Tag Archives: COVID-19 Michigan

The Impacts of COVID on Mobility in Southeastern Michigan

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The coronavirus pandemic has impacted the daily lives of everyone-from their work and school schedules to the way we obtain goods and services to how we recreate and interact with others. These changes directly relate to national and local mobility trends, especially since several Executive Orders in Michigan have either mandated or encouraged people to stay home and telecommute whenever possible.

The data we present here show the changes in mobility in Southeastern Michigan. These data were produced by Google, which is creating mobility reports for each State during this pandemic. The data presented below highlights the percent change in visits to places like grocery stores and parks in the seven counties that make up Southeastern Michigan. The list below is the percent change in mobility to these places between the first of April to mid-May for the State of Michigan. The maps below also reflect that timeframe and show the percent change in mobility trends at the county level for Southeastern Michigan compared to what baseline for mobility was to these places before the pandemic hit.

Shifts in Mobility Trends: Michigan

  • Residential: +8%
  • Workplaces: -28%
  • Grocery and pharmacy: -6%
  • Retail and recreation: -34%
  • Parks: +180%
  • Transit stations:-24%

Places of Residence

With the coronavirus pandemic came a statewide lockdown, which mandated people only leave their homes for necessities and not to visit with anyone outside of their homes, unless they were an essential worker. However, even with the mandate there was an increase in mobility between residences, statewide and locally. Statewide, there was an 8 percent increase in mobility to residential homes, and in Southeastern Michigan there was between a 7-12 percent increase, depending on the county. Washtenaw County had the highest percent increase in mobility between residences at 12 percent; St. Clair County had the lowest percent change at 7 percent. In Wayne County there was a 9 percent increase in mobility between residences, and in Macomb and Oakland counties there was a 10 percent increase.

Workplaces

As noted, the Governor’s emergency orders throughout the pandemic have required certain places of business to close and for others to allow for telecommuting whenever possible. With such policy shifts came a decline in mobility to workplaces all throughout Michigan. At the State level there was a 28 percent decline from the normal amount of mobility to workplaces, and throughout Southeastern Michigan there was between a 24-40 percent decline in mobility to workplaces between the beginning of April and mid-May. Washtenaw County had the largest decline at 40 percent. In Wayne County there was a 32 percent decline in mobility to workplaces prior the coronavirus pandemic, in Oakland County there was a 36 percent decline, and in Macomb County there was a 35 percent decline. Monroe County had the smallest percent decline from the baseline at 24 percent.

Grocery Stores and Pharmacies

Between April and mid-May there was a decrease in mobility to grocery stores and pharmacies throughout Michigan, including in Southeastern Michigan. Washtenaw County experienced the largest decline at 25 percent while Monroe County’s shift was only 4 percent lower than the amount residents normally commute to these places. Although we witnessed bare shelves at the beginning of the pandemic, with certain product shortages continuing through today, the decline in mobility to these stores is not surprising as both consumers and businesses shifted to online and third party delivery services.

Retail and Recreation Locations

With the restrictions on business operations, including if they could even remain open to the public, it is also not surprising that at the State and local levels mobility trends have experienced a decline to retail and recreation locations. Washtenaw County again experienced the largest decline in mobility from the frequency residents were traveling before the pandemic to retail and recreation locations. According to the data, there was a 50 percent decline in commuting to retail and recreation locations for Washtenaw County. In Wayne County that decline was 33 percent, in Macomb County it was 37 percent, and in Oakland County it was 48 percent. At the State level there was a 34 percent decline from the baseline in the amount people traveled to retail and recreation locations.

Parks

Similar to the trend being experienced at the State level, all counties in Southeastern Michigan have experienced an increase in mobility to parks. Wayne County experienced the smallest percent change at 32 percent while Macomb County experienced the largest percent change at 347 percent. There were three counties-Macomb, St. Clair and Washtenaw – where mobility to parks increased at a higher rate than the mobility rate increase at the State level (180 percent).

Transit Stations

The data also shows that there was a decrease in mobility to transit stations throughout most of Southeastern Michigan, but not the entire region. In Monroe and St. Clair counties there was an 18 and 6 percent increase in mobility, respectively. In Wayne County, which provides public transportation via both the Detroit Department of Transportation and the Southeastern Michigan Authority of Regional Transit (SMART) mobility to these stations decreased by 34 percent. There are also communities in Oakland County and all of Macomb County that offers public transportation via SMART; mobility to these stations declined by 15 percent and 3 percent, respectively. In Washtenaw County, where there is also a local transportation system, mobility to these stations declined by 28 percent. There was a 24 percent decline in mobility to transportation stations at the State level.

Overall, this data provides a glimpse into how the coronavirus pandemic has shifted certain aspects of our everyday ways of life. These current shifts could lead to long-term policy changes as we as a state and a nation are seeing that telecommuting, road diets and contactless shopping, among other changes, are possible. Pros and cons can be argued for the long-term impacts of such changes, however, decreases in commuting does mean a decline in certain pollutants being emitted, which is environmentally beneficial and a shift we need to implement for the long-term viability of this planet.

Michigan Not Immune to Large Scale Increases in COVID Daily COVID Numbers

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Michigan, like many states throughout the U.S., continues to see new confirmed daily COVID case numbers that are higher than what was reported less than a month ago. On July 16, the State of Michigan reported 71,842 total COVID cases, an increase of 645 cases from the day prior. In terms of the number of new daily cases, the 645 reported on July 16 was a decrease from the 891 new cases reported on July 15. Also, of the 645 new COVID cases, 324 were documented in Southeastern Michigan. In total, 50 percent of the new COVID cases were in Southeastern Michigan. Up until the last few days, in recent weeks majority of the new case numbers in Michigan were occurring outside of Metro-Detroit region. In Chart 1 we show that the State total for the number of COVID cases on July 14 was 70,481–a five-day rolling average. The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing and/or the quality of reporting or failure to report. A closer look at Chart 1 shows how the once flattened curve has been increasing at a higher rate since late June, with case numbers now about 70,000.

Chart 2 shows that, based on the five-day rolling averages, the growth of new COVID cases in Southeastern Michigan continues to increase, with noticeable upticks particularly in Wayne and Oakland counties. On July 14 Wayne County reported 11,323 confirmed COVID cases and Oakland County reported 10,063. Between June 24 (when new case numbers began to rise again) and July 14 Wayne County reported 1,260 new cases and Oakland County reported 1,043 new cases. On July 14, Detroit, which still has the highest total number of confirmed COVID cases, reported 11,461 cases. However, since June 24 Detroit has reported about half of the new number of COVID cases that Wayne County has. Between June 24 and July 14 Detroit reported 584 new cases. On July 14 Macomb County reported 7,784, an increase of 753 new cases since June 24.

