In 2020, $19.8 billion was spent at small businesses nationwide on Small Business Saturday, a $2 million increase from the $19.6 billion spent the year prior, according to data released by American Express. The hope is that number will be higher in 2021 as many small and local businesses continue to feel economic effects from the COVID-19 pandemic.
According to the Small Business Administration, $0.68 of every dollar spent at a local business remains in the local economy, or $68 for $100 remains in the local economy. Such investment in a local economy is vital for local success, especially currently as, according to the Nov. 15, 2021 US Census Bureau’s Small Business Pulse Survey, 24 percent of Metro Detroit’s small businesses have experienced a large decline in their business because of COVID; 48 percent have had a moderate negative effect; 18 percent have had little or effect on business because of COVID. As the chart shows, more than 70 percent of small businesses in Metro Detroit experienced a large negative effect from the COVID pandemic when it first began. That number has remained below 31 percent since June of 2021 though while the percentage of small businesses in Metro Detroit experiencing a moderate negative effect due to COVID has remained between 40 and 53 percent since June of 2020. And, while the percentage of small businesses experiencing a moderate negative effect on business has remained fairly consistent for more than a year, it is promising to see the percentage experiencing a large negative effect decreasing while the percentage of those experiencing little to no effect has been increasing.
The fact that more small businesses are experiencing little to no negative impact from COVID can also be seen in the percentage of small businesses in Metro Detroit that closed, according to the Nov. 15 2021 Small Business Pulse Survey. The survey asks respondents if their business either temporarily or permanently closed a location in the previous week. The survey covers almost all private-sector industries, including construction, manufacturing, retail, finance, professional and business services, and leisure and hospitality. According to the Nov. 15 survey, 3.3 percent of small businesses surveyed in Metro Detroit had closed. While that is an increase from the 2.3 percent that closed according to the Oct. 11, 2021 survey, it is a decrease from the 9.2 percent that closed about a year ago.
While data does show optimistic signs for a recovering economy, there are still many areas in which small businesses need assistance in to ensure success.
According to the Oct. 11 2021 Small Business Pulse Survey, the largest need for local small businesses in Metro Detroit is to identify and hire new employees. According to the survey, 49 percent of the local small businesses survey said they need to identify and hire new employees for their future success. In the Nov. 15 survey, 39 percent of small business Metro Detroit respondents said they needed to obtain additional financial assistance or capital for future success, 38 percent said they need to develop online sales or web sites and 27 percent needs to develop more supply chain options.
So, while there are signs of economic recovery of for small businesses there are still many needs for their future, and long-term success. Despite an unemployment rate of 6.1 percent in Michigan, there is still a need for employees. As we have discussed prior, living wages are means to attract employees, along with benefits that support employees’ physical and mental health. Navigating the supply chain is a much more difficult concept, as mega-retailers such as Amazon and Walmart continue to be leaders of the pack because of their buying power. However, this could lead to the argument that, given the opportunity, small businesses should fill their inventory with local goods—that is much easier said than done though. Locally made items are much different than items bought from a local store.
The issues surrounding the local economy can be complex, but we can all do our part and invest in small businesses in the holiday season, and year-round. Supporting local not only gives a local business and a local family a chance to survive, but it also strengthens the identity and success of a community.
A lot of expectations come with being elected President of the United States, and the citizens of Detroit want President Joe Biden’s top priority to be continuing to navigate the COVID-19 pandemic.
According to the 2021 Detroit Resident Survey conducted by the Wayne State Center for Urban Studies between Jan. 15 and March 1, 2021, 39 percent of respondents said COVID-19 should be President Biden’s top issue. Respondents, all who are Detroit citizens, were asked to choose from a list of 10 priorities on what they believe should be the top. Of the 571 respondents to this question 225, or 39 percent, said it should be COVID-19. Livable wages, racism, access to affordable health care, police brutality and quality education were all separate priorities that each received 9 percent of the vote as to what Biden’s top priority should be.
As of March 28, 2021 an ABC News/Ipsos poll found that President Biden received a 72 percent national approval rating for his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, the same ABC News article states 75 percent of Americans back how the President is handling the distribution of COVID vaccines. In the State of Michigan 653,659 COVID-19 cases were confirmed as of March 27, 2021 and in Detroit 32,998 COVID cases have been confirmed. In terms of vaccine distribution, according to the State of Michigan, 18 percent of residents are fully vaccinated and 31 percent of residents have started the process. Furthermore, 9.5 percent of Detroit residents are fully vaccinated and 17.6 percent have started the process, according to the City of Detroit Health Department.
While vaccination numbers continue to rise in Detroit and the State of Michigan, so do COVID numbers. On March 26, 2021 there were 4,670 new cases in Michigan and a 10 percent positivity rate, the highest recorded since December 2020.
Aside from COVID infections and deaths, economic and education issues related to the disease loom too. In February of 2021 the Michigan unemployment rate was 5.2 percent and in Detroit the unemployment rate was 11.4 percent in January of 2021 (the most recent data at the local level). And, just as soon as schools began to open, several districts are again moving back to online learning in response to the uptick in COVID cases.
While Detroit citizens have opinions of what Biden’s top priorities as President should be they also expressed opinions on the following in the 2021 Detroit Resident Survey:
What they feel the state of leadership is at the federal, state and local level;
How Detroit officials can best serve their citizens;
What their top household and community concerns and problems are;
What the barriers to finding employment and building wealth are;
The responses to these issues will be further explored this week in additional blog posts.
All response data in this post and in upcoming posts are from the 2021 Detroit Resident Survey conducted by the Wayne State University Center for Urban Studies, with the assistance of the MDPBlack Caucus. The survey was based on a random sample of about 20,000 households whose information was purchased from a business marketing vendor. The households were distributed throughout Detroit and where available, the vendor provided landlines, mobile telephone numbers associated with each household. Survey interviewers reached 953 individuals, 678 of whom confirmed they were Detroit residents. The Survey Findings are based on weighted totals and statistics to achieve representative findings. Respondents received a chance to be randomly selected to receive one of 10 $50 visa gift cards.
