Yesterday, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer announced that it appeared the COVID-19 curve may be flattening, but we are not there yet. On April 13 the total number of COVID cases increased to 25,635 (Chart 1), which was equivalent to 257 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 2). Of those 25,635 total COVID cases, the City of Detroit had 6,781 cases, Oakland County had 5,073 cases, Wayne County (excluding Detroit) 4,867 and Macomb County had 3,418 cases (Chart 3).  The number of confirmed cases in Washtenaw, Livingston, Monroe and St. Clair counties combined totaled 1,357, with Washtenaw County accounting for 735 of those cases,  according to the most recent data from the State.

Also, yesterday the State announced additional tests were becoming available, including to those with mild symptoms who have just been told to stay home. As these tests become available there may very well lead to continued upticks in the number of cases. 

In Chart 4 we see that the City of Detroit has consistently had the highest number of COVID cases per 100,000 people. On April 13 Detroit had 1,008 cases per 100,000. Oakland County had the second highest rate at 754 cases per 100,000 people and Wayne County (excluding Detroit) had 724 cases. Macomb County had 508 COVID cases per 100,000 people.

While the total number of cases per capita continues to rise, in Chart 5 and Chart 6 we see that the new COVID cases each day do not consistently increase. On April 13, Washtenaw and St. Clair counties experienced a decrease in the number of new cases, while the other five counties and Detroit experienced increases (Chart 5). Detroit experienced the highest increase at 279 new cases for April 13 and Wayne County had 205 new cases. (The relatively erratic pattern of these data partially reflect variation in how much testing is done and reported on weekends.) The per capita data, Chart 6, shows a similar pattern, with Detroit having the highest per capita for new cases at 41.5 COVID cases per 100,000. Wayne County had 19 new COVID cases per 100,000 people, Macomb County had 18.8 new cases per 100,000 people, and Oakland County had 12.6 cases per 100,000 people.

In addition to the raw data of confirmed cases, we also show the percent change in the number of cases reported day-to-day. The largest percent change thus far reported was on March 19 at 320 percent-this increase was also likely related to an increase in  the number of available tests. Also the 0 percent change on March 28 reflects that the data reported from the day prior did not change; it is unlikely that no new cases were reported that day. On April 13 the percent change from April 12 was 4 percent, an increase from the day’s prior change of 2.6 percent.

It was reported by the State of Michigan that on April 13 the total of COVID-19 deaths reached 1,602. This was a percent change of 7.7 percent from April 12, which was an increase from the 6.8 percent increase of the day prior (Chart 9).** The 1,602 total deaths reported for April 13 was 115 deaths higher than what was reported on April 12 (Chart 10). The 115 new deaths reported on April 13 was an increase in total daily deaths.

Of the total deaths reported, Detroit continues to make up the majority of those deaths. On April 13 the Michigan Department of Health and Human services reported there were 396 total deaths in the Detroit-the highest total number of deaths in one city or county in the state. Wayne County, excluding Detroit, continued to have a higher number of total deaths than Oakland County. On April 13 there were 365 COVID deaths in Wayne County and 347 deaths in Oakland County (Chart 11)

On a per capita basis, per 100,000 people, Detroit also continues to have the highest number of deaths per capita at 59 (Chart 12).

When looking at the total number of daily deaths, Wayne County had the highest for April 13, despite it experiencing a decrease. On April 13, there were 29 new COVID deaths reported in Wayne County and 28 in Detroit. Macomb County had 23 deaths and Oakland County had 18 deaths on April 13.

The overall numbers of COVID cases and deaths continue to rise, but when looking at the new daily cases and deaths the daily changes don’t show a consistent increase. We must remember testing does contribute to this, and numbers may increase regularly due to the additional tests the State announced will soon be available. However, as Gov. Whitmer said, it does appear the curve is starting to flatten, though this pattern is inconsistent even across the counties of Southeastern Michigan.