As noted, new daily COVID case numbers have been increasing at a faster rate in July than in June. The two five-day rolling average charts below (Chart 3 and Chart 3.1) show that up through early June daily COVID case numbers were declining, but since about June 24 those numbers have been on the rise. A little over a week ago is when daily case numbers really began to spike. However, on July 14 there was a decline from the number of new daily cases reported by the State from the days prior; this is on trend with the fact that the State of Michigan had a lower number of new COVID cases than the previous day. Oakland County had the highest number of new daily cases on July 14 at 50, with Wayne County following at 37. Detroit reported 22 new cases and Macomb County reported 25 new cases.

While the number of new daily COVID cases has been experiencing an overall increase over the last few weeks, the cumulative number of COVID deaths has remained low and fairly stagnant. The State reported on July 16 there was a cumulative total of 6,101 COVID deaths, an increase of 16 deaths from the day prior. Of those 16 deaths, 13 were added to the daily count as a result of death certificates being compared with the State’s COVID database. Additionally, of those 16 total deaths, 12 were reported out of Southeastern Michigan.

In Chart 4, the five-day rolling average for the number of deaths in Michigan, shows the number of deaths in the State of Michigan continued to slowly inch toward 6,081.

Chart 5 (a 5-day rolling average) further hones in on how majority of the COVID deaths in Michigan have occurred, and continue to occur, in Southeastern Michigan. On July 14, the City of Detroit reported 1,459 deaths. Wayne County had the second highest total at 1,185 deaths on July 14.

Chart 6, the five day rolling average of deaths, shows the number of new statewide deaths was reported at 5 on July 14. Furthermore, Chart 7 and Chart 7.1 shows how the number of deaths in Southeastern Michigan continues to remain low, with a noticeable decrease beginning to occur on June 15. Chart 10.1 shows a more in-depth look at the number of new daily COVID deaths in the last month so viewers can better discern where in the Southeastern Michigan the numbers are increasing, decreasing or remaining the same. Detroit, Macomb, Oakland and Wayne counties each reported 1 new death on July 14; these were the only new deaths reported in the region. As Chart 10.1 highlights, no more than 7 new daily deaths have been reported since June 1 and those numbers have not reached above 3 since July 7. Due to Detroit and Wayne County reporting the same numbers on some dates it may appear that the Detroit line does not go all the through, however this is just due to the fact that the Wayne County data points are the same.

Michigan has not been immune to the national trend of confirmed daily COVID case increases. With new daily numbers hovering above 400, and beyond, for the last week we have seen Gov. Gretchen Whitmer roll back on her re-opening plan and institute a public face mask mandate to help ensure residents’ safety and a decline in the spread of the virus. However, neither can be ensured if the public doesn’t adhere to the laws and standards set forth by local, state and federal government agencies.

Michigan COVID Numbers Experience Overall Decline, Spikes in Cases Continue Though

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The number of COVID cases in Michigan has flattened over the last several months, but as daily data show new cases continue to be reported. On June 22, the State of Michigan reported a total of 61,609 cases, an increase of 179 cases from the day prior. The daily total was equivalent to 615 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 4). Of those 179 cases, 61 were documented in Southeastern Michigan. In total, 34 percent of the new COVID cases were in Southeastern Michigan, meaning case numbers are increasing at a higher rate outside of the region than locally. In Chart 1 we show that the State total for the number of COVID cases on  June 20 was 61,034–a five-day rolling average. The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing and/or the quality of reporting or failure to report. This continues to be important as the State of Michigan regularly updates its past COVID data and not all State changes can continuously be updated here.

Chart 2 shows that, based on the five-day rolling averages, the growth of new COVID cases in Southeastern Michigan has been increasing at a much slower pace compared to previous months. However, Detroit and Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties continue to add cases. On June 20 the number of cases in Detroit reached 11,376, the highest in the region, and Wayne County reported the second highest number of cases at 9,946. On June 20, the five-day rolling average for the number of COVID cases in Oakland County was 8,864, and Macomb County reported 6,974.

The City of Detroit had 1,694 COVID cases per 100,000 people as of June 20, an increase from 1,692 on June 19 (Chart 3). This is based upon a reported increase of 13 new COVID cases since June 19, bringing the total number of COVID cases in Detroit to 11,394. Wayne County reported 926 cases per 100,000 people, and Oakland County had 690  cases per 100,000 people. These per capita rates were based upon 9,970 total cases for Wayne and for 8,674 Oakland. Macomb County reported 799 cases per 100,000 people, which is based upon 6,983 cases.

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data were supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State. Additionally, the case totals do not reflect the number of people who have recovered, just those who have been infected. In early June the State changed how it reports its data on the website, making data more accurate in the long-term but more complicated to track as well. The State regularly updates older data and as we continue to publish regular updates on COVID the State’s changes to past data many not always be reflected in our posts. The data published in new posts is accurate for the day we received it on though.

Chart 4 shows that Wayne County reported the highest number of daily cases, according to the five-day rolling average, at 13 on June 20. Detroit reported 8 new daily cases while Oakland County reported 6 and Macomb County reported 3. As Map 1 shows, Detroit and Wayne and Macomb counties all reported a lower number of new daily cases on June 20 than what the average was for last week (June 11-18). For example, last week Detroit averaged 12 new COVID cases and on June 20 it reported 8. Oakland County though had an average of 0.6 new cases last week and reported 6 new cases on June 20 through 5-day rolling average calculations. So, while there are signs the number of new cases are declining regionally, the data also shows that nowhere is immune from having its numbers increase again.

On June 22, the per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people was 2 for the State, which was equivalent to 179 new cases. On June 22, Detroit and Monroe and Washtenaw counties all reported the same per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people as the State-2. Detroit’s per capita rate of 2 was equivalent to 13 new cases per 100,000 people, based on an actual number of cases. St. Clair County reported a per capita rate of 3 and the remaining counties all reported per capita rates of 1. Wayne County’s per capita rate of 1 was equivalent to 22 new cases, the highest in the region that day. The second map below (Map 2) shows that while Detroit’s per capita rate on June 22 is on par with its average rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people for the week of June 11-18, St. Clair County is experiencing higher numbers this week than last. St. Clair County had a per capita rate of 3 on June 22 and an average per capita rate of 0.8 last week.