Michigan reported 1,016 new COVID cases on Oct. 7, 2020, bringing the total number of cases Michigan reported to 130,842. In Chart 1 we show that the State total for the number of COVID cases on Oct. 5 was 129,077–a five-day rolling average. The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing and/or the quality of reporting or failure to report.
Chart 2 shows that, based on the five-day rolling averages, the growth of new COVID cases in Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties continues to increase at higher rates than the other counties in the region and than Detroit, which once had the highest number cases until late July. Wayne County’s case numbers surpassed Detroit then, Oakland County’s case numbers surpassed Detroit in mid-August and Macomb County’s case numbers surpassed Detroit’s this month. On Oct. 5, Wayne County reported the highest number of cases in the region at 19,031. Oakland County reported 17,192 cases and Macomb County reported 14,754. Detroit reported 14,597 COVID cases on Oct. 5
In addition to having the highest number of total COVID cases Wayne County in the region, Charts 3 and shows that it also had the highest number of daily cases on Sept. 21. Wayne County reported 25 new cases on Oct. 5, as did Macomb County. For at least the last week Wayne and Macomb counties have reported the highest number of new daily confirmed cases regionally. On Oct. 5 Oakland County reported 16 new cases and Detroit reported 10 new cases; these numbers may not have been fully updated by the State at the time of reporting. For example, on Oct. 4 the five-day rolling average for the number of new confirmed cases for Wayne County was 85, for Macomb County it was 78, for Oakland County it was 77 and for Detroit it was 25.
The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data were supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State. Additionally, the case totals do not reflect the number of people who have recovered, just those who have been infected. In early June the State changed how it reports its data on the website, making data more accurate in the long-term but more complicated to track as well. The State regularly updates older data and as we continue to publish regular updates on COVID the State’s changes to past data many not always be reflected in our posts. The data published in new posts is accurate for the day we received it on though.
In Chart 4, the five-day rolling average for the number of deaths, shows the number of deaths in the State of Michigan reached 6,821 on Oct. 5. The actual cumulative COVID-19 deaths on Oct. 7 was 6,847, an increase of 8 deaths from the prior day. Chart 5 (a 5-day rolling average) further hones in on how majority the number of COVID related deaths has continued to remain flat for some time in Southeastern Michigan. On Oct. 5, the City of Detroit reported 1,537 deaths. Wayne County had the second highest total at 1,296 deaths on Oct. 5.
Michigan continues to battle the pandemic and while the recent Michigan Supreme Court ruling has left several answers about the Governor’s executive orders answered, one thing remains certain. We all must continue to wear masks, keep a responsible distance from others and respect scientific facts. Although the Governor’s orders are set to expire at the end of this month, the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services has since issued an order mandating masks, and certain local government units have followed suit.
The number of COVID cases in Michigan has flattened over the last several months, but as daily data show new cases continue to be reported. On June 22, the State of Michigan reported a total of 61,609 cases, an increase of 179 cases from the day prior. The daily total was equivalent to 615 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 4). Of those 179 cases, 61 were documented in Southeastern Michigan. In total, 34 percent of the new COVID cases were in Southeastern Michigan, meaning case numbers are increasing at a higher rate outside of the region than locally. In Chart 1 we show that the State total for the number of COVID cases on June 20 was 61,034–a five-day rolling average. The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing and/or the quality of reporting or failure to report. This continues to be important as the State of Michigan regularly updates its past COVID data and not all State changes can continuously be updated here.
Chart 2 shows that, based on the five-day rolling averages, the growth of new COVID cases in Southeastern Michigan has been increasing at a much slower pace compared to previous months. However, Detroit and Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties continue to add cases. On June 20 the number of cases in Detroit reached 11,376, the highest in the region, and Wayne County reported the second highest number of cases at 9,946. On June 20, the five-day rolling average for the number of COVID cases in Oakland County was 8,864, and Macomb County reported 6,974.
The City of Detroit had 1,694 COVID cases per 100,000 people as of June 20, an increase from 1,692 on June 19 (Chart 3). This is based upon a reported increase of 13 new COVID cases since June 19, bringing the total number of COVID cases in Detroit to 11,394. Wayne County reported 926 cases per 100,000 people, and Oakland County had 690 cases per 100,000 people. These per capita rates were based upon 9,970 total cases for Wayne and for 8,674 Oakland. Macomb County reported 799 cases per 100,000 people, which is based upon 6,983 cases.
The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data were supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State. Additionally, the case totals do not reflect the number of people who have recovered, just those who have been infected. In early June the State changed how it reports its data on the website, making data more accurate in the long-term but more complicated to track as well. The State regularly updates older data and as we continue to publish regular updates on COVID the State’s changes to past data many not always be reflected in our posts. The data published in new posts is accurate for the day we received it on though.
Chart 4 shows that Wayne County reported the highest number of daily cases, according to the five-day rolling average, at 13 on June 20. Detroit reported 8 new daily cases while Oakland County reported 6 and Macomb County reported 3. As Map 1 shows, Detroit and Wayne and Macomb counties all reported a lower number of new daily cases on June 20 than what the average was for last week (June 11-18). For example, last week Detroit averaged 12 new COVID cases and on June 20 it reported 8. Oakland County though had an average of 0.6 new cases last week and reported 6 new cases on June 20 through 5-day rolling average calculations. So, while there are signs the number of new cases are declining regionally, the data also shows that nowhere is immune from having its numbers increase again.
On June 22, the per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people was 2 for the State, which was equivalent to 179 new cases. On June 22, Detroit and Monroe and Washtenaw counties all reported the same per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people as the State-2. Detroit’s per capita rate of 2 was equivalent to 13 new cases per 100,000 people, based on an actual number of cases. St. Clair County reported a per capita rate of 3 and the remaining counties all reported per capita rates of 1. Wayne County’s per capita rate of 1 was equivalent to 22 new cases, the highest in the region that day. The second map below (Map 2) shows that while Detroit’s per capita rate on June 22 is on par with its average rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people for the week of June 11-18, St. Clair County is experiencing higher numbers this week than last. St. Clair County had a per capita rate of 3 on June 22 and an average per capita rate of 0.8 last week.