On April 12, 2020 the State of Michigan reported 24,638 COVID-19 confirmed cases, which equates to 248 cases per 100,000 in the State of Michigan. Cases continue to rise both in the State as a whole and throughout the counties, but Gov. Gretchen Whitmer anticipates the peak to be reached within the next two weeks. We do see some change in these curves, though this could also occur because of a slowing of testing or test results. Southeastern Michigan, and throughout the State, the City of Detroit continues to have the highest number of COVID cases at 6,502 cases as of April 12, according to the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services. Chart 1 shows the total number of confirmed COVID cases in the State and Chart 2 shows the total number of cases by county and in Detroit. Oakland County had the second highest number of total cases at 4,915; this is 1,587 fewer cases than the City of Detroit. Also according to the State, there were 4,662 cases in Wayne County (excluding Detroit numbers) and 3,254 in Macomb County. The number of confirmed cases in Washtenaw, Livingston, Monroe and St. Clair counties combined totaled 1,285, with Washtenaw County accounting for 716 of those cases,  according to the most recent data from the State.

The three charts below give us a better perspective at what is happening at the county level. Chart 4 shows the total number of COVID cases per capita (100,000 people) by county, the Chart 5 shows the number of new COVID cases per county and Chart 6 shows the new number of COVID cases per capita by county (Detroit numbers are included with Wayne County numbers here). Just as the raw data reflects, the number of COVID cases per capita continues to rise, with Wayne County consistently having the highest number of cases per 100,000 people. On April 12 there were 626 COVID cases per 100,000 people in Wayne County; Oakland County had the second highest number at 382 confirmed cases per 100,000. Livingston County had the lowest number of cases per 100,000 people at 107. Day-to-day changes regarding the new number of cases by county has not followed such a clean increase as was shown in the first chart below. Rather, the new number of cases seem to be a bit more erratic, and this could be a result of testing. For example, Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan has noted within the last week test results slowed down due to a backup. On April 12, Detroit had 116 new confirmed cases , Oakland County had 113, Wayne County (excluding Detroit) had 93 and Macomb County had 90. When looking at this per 100,000, Wayne County (including Detroit) had  51 new cases per 100,000 people, Oakland County had 59 and Macomb County had 47.

Please note in the per capita charts Detroit and Wayne County are combined due to how Wayne County’s population data is expressed. Moving forward we will separate the two for better consistency with the other data we are tracking.

In addition to the raw data of confirmed cases, we also show the percent change in the number of cases reported day-to-day. The largest percent change thus far reported was on March 19 at 320 percent-this increase was also likely related to an increase in  the number of available tests. Also the 0 percent change on March 28 reflects that the data reported from the day prior did not change; it is unlikely that no new cases were reported that day. On April 12 the percent change from April 11 was 2.7 percent, a small decrease the day’s prior change of 5.3 percent. Again, this may be a result of testing backlogs. Next week’s data will show.

It was reported by the State of Michigan that on April 12 the total of COVID-19 deaths reached 1,487 (Chart 8). This was a percent change of 6.8 percent from April 11, which was a decrease from the 8.7 percent increase of the day prior (Chart 9). The 1,487 total deaths reported for April 12 was 95 deaths higher than what was reported on April 11. As shown in Chart 10, the 95 new deaths reported on April 12 was a decrease in total daily deaths; on April 11 there were 111 new deaths, and 205 deaths were reported on April 10 (this was the highest total of new daily deaths yet to be reported). Of the total deaths reported, Detroit continues to make up the majority of those deaths. On April 12 the Michigan Department of Health and Human services reported there were 368 total deaths in the Detroit-the highest total number of deaths in one city or county in the state. Wayne County, excluding Detroit, crept above Oakland County for the second highest number of deaths on April 12 (Chart 11). According to the data, there were 336 COVID deaths in Wayne County and 329 in Oakland County.