Chart 4 shows that Wayne County reported the highest number of daily cases, according to the five-day rolling average, at 13 on June 20. Detroit reported 8 new daily cases while Oakland County reported 6 and Macomb County reported 3. As Map 1 shows, Detroit and Wayne and Macomb counties all reported a lower number of new daily cases on June 20 than what the average was for last week (June 11-18). For example, last week Detroit averaged 12 new COVID cases and on June 20 it reported 8. Oakland County though had an average of 0.6 new cases last week and reported 6 new cases on June 20 through 5-day rolling average calculations. So, while there are signs the number of new cases are declining regionally, the data also shows that nowhere is immune from having its numbers increase again.

On June 22, the per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people was 2 for the State, which was equivalent to 179 new cases. On June 22, Detroit and Monroe and Washtenaw counties all reported the same per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people as the State-2. Detroit’s per capita rate of 2 was equivalent to 13 new cases per 100,000 people, based on an actual number of cases. St. Clair County reported a per capita rate of 3 and the remaining counties all reported per capita rates of 1. Wayne County’s per capita rate of 1 was equivalent to 22 new cases, the highest in the region that day. The second map below (Map 2) shows that while Detroit’s per capita rate on June 22 is on par with its average rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people for the week of June 11-18, St. Clair County is experiencing higher numbers this week than last. St. Clair County had a per capita rate of 3 on June 22 and an average per capita rate of 0.8 last week.

In Chart 6, the five-day rolling average for the number of deaths in Michigan shows how they have leveled off during the month of June. On June 20 there were 5,837 deaths (an increase of 12 deaths from the day prior). The actual cumulative COVID-19 deaths on June 22 was 5,853, an increase of 7 deaths from the prior day. Of those deaths that occurred, 4 were in Southeastern Michigan.

Chart 7 (a 5-day rolling average) further reflects how the number of deaths has leveled off in the State and Southeastern Michigan. On June 20 the City of Detroit reported 1,428 deaths, and while it is still the highest number in the region, that number has only increased by 25 total deaths since June 8. Wayne County had the second highest total at 1,141 deaths on June 20; Wayne County had 1,120 deaths on June 8.

The per capita rates for the number of total COVID deaths in Southeastern Michigan remained the same for each entity on June 22; these rates have all remained the same since June 14. Detroit reported 212 total COVID deaths per 100,000 people (1,428 deaths), Wayne County reported a per capita rate of 106 (1,143 deaths), Macomb County reported a per capita rate of 99 (862 deaths) and Oakland County reported a per capita rate of 82 (1,037 deaths).

Chart 9, the five day rolling average of deaths, shows the number of new statewide deaths was reported at 12 on June 20,  an increase from the 11 new deaths reported the day before. While the number new statewide deaths did slightly increase on June 20, the overall number has not gone above 18 since June 10. In mid-April the number of new deaths in Michigan reached a peak at 145. Furthermore, Chart 10 shows how the number of deaths in Southeastern Michigan continues to decline, a trend we are eager to see continue. Oakland and Wayne counties each reported 1 new death, the highest in the region. These numbers are based on 5-day rolling averages. As the map below shows, Detroit and each county in the region experienced a decrease in the number of deaths from June 20 and the average number of deaths last week. Wayne County had the highest average number of deaths from the week of June 11 to 18 at 1.1, and on June 20 it was reported at 1. Detroit averaged 0.4 deaths last week and reported 0 new deaths on June 20.

While we know that the number of COVID cases and deaths has decreased throughout the month of June we also continue to see spikes in new cases periodically in different areas throughout the State. For example, note how majority of the number of new cases reported in Michigan on June 22 were from outside the State’s most populate region. Additionally, Southeastern Michigan has been the last area in the State to loosen restrictions. Overall, Michigan has experienced a recent uptick in the number of new cases. According to Mlive, the seven average for new COVID cases this week is 192 and last week it was 152. So, while the data shows that the curve has certainly flattened it also reflects how abiding by health recommendations set forth by the Centers for Disease Control plays a large role in flattening that curve.

Michigan’s Stay-at-Home Order Lifted as Numbers Flatten

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On June 1, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer lifted the Stay-at-Home Order and several restrictions for retail, restaurants and bars and other businesses because the State has seen a serious improvement in the number of new daily cases and deaths, meaning the curve has flattened.

According to the State of Michigan, the total number of COVID cases in Michigan rose to 57,532 on June 1, an increase of 135 cases from the previous day. The daily total was equivalent to 576 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 4). Of those 135 cases, 57 were documented in Southeastern Michigan, which was equal to 42 percent of the new cases. In Chart 1 we show that the State total for the number of COVID cases on May 30 was 56,890–a five-day rolling average. The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing and/or the quality of reporting or failure to report.

Chart 2 shows that, based on the five-day rolling averages, the growth of new COVID cases in Southeastern Michigan continued to level off for the counties in the region, likely one of the many factors as to why Whitmer decided to moved forward in lifting the Stay-at-Home Order. On May 30, the number of cases in Detroit reached 10,974, the highest in the region, and Wayne County reported the second highest number of cases at 9,307. On May 30, the five-day rolling average for the number of COVID cases in Oakland County was 8,343, and Macomb County reported 6,646.

The City of Detroit had 1,644 COVID cases per 100,000 people as of June 1, an increase from 1,641 the day before (Chart 3). This is based upon a reported increase of 17 new COVID cases, bringing the total number of COVID cases in Detroit to 11,058. Wayne County reported 872 cases per 100,000 people, and Oakland County had 669 cases per 100,000 people. These per capita rates were based upon 9,388 total cases for Wayne and for 8,407 Oakland. Macomb County reported 767 cases per 100,000 people, which is based upon 6,707 cases.

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data were supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State. Additionally, the case totals do not reflect the number of people who have recovered, just those who have been infected.

Chart 4 shows that Wayne County, among the units covered here, reported the highest number of daily cases at 52 on May 30 and Detroit reported 37 new cases. The numbers reported in this chart reflect a five-day rolling average.