Chart 4 shows that Wayne County reported the highest number of daily cases, according to the five-day rolling average, at 13 on June 20. Detroit reported 8 new daily cases while Oakland County reported 6 and Macomb County reported 3. As Map 1 shows, Detroit and Wayne and Macomb counties all reported a lower number of new daily cases on June 20 than what the average was for last week (June 11-18). For example, last week Detroit averaged 12 new COVID cases and on June 20 it reported 8. Oakland County though had an average of 0.6 new cases last week and reported 6 new cases on June 20 through 5-day rolling average calculations. So, while there are signs the number of new cases are declining regionally, the data also shows that nowhere is immune from having its numbers increase again.
On June 22, the per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people was 2 for the State, which was equivalent to 179 new cases. On June 22, Detroit and Monroe and Washtenaw counties all reported the same per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people as the State-2. Detroit’s per capita rate of 2 was equivalent to 13 new cases per 100,000 people, based on an actual number of cases. St. Clair County reported a per capita rate of 3 and the remaining counties all reported per capita rates of 1. Wayne County’s per capita rate of 1 was equivalent to 22 new cases, the highest in the region that day. The second map below (Map 2) shows that while Detroit’s per capita rate on June 22 is on par with its average rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people for the week of June 11-18, St. Clair County is experiencing higher numbers this week than last. St. Clair County had a per capita rate of 3 on June 22 and an average per capita rate of 0.8 last week.
In Chart 6, the five-day rolling average for the number of deaths in Michigan shows how they have leveled off during the month of June. On June 20 there were 5,837 deaths (an increase of 12 deaths from the day prior). The actual cumulative COVID-19 deaths on June 22 was 5,853, an increase of 7 deaths from the prior day. Of those deaths that occurred, 4 were in Southeastern Michigan.
Chart 7 (a 5-day rolling average) further reflects how the number of deaths has leveled off in the State and Southeastern Michigan. On June 20 the City of Detroit reported 1,428 deaths, and while it is still the highest number in the region, that number has only increased by 25 total deaths since June 8. Wayne County had the second highest total at 1,141 deaths on June 20; Wayne County had 1,120 deaths on June 8.
The per capita rates for the number of total COVID deaths in Southeastern Michigan remained the same for each entity on June 22; these rates have all remained the same since June 14. Detroit reported 212 total COVID deaths per 100,000 people (1,428 deaths), Wayne County reported a per capita rate of 106 (1,143 deaths), Macomb County reported a per capita rate of 99 (862 deaths) and Oakland County reported a per capita rate of 82 (1,037 deaths).
Chart 9, the five day rolling average of deaths, shows the number of new statewide deaths was reported at 12 on June 20, an increase from the 11 new deaths reported the day before. While the number new statewide deaths did slightly increase on June 20, the overall number has not gone above 18 since June 10. In mid-April the number of new deaths in Michigan reached a peak at 145. Furthermore, Chart 10 shows how the number of deaths in Southeastern Michigan continues to decline, a trend we are eager to see continue. Oakland and Wayne counties each reported 1 new death, the highest in the region. These numbers are based on 5-day rolling averages. As the map below shows, Detroit and each county in the region experienced a decrease in the number of deaths from June 20 and the average number of deaths last week. Wayne County had the highest average number of deaths from the week of June 11 to 18 at 1.1, and on June 20 it was reported at 1. Detroit averaged 0.4 deaths last week and reported 0 new deaths on June 20.
While we know that the number of COVID cases and deaths has decreased throughout the month of June we also continue to see spikes in new cases periodically in different areas throughout the State. For example, note how majority of the number of new cases reported in Michigan on June 22 were from outside the State’s most populate region. Additionally, Southeastern Michigan has been the last area in the State to loosen restrictions. Overall, Michigan has experienced a recent uptick in the number of new cases. According to Mlive, the seven average for new COVID cases this week is 192 and last week it was 152. So, while the data shows that the curve has certainly flattened it also reflects how abiding by health recommendations set forth by the Centers for Disease Control plays a large role in flattening that curve.
On June 1, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer lifted the Stay-at-Home Order and several restrictions for retail, restaurants and bars and other businesses because the State has seen a serious improvement in the number of new daily cases and deaths, meaning the curve has flattened.
According to the State of Michigan, the total number of COVID cases in Michigan rose to 57,532 on June 1, an increase of 135 cases from the previous day. The daily total was equivalent to 576 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 4). Of those 135 cases, 57 were documented in Southeastern Michigan, which was equal to 42 percent of the new cases. In Chart 1 we show that the State total for the number of COVID cases on May 30 was 56,890–a five-day rolling average. The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing and/or the quality of reporting or failure to report.
Chart 2 shows that, based on the five-day rolling averages, the growth of new COVID cases in Southeastern Michigan continued to level off for the counties in the region, likely one of the many factors as to why Whitmer decided to moved forward in lifting the Stay-at-Home Order. On May 30, the number of cases in Detroit reached 10,974, the highest in the region, and Wayne County reported the second highest number of cases at 9,307. On May 30, the five-day rolling average for the number of COVID cases in Oakland County was 8,343, and Macomb County reported 6,646.
The City of Detroit had 1,644 COVID cases per 100,000 people as of June 1, an increase from 1,641 the day before (Chart 3). This is based upon a reported increase of 17 new COVID cases, bringing the total number of COVID cases in Detroit to 11,058. Wayne County reported 872 cases per 100,000 people, and Oakland County had 669 cases per 100,000 people. These per capita rates were based upon 9,388 total cases for Wayne and for 8,407 Oakland. Macomb County reported 767 cases per 100,000 people, which is based upon 6,707 cases.
The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data were supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State. Additionally, the case totals do not reflect the number of people who have recovered, just those who have been infected.
Chart 4 shows that Wayne County, among the units covered here, reported the highest number of daily cases at 52 on May 30 and Detroit reported 37 new cases. The numbers reported in this chart reflect a five-day rolling average.
