalition released additional data drilling deeper into the hourly rate an individual would need to make in each county to afford a two-bedroom rental home (at fair market value) and what the current estimated hourly wage rate is for rent.

Washtenaw County has the highest housing wage rate in Southeastern Michigan at $24.31; this is the hourly amount an individual would need to make to afford a two-bedroom rental there. However, the current estimated hourly renter wage in Washtenaw County is $16.92; that is a $7.39 wage gap between current wage conditions and what is needed for local affordable housing security.

Livingston County has the largest gap between the average estimated renter wage and the hourly wage needed to secure a two-bedroom home at fair market value; that gap is $8.51. The current hourly renter wage in Livingston County is $12.26 and the amount needed to secure a two-bedroom home is $20.77.

Monroe County has lowest hourly wage needed to secure a two-bedroom home at $17.29 and the current estimated average hourly renter wage is $12.18, meaning there is a $5.11 gap.

The smallest gap between the hourly wage needed to secure a two-bedroom home and the current estimated average hourly renter wage is in Oakland County; that gap is $1.39. In Oakland County the average estimated current hourly renter wage is $18.78 and the hourly wage needed for a two-bedroom rental home is $20.17.

As the data shows, each county in Southeastern Michigan (and throughout the state), has a gap between the wages individuals earn and what it costs to obtain a home on the rental market. This gap means that many need to work more than 40 hours a week, sometimes closer to two full-time jobs.

In order to bridge this gap many changes need to occur; the two glaring ones would be additional affordable housing options added to the market and an increase in the minimum wage. The minimum wage in Michigan is $9.45, and it was not increased to $9.87 in 2021 because the average unemployment rate for 2020 was more than 8.5 percent. However, there have been pushes both nationally and state-wide to increase the minimum wage to $15 an hour—but that has yet to widely come to fruition. In 2019 though Oakland County did adopt a $15 an hour minimum wage for County employees and Oak Park recently did the same for City employees. As businesses continue to try to attract and retain employees we are also seeing increases in the wages they are offering. However, while individual business and local governments implement living wages policies nothing is guaranteed without broader policies.