On June 1, the per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people was 1 for the State, which was equivalent to 135 new cases. The State’s June 1 per capita rate was a decrease from the day prior, which is when the number of new cases nearly doubled. Just as the State’s per capita rate dropped so did the City of Detroit’s. On May 31, Detroit reported 14 new COVID cases per 100,000 people, and on May 1 it reported a rate of 3. Detroit’s increased rate was equivalent to 17 new cases (Chart 5). Wayne County reported 1 new COVID case per 100,000 people, which was equivalent to 14 new cases. Oakland and Macomb counties also each reported per capita rates of 1 new case per 100,000 people on June 1, which were equivalent to 11 and 12 new cases, respectively. Overall, 57 new COVID cases were reported in Southeastern Michigan on June 1. This is a decline of 263 from the day prior.

In Chart 6, the five-day rolling average for the number of deaths in Michigan shows a continuing slow increase (a lagged number of 5,450 deaths, an increase of 36 deaths). The actual reported COVID-19 deaths on June 1 was 5,516, an increase of 25 deaths from the day prior. Of those 25 deaths Southeastern Michigan accounted for 12 of them.

Chart 7 (a 5-day rolling average) portrays how Detroit continues to report the highest cumulative number of deaths at 1,365 on May 30. Wayne County had the second highest total at 1,077 on May 30.

Chart 8 portrays the total number of COVID deaths per 100,000 people on June 1. The cumulative total of COVID deaths per 100,000 people remained the same for Detroit and all the counties in the region due to the small increases in the number of deaths, which totaled 12 for all of Southeastern Michigan. In Detroit the per capita rate remained at 204 (representing 1,375 deaths). In Wayne County there were 101 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (1,088 total deaths). In Oakland County there were 79 deaths per 100,000 people (988 total deaths), and in Macomb County there were 93 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (814 total). Macomb County had the highest single day death count in Southeastern Michigan on June 1; 4 COVID deaths were reported. The State of Michigan had 55 COVID deaths per 100,000 people, which was equal to 5,516 total deaths. The State’s per capita rate did increase by 1.

Chart 9, the five day rolling average of deaths,  shows the number of new statewide deaths declined to 36 on May 30. Furthermore, Chart 10 shows how the number of deaths in Southeastern Michigan declined. Detroit reported 6 daily COVID deaths, as did Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties on May 30. The 6 daily deaths in each of those three counties and Detroit were the highest reported in the region. These numbers are based on five-day rolling averages.


The fatality rate trends continued in Southeastern Michigan on June 1 with the State reporting a fatality rate of 9.6 percent for two weeks straight, Detroit continuing to report a fatality rate of 12.4 percent and Macomb County reporting a fatality rate of 12.1 percent for another day.

One reason we may be seeing such high fatality rates in Michigan is due to the low testing rates. When only having-presumably-a lower of number confirmed COVID cases than is actually likely due to the limited availability of tests, the fatality rate appears higher because the base comparison is smaller than it might be.

Although the Stay-at-Home Order has been lifted and business restrictions have been loosened to the point where many can open with capacity limitations, there are still concerns of a second wave. This is why policies to wear masks inside and work from home when possible are still encouraged. We must find a balance to ensure the health and safety of our communities remain a priority while opening the economy.

Despite Decrease in COVID Case, Death Numbers Michigan Remains Among the Hardest Hit

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According to the State of Michigan, the total number of COVID cases in Michigan rose to 47,552on May 11, an increase of 414 cases from the previous day. This total was equivalent to 476 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 4). The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing and/or the quality of reporting or failure to report. That upward trend of the curve has been flattening in recent weeks as the number of new COVID cases, both throughout the State and regionally, gradually declines. In Southeastern Michigan, Detroit reported the highest number of daily cases at 63 on May 9; this was a decline from the day before (Chart 3). Note that this five day rolling average causes these daily case and daily death charts to lag two days behind.

Chart 2 shows that over the last several days, based on the five-day rolling averages, the number of new COVID cases in Southeastern Michigan has remained fairly consistent, allowing the curve to flatten. The number of cumulative COVID cases remains the highest in Detroit at 9,712 on May 9, with Wayne County following at a reported 8,232 cases. On May 9, the five-day rolling average for the number of COVID cases in Oakland County was 7,694, and Macomb County reported 5,993.

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data were supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State.

The City of Detroit had 1,464 COVID cases per 100,000 people on May 11, an increase from 1,455 the day before (Chart 4). This is based upon a reported increase of 65 new cases, bringing the total number of COVID cases in Detroit to 9,851. Wayne County reported 1,240 cases per 100,000 people, and Oakland County had 1,152 cases per 100,000 people. These per capita rates were based upon 8,343 total cases for Wayne and 7,752 for Oakland. Macomb County reported 901 cases per 100,000 people, which is based upon 6,064 cases.

Chart 5 shows that the per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people remained fairly stable for Detroit since May 8. On May 11 Detroit reported 10 new COVID cases per 100,000 people, which was equivalent to 65 new cases. Detroit experienced a small decline in its per capita rate while Monroe, Washtenaw and Wayne counties all experienced small increases. On May 11 Monroe County reported 3 daily COVID cases per 100,000 people, as did Washtenaw County; Wayne County reported 5 daily COVID cases per 100,000 people. These per capita rates were equivalent to 4, 10 and 54 new cases, respectively. Oakland County reported a per capita rate of 1 new case per 100,000 people on May 11, which was equivalent to 16 new cases, and Macomb County reported a rate of 3, which was equivalent to 22 new cases.

The State’s per capita rate was 3.8 new cases per 100,000 people, equivalent to 382 new cases. In total, of the 414 new cases, Southeastern Michigan accounted for 195 of them.

In Chart 6, the five-day rolling average for the number of deaths shows a continuing slow increase (a lagged number of 4,480 deaths, an increase of 67deaths). The actual reported COVID-19 deaths reached 4,584 on May 11, an increase of 33 deaths from the day prior. Of those 33 daily deaths reported on May 11, 16 were in Southeastern Michigan. While there was a small increase in the number of daily deaths between May 10 and 11, the numbers reported both days are still significantly lower than what has been reported for more than a month.

Chart 7 portrays how the total number of COVID deaths in Southeastern Michigan continues to increase, but that rate of increase has been gradually declining overall, showing that the curve is slowly starting to flatten. Chart 9 highlights how the curve is flattening throughout Southeastern Michigan, with the number of daily deaths throughout the region not reaching more than 15 in any one government entity on May 9. Oakland County reported the highest number of additional deaths on May 9 at 15, this was based on a 5-day rolling average calculation. Detroit and Wayne County each reported 13 additional daily deaths. Such declines in the number of daily deaths in Southeastern Michigan is why, in large part, the State continues to experience a decline in its daily death numbers (Chart 8), which reflects a slower increase in the overall number of COVID deaths.