On June 1, the per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people was 1 for the State, which was equivalent to 135 new cases. The State’s June 1 per capita rate was a decrease from the day prior, which is when the number of new cases nearly doubled. Just as the State’s per capita rate dropped so did the City of Detroit’s. On May 31, Detroit reported 14 new COVID cases per 100,000 people, and on May 1 it reported a rate of 3. Detroit’s increased rate was equivalent to 17 new cases (Chart 5). Wayne County reported 1 new COVID case per 100,000 people, which was equivalent to 14 new cases. Oakland and Macomb counties also each reported per capita rates of 1 new case per 100,000 people on June 1, which were equivalent to 11 and 12 new cases, respectively. Overall, 57 new COVID cases were reported in Southeastern Michigan on June 1. This is a decline of 263 from the day prior.
In Chart 6, the five-day rolling average for the number of deaths in Michigan shows a continuing slow increase (a lagged number of 5,450 deaths, an increase of 36 deaths). The actual reported COVID-19 deaths on June 1 was 5,516, an increase of 25 deaths from the day prior. Of those 25 deaths Southeastern Michigan accounted for 12 of them.
Chart 7 (a 5-day rolling average) portrays how Detroit continues to report the highest cumulative number of deaths at 1,365 on May 30. Wayne County had the second highest total at 1,077 on May 30.
Chart 8 portrays the total number of COVID deaths per 100,000 people on June 1. The cumulative total of COVID deaths per 100,000 people remained the same for Detroit and all the counties in the region due to the small increases in the number of deaths, which totaled 12 for all of Southeastern Michigan. In Detroit the per capita rate remained at 204 (representing 1,375 deaths). In Wayne County there were 101 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (1,088 total deaths). In Oakland County there were 79 deaths per 100,000 people (988 total deaths), and in Macomb County there were 93 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (814 total). Macomb County had the highest single day death count in Southeastern Michigan on June 1; 4 COVID deaths were reported. The State of Michigan had 55 COVID deaths per 100,000 people, which was equal to 5,516 total deaths. The State’s per capita rate did increase by 1.
Chart 9, the five day rolling average of deaths, shows the number of new statewide deaths declined to 36 on May 30. Furthermore, Chart 10 shows how the number of deaths in Southeastern Michigan declined. Detroit reported 6 daily COVID deaths, as did Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties on May 30. The 6 daily deaths in each of those three counties and Detroit were the highest reported in the region. These numbers are based on five-day rolling averages.
The fatality rate trends continued in Southeastern Michigan on June 1 with the State reporting a fatality rate of 9.6 percent for two weeks straight, Detroit continuing to report a fatality rate of 12.4 percent and Macomb County reporting a fatality rate of 12.1 percent for another day.
One reason we may be seeing such high fatality rates in Michigan is due to the low testing rates. When only having-presumably-a lower of number confirmed COVID cases than is actually likely due to the limited availability of tests, the fatality rate appears higher because the base comparison is smaller than it might be.
Although the Stay-at-Home Order has been lifted and business restrictions have been loosened to the point where many can open with capacity limitations, there are still concerns of a second wave. This is why policies to wear masks inside and work from home when possible are still encouraged. We must find a balance to ensure the health and safety of our communities remain a priority while opening the economy.
According to the State of Michigan, the total number of COVID cases in Michigan rose to 47,138, an increase of 382 cases from the previous day. This total was equivalent to 472 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 4) on May 10. The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing and/or the quality of reporting or failure to report. That curve continues to trend upward, but the number of new COVID cases identified each day in Southeastern Michigan has been steadily decreasing for about a month. Detroit reported the highest number of daily cases at 72 on May 8 (Chart 3). Note that this five day rolling average causes these daily case and daily death charts to lag two days behind.
Chart 2 shows how that while the curve is flattening in Southeastern Michigan, based on the five-day rolling averages, there are still small increases in the total number of COVID cases in Southeastern Michigan. The number of cumulative COVID cases remains the highest in Detroit at 9,649 on May 8, with Wayne County following at a reported 8,170 cases. On May 8, the five-day rolling average for the number of COVID cases in Oakland County was 7,658, and Macomb County reported 5,946.
The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data were supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State.
The City of Detroit had 1,455 COVID cases per 100,000 people on May 10, an increase from 1,443 the day before (Chart 4). This is based upon a reported increase of 77 new cases, bringing the total number of COVID cases in Detroit to 9,786. Wayne County reported 1,232 cases per 100,000 people, and Oakland County had 1,150 cases per 100,000 people. These per capita rates were based upon 8,289 total cases for Wayne and 7,736 for Oakland. Macomb County reported 898 cases per 100,000 people, which is based upon 6,042 cases.
Chart 5 shows that the per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people remained fairly stable for Detroit over the last few days. Detroit’s rate was reported at 11 new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people on May 10 (equal to 77 new cases), an increase from 9 the day before. Oakland and St. Clair counties were the only other two government entities that reported a rate increase between May 9 and May 10; both entities reported per capita rates of 3 new cases per 100,000 people. Oakland County reported 44 new COVID cases on May 10 while St. Clair County reported 4 new cases. Wayne County reported a per capita rate of 4 new cases per 100,000 people on May 10, which was equivalent to 38 new cases, and Macomb County reported a rate of 3, which was equivalent to 23 new cases. Over the weekend (May 9 and 10) the 77 new cases Detroit reported on May 10 was the highest number across these local governments.
The State’s per capita rate was 3.8 new cases per 100,000 people, equivalent to 382 new cases. In total, of the 680 new cases, Southeastern Michigan accounted for 195 of them.