On a per capita basis, per 100,000 people, Wayne County has continuously had the highest number of deaths in the region. This data is shown in Chart 12. The Wayne County data does include the number of Detroit deaths too due to how population data is expressed. On April 12 there were 367 COVID deaths per 100,000 people. Oakland County had the second highest number at 171 deaths per 100,000 people.

When looking at the total number of daily deaths, it peaked on April 10 in the City of Detroit at 52, according to the State’s data, while on April 12 it was reported there were 20 new COVID deaths in the City (Chart 13). Wayne County had the highest total of COVID deaths reported on April 12 at 32. These April 12^th data may be affected by reporting practices in that some counties may not be reporting on the weekend.

Although the number of COVID cases and deaths in several counties recently decreased for April 12 (not for Wayne County for deaths though) this does not necessarily mean the spread is slowing. Factors such as backlogs on testing, availability of testing and methods of determining cause of death all play a factor in the numbers reported. Additionally, as we have seen with the data before, a single day decrease does not reflect the much anticipated flattening of the curve. This means we must continue to be vigilant in remaining home and cautious when outside of home. This will, hopefully, help lead to a consistent decline in the number of cases and deaths.

On April 10, 2020 the State of Michigan reported 22,783 COVID-19 confirmed cases, which equates to 228 cases per 100,000 in the State of Michigan. Cases continue to rise both in the State as a whole and throughout the counties. These overall data are reflected in the first two charts. It’s important to note, however, that these data are strongly affected by the lack of testing, which means rates could be much higher.

In Southeastern Michigan, and throughout the State, the City of Detroit continues to have the highest number of cases at 6,061 cases as of April 10, according to the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services, which was higher than any number of cases throughout the counties in Southeastern Michigan. Oakland County had the second highest number of total cases at 40,27; this is 1,814 fewer cases than the City of Detroit. Also according to the State, there were 4,032 cases in Wayne County (excluding Detroit numbers) and 2,683 in Macomb County. In total, the number of confirmed cases in Washtenaw, Livingston, Monroe and St. Clair counties combined totaled 1,223, with Washtenaw County accounting for 637 of those cases,  according to the most recent data from the State. These data are represented in the next three charts.

In fifth chart down we show the total number of new cases reported each day at the county level, and for the City of Detroit COVID cases. Please note that these data from the State were likely reported for April 3 was also likely reported on April 4, which is why no change is shown and a “0” for April 4 is shown on the chart. Despite this, April 5 had the highest number of cases reported for the City of Detroit, Wayne (excluding Detroit), Macomb and Oakland counties; 945 case were reported for the City of Detroit that day. Since then, the City of Detroit has experienced a consistent decline in the number of new cases reported each day, while the other Wayne (excluding Detroit) Oakland, Macomb and Washtenaw have experienced small upticks following declines. Again, part of this could be an artifact of the limited testing.

In addition to the raw data of confirmed cases, we also show in the sixth chart the percent change in the number of cases reported day-to-day. The largest percent change thus far reported was on March 19 at 320 percent-this increase was also likely related to an increase in  the number of available tests. Also the 0 percent change on March 28 reflects that the data reported from the day prior did not change; it is unlikely that no new cases were reported that day. On April 10 the percent change from April 9 was 6 percent, a small increase the day’s prior change of 5.23 percent. April 7 was the peak for the day-to-day percent change during this week and that was reported at 16.23 percent.  

The next 6 charts explain the data about deaths. We consider the data on deaths more reliable, given that they are not directly affected by the shortage of tests.

The first chart shows that on April 10 the total of COVID-19 deaths reached 1,281, the highest number of newly reported COVID-19 deaths in the State of Michigan. Percentage changes are reflected in the second chart. There was  a 19.5 percent change from April 9 to the 10th, while the change from April 8^th to April 9^th was 12.2 percent. The last time the percent change was at 19 percent or higher was on April 2 when it was reported there was a 23 percent change in the number of Covid-19 deaths from the day prior. The third chart below shows the increase in number of deaths by day. The 1,281 total deaths reported for April 10 was 205 deaths higher than what was reported on April 9. On April 9 there were 117 deaths reported by the State for that day, and this number showed a small hope that the deaths were beginning to flatten off. However, Friday’s numbers suggest otherwise.