Chart 10 portrays the total number of COVID deaths per 100,000 people. As of May 11, the cumulative total of COVID deaths per 100,000 people in Detroit was 177 (representing 1,192 deaths). In Wayne County there were 136 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (913 total deaths), in Oakland County there were 126 deaths per 100,000 people (849 total deaths), and in Macomb County there were 104 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (699 total).

The State of Michigan had 46 COVID deaths per 100,000 people, a rate that continues to remain lower than the four entities discussed above.

The fatality rate for Detroit and the State both declined by 0.1 percent on May 11. Detroit reported a fatality rate of 12.1 percent, and the State reported a fatality rate of 9.6 percent. Detroit and the three largest counties in the region continue to have fatality rates at or above 11 percent.

One reason we may be seeing such high fatality rates in Michigan is due to the low testing rates. When only having-presumably-a lower of number confirmed COVID cases than is actually likely due to the limited availability of tests, the fatality rate appears higher because the base comparison is smaller than it might be.

Michigan reported 33 additional deaths on May 11, and while this was an increase from the day before, it was still among the lowest number of daily deaths reported since late March. The data shows that daily death and case numbers continue to trend downward. However, Michigan remains one of the hardest hit states. It ranks seventh in the nation in confirmed cases and fourth in deaths.

Weekend Numbers Show Lowest Number of Deaths Since March

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According to the State of Michigan, the total number of COVID cases in Michigan rose to 47,138, an increase of 382 cases from the previous day. This total was equivalent to 472 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 4) on May 10. The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing and/or the quality of reporting or failure to report. That curve continues to trend upward, but the number of new COVID cases identified each day in Southeastern Michigan has been steadily decreasing for about a month. Detroit reported the highest number of daily cases at 72 on May 8 (Chart 3). Note that this five day rolling average causes these daily case and daily death charts to lag two days behind.

Chart 2 shows how that while the curve is flattening in Southeastern Michigan, based on the five-day rolling averages, there are still small increases in the total number of COVID cases in Southeastern Michigan. The number of cumulative COVID cases remains the highest in Detroit at 9,649 on May 8, with Wayne County following at a reported 8,170 cases. On May 8, the five-day rolling average for the number of COVID cases in Oakland County was 7,658, and Macomb County reported 5,946.

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data were supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State.

The City of Detroit had 1,455 COVID cases per 100,000 people on May 10, an increase from 1,443 the day before (Chart 4). This is based upon a reported increase of 77 new cases, bringing the total number of COVID cases in Detroit to 9,786. Wayne County reported 1,232 cases per 100,000 people, and Oakland County had 1,150 cases per 100,000 people. These per capita rates were based upon 8,289 total cases for Wayne and 7,736 for Oakland. Macomb County reported 898 cases per 100,000 people, which is based upon 6,042 cases.

Chart 5 shows that the per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people remained fairly stable for Detroit over the last few days. Detroit’s rate was reported at 11 new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people on May 10 (equal to 77 new cases), an increase from 9 the day before. Oakland and St. Clair counties were the only other two government entities that reported a rate increase between May 9 and May 10; both entities reported per capita rates of 3 new cases per 100,000 people.  Oakland County reported 44 new COVID cases on May 10 while St. Clair County reported 4 new cases. Wayne County reported a per capita rate of 4 new cases per 100,000 people on May 10, which was equivalent to 38 new cases, and Macomb County reported a rate of 3, which was equivalent to 23 new cases. Over the weekend (May 9 and 10) the 77 new cases Detroit reported on May 10 was the highest number across these local governments.

The State’s per capita rate was 3.8 new cases per 100,000 people, equivalent to 382 new cases. In total, of the 680 new cases, Southeastern Michigan accounted for 195 of them.

In Chart 6 the five-day rolling average for the number of deaths shows a continuing steady increase (a lagged number of 4,413 deaths, an increase of 74 deaths). The actual reported COVID-19 deaths reached 4,551 on May 10, an increase of 25 deaths from the day prior. Of those 25 daily deaths reported on May 10, 18 were in Southeastern Michigan. Overall, the 25 daily deaths reported on May 10 is the lowest number that has been reported in the State since March. On May 9 the State reported 133 additional deaths, however 67 of those were added to the May 9 total as a result of comparing death certificates and the State’s COVID database. The number of additional COVID deaths reported on Sunday was a substantial decrease in reported daily deaths. We hope that this is a trend that will continue, however recently COVID data reported to the State over the weekend is lower than what is reported during the week. 

Chart 7 portrays how the total number of COVID deaths in Southeastern Michigan continues to increase, but that rate has been gradually declining overall, showing that the curve is slowly starting to flatten. The rate at which the number of deaths is increasing in Detroit and Wayne and Oakland counties has been hovering in the mid-teens for the last several days. Detroit continues to have the highest cumulative number of COVID deaths though, inching toward 1,200.

Chart 8 shows that the number of daily deaths in Michigan continues to decline overall, despite a small uptick late last week. On May 8 though the numbers decreased again. Chart 9 shows that Detroit and Oakland and  Macomb counties contributed to the decrease in the total number of daily deaths in Michigan. Detroit reported 16 daily deaths, while Oakland County reported 14 additional deaths and Macomb reported 10. None of those entities reported a decline of more than 2 deaths from the day prior. Aside from those three entities, the other five counties in Southeastern Michigan reported the same number of additional deaths as the day prior, further showing that the curve is in fact flattening.

Chart 10 portrays the total number of COVID deaths per 100,000 people. As of May 10, the cumulative total of COVID deaths per 100,000 people in Detroit was 176 (representing 1,187 deaths). In Wayne County there were 135 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (910 total deaths), in Oakland County there were 125 deaths per 100,000 people (843 total deaths), and in Macomb County there were 104 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (698 total).

The State of Michigan had 45 COVID deaths per 100,000 people, a rate that continues to remain lower than the four entities discussed above.

The fatality rate for Detroit and Macomb, Oakland and Macomb counties reached 11 percent or higher on May 10, with Detroit having the highest rate at 12.2 percent. The State’s fatality rate also gradually increased to 9.7 percent.

One reason we may be seeing such high fatality rates in Michigan is due to the low testing rates. When only having-presumably-a lower of number confirmed COVID cases than is actually likely due to the limited availability of tests, the fatality rate appears higher because the base comparison is smaller than it might be.