In Chart 6 the five-day rolling average for the number of deaths shows a continuing steady increase (a lagged number of 4,413 deaths, an increase of 74 deaths). The actual reported COVID-19 deaths reached 4,551 on May 10, an increase of 25 deaths from the day prior. Of those 25 daily deaths reported on May 10, 18 were in Southeastern Michigan. Overall, the 25 daily deaths reported on May 10 is the lowest number that has been reported in the State since March. On May 9 the State reported 133 additional deaths, however 67 of those were added to the May 9 total as a result of comparing death certificates and the State’s COVID database. The number of additional COVID deaths reported on Sunday was a substantial decrease in reported daily deaths. We hope that this is a trend that will continue, however recently COVID data reported to the State over the weekend is lower than what is reported during the week.
Chart 7 portrays how the total number of COVID deaths in Southeastern Michigan continues to increase, but that rate has been gradually declining overall, showing that the curve is slowly starting to flatten. The rate at which the number of deaths is increasing in Detroit and Wayne and Oakland counties has been hovering in the mid-teens for the last several days. Detroit continues to have the highest cumulative number of COVID deaths though, inching toward 1,200.
Chart 8 shows that the number of daily deaths in Michigan continues to decline overall, despite a small uptick late last week. On May 8 though the numbers decreased again. Chart 9 shows that Detroit and Oakland and Macomb counties contributed to the decrease in the total number of daily deaths in Michigan. Detroit reported 16 daily deaths, while Oakland County reported 14 additional deaths and Macomb reported 10. None of those entities reported a decline of more than 2 deaths from the day prior. Aside from those three entities, the other five counties in Southeastern Michigan reported the same number of additional deaths as the day prior, further showing that the curve is in fact flattening.
Chart 10 portrays the total number of COVID deaths per 100,000 people. As of May 10, the cumulative total of COVID deaths per 100,000 people in Detroit was 176 (representing 1,187 deaths). In Wayne County there were 135 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (910 total deaths), in Oakland County there were 125 deaths per 100,000 people (843 total deaths), and in Macomb County there were 104 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (698 total).
The State of Michigan had 45 COVID deaths per 100,000 people, a rate that continues to remain lower than the four entities discussed above.
The fatality rate for Detroit and Macomb, Oakland and Macomb counties reached 11 percent or higher on May 10, with Detroit having the highest rate at 12.2 percent. The State’s fatality rate also gradually increased to 9.7 percent.
One reason we may be seeing such high fatality rates in Michigan is due to the low testing rates. When only having-presumably-a lower of number confirmed COVID cases than is actually likely due to the limited availability of tests, the fatality rate appears higher because the base comparison is smaller than it might be.
While the State reported its lowest number of daily deaths since March on May 10 (25), it also reported that 22,686 people have recovered from the virus. These statistics coupled with the fact that the curves for the total number of COVID cases and deaths are flattening show signs that we are beginning to overcome the virus. However, the key word is beginning. Many of those who have been deemed as “recovered” are still battling longer-term affects from the virus, according to a recent Free Press article. Additionally, just because the curve is flattening now doesn’t mean there won’t be another spike in cases and deaths in the future. This could very easily happen if the Stay-at-Home order is broken too soon or people begin to disregard other health recommendations, such as wearing a mask in public and/or congregating in groups. Ultimately, the risk of community spread for the virus remains high and the long-term effects once someone is infected still remain fairly unknown. This is why we must continued to heed the recommendations set forth by the Centers for Disease Control and the State.
According to the State of Michigan, the
total number of COVID cases in Michigan rose to 43,754, an increase of 547
cases from the previous day. This total was equivalent to 438
cases per
100,000 people
(Chart 4) on May
3. The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1)
reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing and/or the
quality of reporting or failure to report. That curve continues to move steadily
upward, with the rate of increase veering up over the weekend. Note that this
five day rolling average causes these
daily case and the daily death charts to lag two days behind.
Chart 2 reflects the
five-day rolling averages at the County level and for the City of Detroit.
The number of COVID cases in Detroit continue to increase and remain the
highest in the region; the City reported 9,168 as of May 1. Wayne County
continues to pull away from the other counties in the region, having the second
highest cumulative number of cases at 7,751. On May 1 the five-day rolling
average for the number of COVID cases in Oakland County was 7,368, and for
Macomb County the reported number was 5,598.
Chart 3 shows that Detroit again had the highest number
of new daily cases on May 1 but the overall rate of change was
slightly downward. Wayne and Oakland counties experienced a decrease in the
number of new confirmed COVID cases while Macomb County experienced an
increase.
The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data were supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State.
The City of Detroit had
1,395 COVID cases per 100,000
people on May
1, an
increase from 1,380 the
day before (Chart 4).
This is based upon a
reported increase of 106
new cases, bringing the total number of COVID cases in Detroit to 9,386. Wayne
County reported 1,176
cases per
100,000 people,
and Oakland
County had 1,118
cases
per 100,000
people. These May 3 per capita rates were based upon 7,912 total cases for
Wayne and 7,518 for Oakland. Macomb County reported 856 cases per 100,000
people, which is based upon 5,756 cases.
Chart 5 shows that Detroit continues to
have the highest number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people, but
experienced a decline on May 3 while Macomb and Wayne counties experienced an
increase. Detroit had 16 new COVID cases per 100,000 people, which was
equivalent to 106 new cases. Wayne County had 8 new cases per 100,000 people on
May 3, which was equivalent to 86 new cases, and Macomb County had 10
new cases per 100,000 people, which was equivalent to 90 new cases. Oakland County also experienced a decline
in the per capita rate for new daily COVID cases. On May 3, Oakland had 3 new
COVID cases per 100,000 people, equating to 43 new cases.
The State’s per capita rate was 5.4 new cases per 100,000 people, equivalent to 547 new cases.
In Chart 6 the five-day rolling
average for the number of deaths shows a continuing steady increase (a lagged
number of 3,879 deaths, an increase of 60 deaths). The actual reported COVID-19
deaths reached 4,049 on May 3, an increase
of 29
deaths from
the day prior.
Chart 7, a five-day rolling average chart, shows the number of daily additional
deaths has been declining overall since April 23. The trends in Chart 9 further
show a clear pattern of decline in the number of additional daily deaths across
Detroit and the counties of Southeastern Michigan.