As shown in the fifth chart below, Detroit reported the highest number of deaths on April 10 at 52, according to the data provided by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services (the City of Detroit is reporting 54 new deaths for April 10). Wayne County (excluding the City of Detroit) had 53 new deaths on April 10. Oakland and Macomb counties also experienced spikes in new death numbers from the day prior. For Oakland County there were 12 reported deaths on April 9 and 36 on April 10; in Macomb County there were 24 reported deaths on April 9 and 32 on April 10. Also, please note the data from the State was likely not reported for April 3 and April 4, which is why the chart shows such a severe decline; we assume this was an error.

Detroit continues to have the total highest number of COVID-19 deaths in the region, and in the State, according to data from the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services. This is shown in the sixth chart below, which also shows that on April 10 both Oakland and Wayne County (excluding Detroit) had the same number of total deaths, 282.

**Note-the 0 percent change on March 28 reflects that the data reported from the day prior did not change; it is unlikely that no new cases were reported that day.**

Yesterday we noted that with cautious optimism there was a glimmer of hope that COVID-19 cases may have been leveling off. The April 10 data showed that in some counties-Wayne, Oakland and Macomb-there was an uptick in the number of cases but in Detroit the total number of new cases per day has been on the decline. However, the total number of deaths reported on April 10 showed a different story. April 10 was the day in which the highest number of single day deaths were reported for the State, Detroit, Wayne, Oakland, Macomb an Monroe counties.

As we continue to monitor the situation in the Metro-Detroit area we are cautiously optimistic that social distancing is helping reduce the number of new COVID-19 cases.  Like many other areas around the state, country, and world , Metro-Detroit experienced an exponential growth rate in new cases.  According to the New York Times, The Metro-Detroit area is second only to New York City in confirmed cases. Following Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s Stay at Home Order being issued on March 23, we may be seeing a slowing trend in the number of new cases.  This is positive, but we should be cautious.  There are still many infected people who are unaware they are infected, and could easily spread the virus if the State and city lift restrictions too early or too aggressively.  On April 9 Whitmer extended the Stay at Home Order for the State with the intent to continue to try to flatten the curve. 

First, we see that the number of new cases across the State is beginning to level off.  We utilize Covidtracking.org as the source of collected data- which is reported by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services (MDHHS) daily.  One note, because on the last two Fridays and Saturdays the numbers were simply repeated we used a linear interpolation (averaging growth between those two days) in the data series to get a clearer sense of what is happening in the state.  We care a lot about the policy responses at the Wayne State Center for Urban Studies and are in the process of analyzing government responses across the 50 states and Washington DC to see how we can help slow, and eventually stop, the spread of the coronavirus.

Despite this potential levelling of new cases in many areas, we need to continue forcefully exercising our social distance to the extent that we can.  This is vitally important, and our actions do not simply impact our probability of contracting the virus it can be the difference between life and death for many populations.  The Jacob France Institute at the University of Baltimore, through the National Neighborhood Indicator’s Partnership, recently estimated that for each additional week we stay home we save 378 lives and if we stayed home for 60 full days we would 2,713. 

We know that the disproportionate number of cases in the State are in the Metro-Detroit area.  It’s worth noting that this metropolitan area experienced many of the first cases and a very rapid rise, and while the region is slowing we are still seeing an uptick in cases in Wayne County (outside of Detroit), Macomb, and Oakland.  We use MDHHS for these data as well. 

Finally, we know density matters regarding the spread.  In the following table we see that there is a tendency for the number of confirmed cases, death rates and deaths per confirmed case to rise with population density. This may be a function of the health care system becoming too overwhelmed as the total number of cases rises.