While the State reported its lowest number of daily deaths since March on May 10 (25), it also reported that 22,686 people have recovered from the virus. These statistics coupled with the fact that the curves for the total number of COVID cases and deaths are flattening show signs that we are beginning to overcome the virus. However, the key word is beginning. Many of those who have been deemed as “recovered” are still battling longer-term affects from the virus, according to a recent Free Press article. Additionally, just because the curve is flattening now doesn’t mean there won’t be another spike in cases and deaths in the future. This could very easily happen if the Stay-at-Home order is broken too soon or people begin to disregard other health recommendations, such as wearing a mask in public and/or congregating in groups. Ultimately, the risk of community spread for the virus remains high and the long-term effects once someone is infected still remain fairly unknown. This is why we must continued to heed the recommendations set forth by the Centers for Disease Control and the State.

COVID Deaths Continue to Decrease in Southeastern Michigan

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According to the State of Michigan, the total number of COVID cases in Michigan rose to 43,754, an increase of 547 cases from the previous day. This total was equivalent to 438 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 4) on May 3. The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing and/or the quality of reporting or failure to report. That curve continues to move steadily upward, with the rate of increase veering up over the weekend. Note that this five day rolling average causes  these daily case and the daily death charts to lag two days behind.

Chart 2 reflects the five-day rolling averages at the County level and for the City of Detroit. The number of COVID cases in Detroit continue to increase and remain the highest in the region; the City reported 9,168 as of May 1. Wayne County continues to pull away from the other counties in the region, having the second highest cumulative number of cases at 7,751. On May 1 the five-day rolling average for the number of COVID cases in Oakland County was 7,368, and for Macomb County the reported number was 5,598.

Chart 3 shows that Detroit again had the highest number of new daily cases on May 1 but the overall rate of change was slightly downward. Wayne and Oakland counties experienced a decrease in the number of new confirmed COVID cases while Macomb County experienced an increase.

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data were supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State.

The City of Detroit had 1,395 COVID cases per 100,000 people on May 1, an increase from 1,380 the day before (Chart 4). This is based upon a reported increase of 106 new cases, bringing the total number of COVID cases in Detroit to 9,386. Wayne County reported 1,176 cases per 100,000 people, and Oakland County had 1,118 cases per 100,000 people. These May 3 per capita rates were based upon 7,912 total cases for Wayne and 7,518 for Oakland. Macomb County reported 856 cases per 100,000 people, which is based upon 5,756 cases.

Chart 5 shows that Detroit continues to have the highest number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people, but experienced a decline on May 3 while Macomb and Wayne counties experienced an increase. Detroit had 16 new COVID cases per 100,000 people, which was equivalent to 106 new cases. Wayne County had 8 new cases per 100,000 people on May 3, which was equivalent to 86 new cases, and Macomb County had 10 new cases per 100,000 people, which was equivalent to 90 new cases. Oakland County also experienced a decline in the per capita rate for new daily COVID cases. On May 3, Oakland had 3 new COVID cases per 100,000 people, equating to 43 new cases.

 The State’s per capita rate was 5.4 new cases per 100,000 people, equivalent to 547 new cases.

In Chart 6 the five-day rolling average for the number of deaths shows a continuing steady increase (a lagged number of 3,879 deaths, an increase of 60 deaths). The actual reported COVID-19 deaths reached 4,049 on May 3, an increase of 29 deaths from the day prior. Chart 7, a five-day rolling average chart, shows the number of daily additional deaths has been declining overall since April 23. The trends in Chart 9 further show a clear pattern of decline in the number of additional daily deaths across Detroit and the counties of Southeastern Michigan.

Chart 8, a five-day rolling average for the number of cumulative COVID deaths by each county, shows how the number of deaths in Detroit continue to rise at a more rapid rate than any of the other government entities in the region. However, the City’s rate of increase has declined in the last few days, and may continue to do so as the number of new deaths in the City also continue to decline. Despite this, Detroit also continues to have the highest number of COVID deaths. Second to Detroit, Wayne County has the highest number of total reported COVID deaths, and those numbers are increasing at a rate faster than Macomb and Oakland counties. Of the three largest counties and Detroit, Macomb County’s total number of COVID deaths is increasing at the slowest rate.

Chart 9 shows a steep decline in the number of daily deaths in Detroit, a decline that has been occurring since April 23. This continued decline put Wayne and Oakland counties ahead of Detroit for the number of daily COVID deaths. The most recent drop in the number of additional daily deaths for Detroit may reflect a a lag in reporting, however. On May 3 Detroit didn’t report any new deaths, which has not happened since the first reported COVID death in March.

Chart 10 represents the total number of COVID deaths per 100,000 people. For Detroit on May 3 there were 161 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (representing 1,085 deaths). In Wayne County there were 120 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (808 total deaths), in Oakland County there were 113 deaths per 100,000 people (757 total deaths), and in Macomb County there were 93 COVID deaths per 1000,000 people on May 3 (628 total). The State of Michigan had 41 COVID deaths per 100,000 people, a rate that continues to remain lower than the four entities discussed above. On May 3 Oakland County reported the highest number of additional deaths at 12; the State of Michigan had 29 deaths reported total.

The case fatality rate in Detroit remained above 11 percent (11.6%) on May 3 while Macomb County’s dipped just below (10.9%). Washtenaw County has been experiencing a recent increase in its fatality rate. On May 3 Washtenaw County had a fatality rate of 6.4 percent. The reported fatality rate for the State on May 3 was 9.3 percent.

The number of new COVID deaths continues to decrease around the region. However, Detroit didn’t report any new deaths on Sunday, May 3, and this has not happened since the first reported COVID death. Despite this, the data does show the number of COVID deaths has been declining in Detroit, the region and the State.

COVID Deaths in Detroit Surpass 1,000; New Daily Death Numbers Decreasing

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According to the State of Michigan, the total number of COVID cases in Michigan rose above 40,000 on April 29, bringing the new total to 40,399, an increase of 1,137 cases from the previous day. This total  was equivalent to 404.5 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 4) on April 29. The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing or the quality of reporting or failure to report. The five day rolling average means  our daily case and death charts lags two days behind. Based on this approach, the COVID cases increased to 38,570.

In Chart 2, which reflects the five-day rolling averages at the County level and for the City of Detroit,  we continue to see Detroit and Wayne County having the highest number of cases at 8,722 and 7,245 on April 27, respectively.  Those case numbers appear to be increasing at a higher rate than those in Oakland and Macomb counties, which were recorded at 6,979 and 5,291, respectively on April 27. Additionally, we have yet to see slower rate of increase in the number of cases at the State level and in Detroit, Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties.