Chart 8, a five-day rolling average
for the number of cumulative COVID deaths by each county, shows how the number
of deaths in Detroit continue to rise at a more rapid rate than any of the
other government entities in the region. However, the City’s rate of increase
has declined in the last few days, and may continue to do so as the number of
new deaths in the City also continue to decline. Despite this, Detroit also
continues to have the highest number of COVID deaths. Second to Detroit, Wayne
County has the highest number of total reported COVID deaths, and those numbers
are increasing at a rate faster than Macomb and Oakland counties. Of the three
largest counties and Detroit, Macomb County’s total number of COVID deaths is
increasing at the slowest rate.
Chart 9 shows a steep decline in
the number of daily deaths in Detroit, a decline that has been occurring since
April 23. This continued decline put Wayne and Oakland counties ahead of
Detroit for the number of daily COVID deaths. The most recent drop in the
number of additional daily deaths for Detroit may reflect a a lag in reporting,
however. On May 3 Detroit didn’t report any new deaths, which has not happened
since the first reported COVID death in March.
Chart 10 represents the total number of COVID deaths per 100,000 people. For Detroit on May 3 there were 161 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (representing 1,085 deaths). In Wayne County there were 120 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (808 total deaths), in Oakland County there were 113 deaths per 100,000 people (757 total deaths), and in Macomb County there were 93 COVID deaths per 1000,000 people on May 3 (628 total). The State of Michigan had 41 COVID deaths per 100,000 people, a rate that continues to remain lower than the four entities discussed above. On May 3 Oakland County reported the highest number of additional deaths at 12; the State of Michigan had 29 deaths reported total.
The case fatality rate in Detroit remained above 11 percent (11.6%) on May 3 while Macomb County’s dipped just below (10.9%). Washtenaw County has been experiencing a recent increase in its fatality rate. On May 3 Washtenaw County had a fatality rate of 6.4 percent. The reported fatality rate for the State on May 3 was 9.3 percent.
The number of new COVID deaths continues to decrease around the region. However, Detroit didn’t report any new deaths on Sunday, May 3, and this has not happened since the first reported COVID death. Despite this, the data does show the number of COVID deaths has been declining in Detroit, the region and the State.
According to the State of Michigan, the
total number of COVID cases in Michigan increased to 38,210
on April 28, which was an increase of 432 cases from the previous day. This
total was equivalent to 393
cases per
100,000 people
(Chart 4) on
April 28.
The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1)
reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing or the
quality of reporting or failure to report. The five day rolling average means our daily case and death charts will lag two
days behind. Based on this approach, the COVID cases increased to 37,819.
While the increase in the number of cases has slowed down, both Charts 1 and 2
show that we have yet to reach a plateau at the State level and for the largest
counties in Southeastern Michigan. In Chart 2 it appears the counties (Wayne,
Oakland and Macomb) and Detroit are experiencing a slower rate of increase now
than the State of Michigan, but the increase is still there. The State’s
continued increase is likely a result of increased COVID spread in areas such
as Kent
County,
where health officials said they don’t expect a peak for another few weeks,
according to Bridge Magazine.
Chart 2 reflects the five-day rolling
averages at the County level and for the City of Detroit. Detroit continues to
have the highest number of confirmed cases, recorded at 8,625 on April 26. The number of cases in Wayne County increased
to 7,125 for a five-day rolling average on April 26 while in Oakland County the
number of cases increased to 6,908 and in Macomb County it increased to 5,210.
Chart 3 does show though an overall
decline in the number of new daily COVID cases, with exception of a couple
single day spikes for Detroit, Oakland, Macomb, Washtenaw and Wayne counties.
With the continued increase in attempts to test more people for the virus it is
very likely these spikes are a result of increased testing.
The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data was supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State.
The City of Detroit had
1,310 COVID cases per 100,000
people on April 28,
an
increase from 1,290
the
day before (Chart 4).
This is based upon a
reported increase of 132
new cases, bringing the total number of COVID cases in Detroit to 8,811. Wayne
County reported 1,094
cases
per 100,000 people, and Oakland
County had 1,042
cases
per 100,000.
These per capita rates were based upon 7,362 and 7,012 COVID cases on April 28,
respectively. Macomb County reported 794 cases per 100,000 people, which is
based upon 5,339 cases.
Chart 5 shows that Detroit and Wayne County had the highest number of new COVID cases per 100,000 people on April 28. Detroit had 20 new COVID cases on April 28 per 100,000, which was equivalent to 132 new cases, and Wayne County had 16 new cases per 100,000 people which was equivalent to 169 new cases.
In Chart 6 the five-day rolling
average for the number of deaths shows a continuing steady increase (a lagged
number of 3,330 deaths, an increase of 118 deaths). The actual reported COVID-19
deaths reached 3,567 on April 28,
an
increase of 160 deaths from the day prior.
Of the 160 reported new deaths, 40 of them were added to the April 28 daily
total because of Vital Records and coronavirus database comparison the Michigan
Department of Health and Human Services does three times a week. Chart 7, a
five-day rolling average chart, reflects a smoother data set for instances such
as this. Overall, Chart 7 indicates a recent decline in the number of new daily
COVID deaths.
Chart 8, a five-day rolling average
for the number of COVID deaths by each county, shows that the total number of
deaths in Detroit continues to have a far higher rate of increase than the
other units. Wayne County is second, followed by Oakland and Macomb counties.
Each county but Monroe and St. Clair experienced an increase in the total
number of deaths. These increases continue to be represented in Chart 9, but
show a recent decline in the number of daily deaths for Detroit and Oakland
County. Macomb County on the other hand has experienced a recent increase.
Chart 10 represents the total number of COVID deaths per 100,000 people. For Detroit on April 28 there were 147 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (representing 988 deaths). In Wayne County there were 103 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (694 total deaths), in Oakland County there were 97 deaths per 100,000 people (654 total deaths) and in Macomb County there were 85 COVID deaths per 1000,000 people on April 28 (572 total). The State of Michigan had 36 COVID deaths per 100,000 people, a rate which was lower than the four entities discussed above. Additionally, Macomb County experienced the highest number of new daily COVID deaths at 45 on April 28; Detroit had 38 new deaths.