We continue to see both an overall and recent decline in the number of new daily COVID cases in Chart 3. While the number of new reported cases is reliant on testing for the virus, there is hope that the decrease in new cases reflects a slower spread of the virus.

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data was supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State.

The City of Detroit had 1,332 COVID cases per 100,000 people on April 29, an increase from 1,310 the day before (Chart 4). This is based upon a reported increase of 146 new cases, bringing the total number of COVID cases in Detroit to 8,957. Wayne County reported 1,120 cases per 100,000 people, and Oakland County had 1,064 cases per 100,000. These April 29 per capita rates were based upon 7,537 cases for Wayne and 7,159 for Oakland. Macomb County reported 807 cases per 100,000 people, which is based upon 5,430 cases.

Chart 5 shows that Detroit and Wayne County had the highest number of new COVID cases per 100,000 people on April 29. Detroit had 22 new COVID cases on April 29 per 100,000, which was equivalent to 146 new cases, and Wayne County continued to have 16 new cases per 100,000 people (the same rate as the day before) which was equivalent to 175 new cases. This chart also shows that Oakland County’s per capita rate of new COVID cases per 100,000 people rose above the State’s rate on April 29. Oakland County’s rate was 12 new COVID cases per 100,000 people, which was equivalent to 147 new cases, and Michigan’s rate was 11.4 new COVID cases per day. The State’s per capita rate was equivalent to 1,137 new cases per day.

In Chart 6 the five-day rolling average for the number of deaths shows a continuing steady increase (a lagged number of 3,446 deaths, an increase of 117 deaths). The actual reported COVID-19 deaths reached 3,670 on April 29, an increase of 103 deaths from the day prior. Chart 7, a five-day rolling average chart, shows how the new data reflects another decline in the number of additional deaths statewide.

Chart 8, a five-day rolling average for the number of COVID deaths by each county, shows how Detroit continues to pull farther away from the other units in Southeastern Michigan when looking at the total number of COVID deaths. Wayne County, which has the second highest number of deaths, and Oakland County follow a similar pattern in COVID death totals and remain close in their numbers. Macomb County consistently has the fourth highest total number of deaths and its rate of increase appears to have experienced an uptick since mid-April.

Chart 9 shows how Detroit’s numbers of additional deaths have been declining, which is likely part of the cause of the decline at the state level. The same pattern is occurring  in Oakland County’s counts of additional deaths.  The number of daily deaths in Macomb County has been increasing over the last several days though.

Chart 10 represents the total number of COVID deaths per 100,000 people. For Detroit on April 29 there were 150 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (representing 1,008 deaths). In Wayne County there were 107 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (719 total deaths), in Oakland County there were 99 deaths per 100,000 people (668 total deaths), and in Macomb County there were 89 COVID deaths per 1000,000 people on April 29 (597 total). The State of Michigan had 38 COVID deaths per 100,000 people, a rate which was lower than the four entities discussed above. Wayne and Macomb counties both reported 25 new deaths on April 29; Detroit had 20.

The fatality rate in the City of the Detroit increased to 11.3 percent on April 29, which is higher than the State’s fatality rate (9.1 percent) and the rates of the counties in Southeastern Michigan. The fatality rate in Macomb County continued to increase on April 29, reaching 11 percent for the first time. The fatality rate in Monroe County continued to decline.

The total number of deaths in Detroit surpassed 1,000 on April 29, accounting for 27% of the 3,670 deaths in the State. So, while the number of daily deaths in Detroit has been declining in recent days, it’s clear the overall impact of the virus continues to hit Detroit hard. Detroit has experienced the largest decline in the number of additional COVID deaths in recent days, which could be a cautious sign of hope.

Rate of Spread in Southeastern Michigan Shows Signs of Slowing

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According to the State of Michigan, the total number of COVID cases in Michigan increased to 38,210 on April 28, which was an increase of 432 cases from the previous day. This total  was equivalent to 393 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 4) on April 28. The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing or the quality of reporting or failure to report. The five day rolling average means  our daily case and death charts will lag two days behind. Based on this approach, the COVID cases increased to 37,819. While the increase in the number of cases has slowed down, both Charts 1 and 2 show that we have yet to reach a plateau at the State level and for the largest counties in Southeastern Michigan. In Chart 2 it appears the counties (Wayne, Oakland and Macomb) and Detroit are experiencing a slower rate of increase now than the State of Michigan, but the increase is still there. The State’s continued increase is likely a result of increased COVID spread in areas such as Kent County, where health officials said they don’t expect a peak for another few weeks, according to Bridge Magazine.

Chart 2 reflects the five-day rolling averages at the County level and for the City of Detroit. Detroit continues to have the highest number of confirmed cases, recorded at 8,625 on April 26.  The number of cases in Wayne County increased to 7,125 for a five-day rolling average on April 26 while in Oakland County the number of cases increased to 6,908 and in Macomb County it increased to 5,210.

Chart 3 does show though an overall decline in the number of new daily COVID cases, with exception of a couple single day spikes for Detroit, Oakland, Macomb, Washtenaw and Wayne counties. With the continued increase in attempts to test more people for the virus it is very likely these spikes are a result of increased testing.

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data was supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State.

The City of Detroit had 1,310 COVID cases per 100,000 people on April 28, an increase from 1,290 the day before (Chart 4). This is based upon a reported increase of 132 new cases, bringing the total number of COVID cases in Detroit to 8,811. Wayne County reported 1,094 cases per 100,000 people, and Oakland County had 1,042 cases per 100,000. These per capita rates were based upon 7,362 and 7,012 COVID cases on April 28, respectively. Macomb County reported 794 cases per 100,000 people, which is based upon 5,339 cases.

Chart 5 shows that Detroit and Wayne County had the highest number of new COVID cases per 100,000 people on April 28. Detroit had 20 new COVID cases on April 28 per 100,000, which was equivalent to 132 new cases, and Wayne County had 16 new cases per 100,000 people which was equivalent to 169 new cases.

In Chart 6 the five-day rolling average for the number of deaths shows a continuing steady increase (a lagged number of 3,330 deaths, an increase of 118 deaths). The actual reported COVID-19 deaths reached 3,567 on April 28, an increase of 160 deaths from the day prior. Of the 160 reported new deaths, 40 of them were added to the April 28 daily total because of Vital Records and coronavirus database comparison the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services does three times a week. Chart 7, a five-day rolling average chart, reflects a smoother data set for instances such as this. Overall, Chart 7 indicates a recent decline in the number of new daily COVID deaths.

Chart 8, a five-day rolling average for the number of COVID deaths by each county, shows that the total number of deaths in Detroit continues to have a far higher rate of increase than the other units. Wayne County is second, followed by Oakland and Macomb counties. Each county but Monroe and St. Clair experienced an increase in the total number of deaths. These increases continue to be represented in Chart 9, but show a recent decline in the number of daily deaths for Detroit and Oakland County. Macomb County on the other hand has experienced a recent increase.

Chart 10 represents the total number of COVID deaths per 100,000 people. For Detroit on April 28 there were 147 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (representing 988 deaths). In Wayne County there were 103 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (694 total deaths), in Oakland County there were 97 deaths per 100,000 people (654 total deaths) and in Macomb County there were 85 COVID deaths per 1000,000 people on April 28 (572 total). The State of Michigan had 36 COVID deaths per 100,000 people, a rate which was lower than the four entities discussed above. Additionally, Macomb County experienced the highest number of new daily COVID deaths at 45 on April 28; Detroit had 38 new deaths.

The fatality rate in the City of the Detroit increased to 11.2 percent on April 28, which is higher than the State’s fatality rate (9.1 percent) and the rates of the counties in Southeastern Michigan. The fatality rate in Macomb County also spiked up on April 28 to 10.7 percent. The increases in these rates may be reflective of the additional 40 deaths the State reported on April 28 as a result of their database comparison method to discover additional COVID deaths. Monroe and Washtenaw counties experienced small decreases in their fatality rates.

The rate at which the virus is spreading in Southeastern Michigan appears to be declining at a faster rate than the spread statewide. This is likely because areas such as Kent County are not expecting their peak until mid-May. Such factors will certainly a play a role in determining what regions of the state will re-open when. Just because one area lags behind in terms of the rate of spread does not mean another area can’t experience a second peak due to travel, even within the state. 

Michigan COVID Cases Reach 38,210; Decline Yet to Be Seen

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According to the State of Michigan, the total number of COVID cases in Michigan increased to 38,210 on April 27, which was an increase of 432 cases from the previous day. This total  was equivalent to 382 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 3) on April 27. The five-day rolling average for the total number of (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing or the quality of reporting or failure to report. The five day rolling average means  our daily case and death charts will lag two days behind. The COVID cases increased to 37,025, based on this approach. Even with the smoothing, however, there is no decline.

Chart 2 reflects the five-day rolling averages at the County level and for the City of Detroit. As was shown in Chart 2, Detroit continues to have the highest number of confirmed cases, recorded at 8,526 on April 25.  The number of cases in Wayne County increased to 6,988 for a five-day rolling average on April 25 while in Oakland County the number of cases increased to 6,832 and in Macomb County it increased to 5,114.

The City of Detroit showed total COVID per capita cases of 1,289 per 100,000 people on April 27, an increase from 1,280 the day before (Chart 3); this represents a reported increase of 66 new cases. Wayne County reported 1,069 cases per 100,000 people, and Macomb County had 795 cases per 100,000. The per capita rate in Oakland County dropped to 1,028 cases per 100,000 people, when it was 1,030 the day prior. This is a result of the State reporting a decrease in the total number of cases between April 26 and 27. This is likely a lapse in reporting reflected in Chart 3, Chart 4 and Chart 5. Macomb County had the highest per capita increase between April 26 and April 27 at 22 new cases per 100,000 people.

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data was supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State.

As noted, Chart 4 shows that Oakland County had 0 new cases reported on April 27; this is due to the State reporting a decreased number of cases between April 26 and 27. To reflect this we show no new cases being reported on April 27 for Oakland County. (We’ll be checking on this number.) Macomb County reported the highest number of new COVID cases on April 27 at 142, Detroit reported 66, and Wayne County reported 58.

Chart 5 again shows that Macomb County had the highest increase in the number of new COVID cases between April 26 and April 27. On April 27 Macomb County reported 16 new COVID cases per 100,000 people; that County reported 7 new COVID cases per 100,000 on April 26. In Detroit there were 10 new COVID cases per 100,000 people from April 26 to April 27. In Wayne County there were 5 new COVID cases per 100,000 people on April 27 compared to 13 on April 26.

In Chart 6 the five-day rolling average for the number of deaths shows a continuing steady increase (a lagged number of 3,212 deaths, an increase of 119 deaths). The actual reported COVID-19 deaths reached 3,407 on April 27, an increase of 92 deaths from the day prior (Chart 7).

Breaking down the five-day rolling average of COVID deaths, Detroit still has a far higher rate of increase than the other units. Wayne County is second, followed by Oakland and Macomb counties. Each county but Monroe and St. Clair experienced an increase in the total number of deaths. These increases continue to be represented in Charts 9 and 10.

Chart 9 represents the total number of COVID deaths per 100,000 people. For Detroit on April 27 there were 141 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (equivalent to 950 deaths). In Wayne County there were 100 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (672 total deaths), in Oakland County there were 94 deaths per 100,000 people (631 total deaths) and in Macomb County there were 78 COVID deaths per 1000,000 people on April 27 (672 total). Detroit, Macomb, Oakland, Washtenaw and Wayne counties all experienced a small increase in the number of new deaths, with Detroit experiencing an increase of 28 and Wayne County experiencing an increase of 14. 

Chart 10 shows the five-day rolling average for the number of new COVID deaths, Here we see a number of counties showing a decline in additional deaths, a good sign if this trend continues.

Notably in Chart 11 we see that the fatality rate in Detroit on April 27 decreased from 10.7 percent to 10.1 percent. The data also shows that the fatality rate in Macomb County is slowly decreasing. Just last week it was the highest in the region and now it has decreased below Detroit’s rate and from its peak of 10.1 percent to 9.9 percent. The State’s fatality rate on April 27 was 8.9 percent, a small decrease from the fatality rate the day prior. These declines may represent real changes or simply an increase in testing (the denominator here).

It appears as though the number of deaths is slowing, however we also know that the State releases additional COVID death numbers through another method of confirmation sporadically throughout the week. Such data releases could reveal that we are not slowing the spread and impact of the virus as much as we think. The Governor did note yesterday that they believe there is a plateauing in the number of cases and deaths in the State.