The fatality rate in the City of the Detroit increased to 11.2 percent on April 28, which is higher than the State’s fatality rate (9.1 percent) and the rates of the counties in Southeastern Michigan. The fatality rate in Macomb County also spiked up on April 28 to 10.7 percent. The increases in these rates may be reflective of the additional 40 deaths the State reported on April 28 as a result of their database comparison method to discover additional COVID deaths. Monroe and Washtenaw counties experienced small decreases in their fatality rates.
The rate at which the virus is spreading in Southeastern Michigan appears to be declining at a faster rate than the spread statewide. This is likely because areas such as Kent County are not expecting their peak until mid-May. Such factors will certainly a play a role in determining what regions of the state will re-open when. Just because one area lags behind in terms of the rate of spread does not mean another area can’t experience a second peak due to travel, even within the state.
The total number of COVID cases
in Michigan increased
to 37,778
on April 26 (Chart
1),
compared to 37,203 the day before; this was a 575
daily case increase. This was equivalent to 378
cases per
100,000 people (Chart 2) on April 26.
In Chart 2, and subsequent Charts
throughout this post (Charts 4, 9, 12, 15), you will also see the five-day
rolling averages for the number of confirmed cases and deaths throughout the
State and Southeastern Michigan. By using a 5-day simple moving average we
are able to smooth out
the data,
making it less sensitive to changes in testing. This formula helps to adjust
for changes or increasing in testing or fluctuations in the quality of
reporting or failure to report. Technically, we take information from the
two days before and two days after in addition to information from the reported
data from each day and
sum that information and divide by 5. On April 24, which is the most recent
data we have for the
5-day
rolling average, the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the Michigan
was 36,176.
The total number of COVID cases reported
to date in the City of
Detroit reached
8,613 on April 26. Wayne County
(excluding Detroit) had 7,135
cases, Oakland County
had 6,928
cases,
and Macomb
County had 5,203
cases (Chart
3).
The number
of confirmed cases in Washtenaw, Livingston, Monroe and St. Clair counties
combined totaled 1,892,
a 50 case increase since Friday.
Chart 4 reflects the 5-day rolling
averages at the County level and for the City of Detroit. As was shown in Chart
3, Detroit continues to have the highest number of confirmed cases, recorded at
8,395 on April 24. Oakland and Wayne counties follow similar trends in these
daily reports. On April 24 Oakland County had 6,742 cases and Wayne County had
6,856 cases.
The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data was supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State.
people on April 26, an increase from
1,271 the day before (Chart 5). Wayne County reported 1,061 cases per 100,000
people, and Oakland County’s cases per 100,000 was 1,030. Macomb County
had 773
COVID cases
per 100,000 people.
Wayne County experienced the highest increase at 20 cases per capita between
April 25 and April 26. Additionally, this chart shows the number of COVID cases
in Michigan per 100,000 people was 378.3. Detroit, Macomb, Oakland and Wayne
counties all had higher per capita rates than the State.
Chart 6 shows that the daily increases in
the number of new COVID cases.
Wayne County had the highest increase in
the number of new daily COVID cases at 135 on April 26. In fact, Wayne and St.
Clair counties were the only two to post COVID increases between April 25 and
April 26. St. Clair County had 5 total new COVID cases, which was 2 more than
the day before. Detroit had 65 new cases on April 26, a decrease from the 75
posted the day before. Oakland County reported 47 new COVID cases on April 26
while Macomb County reported 64.
Chart 7 further shows how Wayne County
was the only one in the region to exhibit a visible increase in the number of
daily confirmed COVID cases. Wayne County reported 13 new COVID cases per
100,000 people while Detroit reported 10, Oakland County reported 4 and Macomb
County reported 7.
It was reported by the State of
Michigan that on April 26 the total of COVID-19 deaths reached 3,315
(Chart 8). The 3,315 total deaths reported for April 26
was 41 deaths higher than what was reported on April 25
(Chart 10). The 41 new deaths reported on April 26 was the lowest number of new
deaths reported in the State since March 29.
Chart 9 is another new chart
showing the 5-day rolling average for total COVID deaths in Michigan. On April
24 there were 3,093 deaths.
Of the total number of raw deaths
reported,
Detroit and Wayne County each had 10 new deaths, Oakland County had 8 and
Macomb County had 3 on April 26. The number of new deaths reported on April 26
is significantly lower than the numbers reported on April 25-Detroit alone had
73 new deaths on April 25 and Wayne County had 35 new deaths (Chart 14). The
addition of these new daily deaths brings the totals to the following: 922
COVID deaths in Detroit, 520 in Macomb County, 620 in Oakland County, and 658
in Wayne County (Chart 11).
When looking at the 5-day rolling
averages for the number of new daily COVID deaths and overall death totals we
again see smoother lines, specifically in Chart 15. Using the 5-day rolling
average for the number of new daily COVID deaths we see the growth of COVID
deaths over time, but it appears each governmental unit is now showing declines
in their rolling averages. The number of new daily COVID deaths peaked on April
9 in Oakland County at 26, for Wayne County the peak occurred on April 11 at 34
new deaths and for Macomb County the peak was on April 15 with 31 new deaths.
Detroit appeared to peak at 54 cases and dropped to 39. Wayne and Oakland
counties reported 22 and 23 new deaths, respectively. Even with a rolling average, the tendency for
deaths to drop on weekends because of slower reporting could be a reason for
these results.
The cumulative number of COVID fatalities per 100,000 people was 137 for Detroit, 98 for Wayne County, 92 for Oakland County and 77 for Macomb County (Chart 13).
Chart 16 shows that the fatality rate for Michigan slightly decreased to 8.7 percent; it was at 8.8 percent the day prior. The fatality rates for Macomb County, Detroit and Wayne County all remained above the State’s rate (the dotted red line) on April 26. Detroit’s fatality rate became the highest in region at 10.7 percent while Macomb County’s decreased to 10 percent. Oakland and Wayne counties had fatality rates at 9 and 9.2 percent, respectively.
The data has shown possible slowing of the spread of the virus in Michigan has slowed down. However, a Free Press article from April 26 said testing has slowed down in Michigan due to a shortage of supplies, such as swabs and reagents. With a decrease in the number of tests available this will certainly impact the number of cases the state reports.
The total number of COVID cases
in Michigan increased
to 32,000
(Chart
1), which was equivalent to 320 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 2) on April 20.
The number of new cases reported on April 20 for the State of Michigan—576–is
the
lowest that has been reported since March 26, according to the Michigan
Department of Health and Human Services.
Of the
total COVID
cases, the City of Detroit had 7,736 cases, Oakland County had 6,178
cases,
Wayne County (excluding Detroit) had 6,176 cases and Macomb County had 4,425
cases (Chart
3). In
the early weeks of April Wayne County (excluding Detroit) regularly had a fewer
total number of COVID cases than Oakland County. However, the April 20 data
shows that now Wayne County only has two less cases than Oakland County. This
highlights a decreasing rate of spread in Oakland County and an increasing rate
of spread in Wayne County (excluding Detroit). The number
of confirmed cases in Washtenaw, Livingston, Monroe and St. Clair counties
combined totaled 1,654,
with
Washtenaw County accounting for 878 of those cases, according to the most recent data from the
State.
The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data was supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State.
The City of Detroit had a total COVID case per capita
rate of 1,150 per 100,000 people on April 20, an increase from a rate of 1,130
the day before (Chart 4). Oakland and Wayne counties (excluding Detroit) both
had rates of 918 per 100,00 people. The rate for Wayne County increased more
(increased by 13 points) than the Oakland County rate (increased by 10 points),
further showing that the spread in Wayne County is increasing faster than in
Oakland County. Macomb County
had 658
COVID cases
per 100,000 people.
Chart 5 shows that the City of Detroit was the
only government entity focused on in this blog to post triple digit new
positive COVID case numbers for April 20. According to the data, Detroit had
132 new COVID cases on April 20; Wayne County (excluding Detroit) had 88 new
cases. In Oakland County the number of new cases on April 20 was 69, and in
Macomb County it was 65. Monroe County posted the lowest number of new cases on
April 20 at 3.
According to the data, Detroit had a rate of 20 new COVID cases per 100,000 people on April 20, reflective of a continued rate increase since April 17 (Chart 6). Livingston, St. Clair and Washtenaw counties were the only other government entities to post new daily COVID case rate increases from the day prior. In Macomb County, the daily COVID case rate was 7 per 100,000 people on April 20, a decrease from 12 new COVID cases per 100,000 people on April 19. Oakland County had a rate of 5 new COVID cases per 100,000 people on April 20, a decrease from a rate of 7 reported the day before (Chart 6). Also, on April 20 Wayne County reported a new COVID case rate of 8 per 100,000 people, a decrease from the rate of 11 reported on April 19.
In addition to the raw data of confirmed cases, we also show the percent change in the number of cases reported day-to-day. On April 20 the percent change from April 19 was 1.8 percent, a small decrease from the day’s prior change of 2 percent.
It was reported by the State of
Michigan that on April 20 the total of COVID-19 deaths reached 2,468.
This
was a 3.2
percent change from April 19, which was a 0.4 percent
decrease in the percent change in new daily deaths from the day prior (Chart
9). The 2,468 total deaths reported for April 20
was 77 deaths higher than what was reported on April 19
(Chart
10);
this was 11 less deaths than the number of daily deaths reported on April 19.
Also, the April 20 number was the lowest of new daily COVID deaths reported
since April 5; 77 new deaths were reported that day too.
Of the total deaths reported, the
number of COVID deaths in Detroit increased by 23 between April 20 and April
19. On April 20 the total COVID deaths
across time for Detroit was 641 (Chart 11). Also on April
20, the
Michigan Department of Health and Human Services also reported 507 total deaths
in
Wayne County (excluding Detroit), 479 in Oakland County and 403 in Macomb
County (Chart 11).
On a per capita basis, per 100,000
people, Detroit also continues to have the highest number of deaths per 100,000
people at 95 on
April 20; this is 20 points higher than Wayne County’s rate of 75 COVID deaths
per 100,000 people (Chart 12). Oakland County had 71 COVID deaths per
100,000 people and Macomb County had 60.
As noted, Detroit had 23 new COVID deaths on April 20-this was the highest number of new daily deaths in the region, but was a decrease in the new number of daily deaths reported on April 19. Macomb County reported the second highest number of new deaths at 12 on April 20; Macomb County was the only government entity to post an increase in the number of new COVID deaths from April 19. For Oakland County, the number of new daily deaths was 8, a continued decrease since April 16, and in Wayne County there were 6 new deaths.
The final two charts below show the case
death rates for the State of Michigan and for Detroit and the seven counties in
Southeastern Michigan. To determine the rates we divided the reported deaths
from each day by the number of total COVID cases each day.
On April 20 the COVID case fatality rate
in Michigan was 7.7 percent; a slight increase from the 7.6 percent death rate
reported the day before.
Of Detroit and the counties in the
region, Macomb County continued have the highest case fatality rate at 9.1
percent on April 20. The fatality rate for Detroit was 8.3 percent on April 20,
and in Wayne County (excluding Detroit) it was 8.2 percent. The fatality rate
in Oakland County was 7.8 percent on April 20.
These fatality rates are very sensitive to the number of tests that are being completed across the region. In states or countries where far more testing is completed, death rates may be substantially lower. The failure of the CDC to complete and broadly distribute an early and accurate test has had huge consequences.
On April 20 Gov. Gretchen Whitmer announced that following the May 1 expiration of the Stay at Home Order life will not go back to normal immediately. Instead, businesses and life as we know it will resume slowly and in phases. Whitmer also said her plans, which are yet to be announced, will be data driven. And, as the data has shown thus far, the spread of the virus has certainly slowed but it is still very prevalent throughout Southeastern Michigan.
