Michigan’s Minimum Wage Increases, Changes Could Still Be Coming

January 3, 2024January 3, 2024 by Drawing Detroit | Leave a comment

Michigan’s minimum wage increased to $10.33 on Jan. 1, 2024, in accordance with the Improved Workforce Opportunity Wage Act of 2018. Under the law as it currently stands, the minimum wage is set to increase to $12.05 an hour by 2030, depending on the state’s unemployment rate. Furthermore, the tipped wage rate will increase to $3.93 an hour. Depending on a Michigan State Supreme Court ruling though, the hourly rate improvements could shift.

In 2018 a petition to increase Michigan’s minimum wage to $12 by 2022, while also accounting for inflation, received 280,000 signatures from voters. The Republican-led Michigan Legislature at the time adopted the language of the petition but then amended the language. These amendments slowed plans to increase Michigan’s minimum wage and also eliminated the plan to eventually eliminate the lower tipped wage in restaurants, instead maintaining the wage rate at 38 percent of the full minimum wage. This issue has been in Michigan Courts, with the focus specifically being on the legality of the legislature adopting petition language and then amending it. The Michigan Court of Appeals issued an opinion ruling that found the Michigan Legislature did not act unconstitutionally when it adopted petition language and amended in the same session in 2018. This opinion has been appealed and the issue is now being taken up by the Michigan Supreme Court.

As is shown in the chart below, Michigan’s minimum wage has been steadily increasing since 2015 when it was $8.15 an hour. Prior to that it plateaued at $7.40 an hour between 2009 to 2013. Michigan’s minimum wage also remained stagnant between 1998 and 2006, 1981 to 1997, 1976 to 1978, 1972 to 1975 and 1968 to 1971, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

In theory, increasing the minimum wage will also increase the earnings of most low-wage workers. With a minimum wage of $10.33 an hour in 2024, a full-time worker earning that wage could make about $21,400 a year, assuming they worked 40 hours a week for a full year. This would be an increase, if making the same assumptions, from an annual salary of about $20,500 a year with an hourly rate of $10.10 (2023 minimum wage). According to the US Census Bureau, less than 10 percent of households in each county in Southeast Michigan made between $15,000 and $24,999 a year in 2022. So, even with a minimum wage increase, many of those households earning below $25,000 a year will remain under that threshold. This is a threshold that is below the poverty level for a family of four.

According to Healthcare.gov, an individual earning $13,590 or below in 2022 was considered to be living at or below the poverty level, this number increased to $14,580 in 2023. For a family of four the poverty level was $27,750 in 2022 and $30,000 in 2023.

In 2022, the year for which the most recent data is available, Wayne County had the highest percentage of households living at or below the poverty level in the seven-county region at 20.2 percent. Monroe, St. Clair and Washtenaw counties were the only other ones in the region with more than 10 percent of households living at or below the poverty level. Wayne County also had the highest percentage of households earning between $15,000 and $24,999 a year at 9.3 percent. Furthermore, Wayne County had the lowest median household income in the region at $55,867. Livingston County had the lowest percentage of households living at or below the poverty level in 2022 at 4.9 percent and had the highest median income at $100,139.

So, while the minimum wage increased in Michigan, and helping those with among the lowest earnings in the state, the gap between the minimum wage and a living wage still exists. A living wage is the hourly rate that an individual in a household must earn to support his or herself and their family. According to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, $16.27 an hour is the amount an individual needs to earn to make a living wage.

An increased minimum wage not only increases the earnings of some of Michigan’s lowest earning workers, but it also has been shown to have positive impacts on physical and mental health, well-being and educational outcomes.

Signs Show Evidence of an Economic Slow Down in Michigan

April 23, 2023April 23, 2023 by Drawing Detroit | Leave a comment

Michigan is not experiencing a deep recession but there are signs that the economy is beginning to slow down. From unemployment rates to the cost of housing, the signs of a recession are evident, and according to presentations given at the Detroit Economic Club on April 13, a recession will likely start this summer.

One telltale sign of a slowing economy is an increased jobless rate. In Michigan, the unemployment rate has remained steady, and amongst recent lows, since June of 2022 though. In February of 2023 the state unemployment rate was reported at 4.3 percent. According to the Michigan Department of Technology, Management and Budget, layoffs are occurring though. In through March of 2023, 14 companies sent notices of layoffs or closure notices, or Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notifications (WARN). These 14 companies sent a total of 2,112 notices, with Prospect Airport Services in Detroit sending the most at 516. Comparatively, by the same time in 2022 six companies sent layoff notices and in 2021 three companies had sent layoff notices. Also, according to news reports, General Motors is offering buyouts to up to 3,500 salaried workers, and Stellantis is cutting and consolidating at least 408 positions at the Detroit assembly plants.

While the recent Stellantis layoff notices are not reflected in the most recent Detroit unemployment data, how large companies are restructuring should be kept in mind with a possible recession looming. According to the Michigan Department of Michigan Technology, Management and Budget unemployment in Detroit declined to 7.7 percent in February of 2023; in February of 2022 the unemployment rate was at 12.1 percent.

The chart below provides a more detailed look at unemployment rates throughout Southeast Michigan, both currently and a year ago. According to the data, unemployment rates for all seven counties in Southeastern Michigan were less in February of 2023 than they were in February of 2022. Monroe County had the highest unemployment rates in both February of 2023 and 2022 at 5.1 and 6.2, respectively. Wayne County had the largest decrease in its unemployment rate between February of 2022 and 2023 at 1.8 percent. In February of 2022 Wayne County’s unemployment rate was 6.2 percent, and in 2023 it was 4.4 percent.

Livingston County continued to have the lowest unemployment rate in the region at 3 percent in February of 2023, followed by Washtenaw County with an unemployment rate of 3.5 percent.

Livingston County continued to have the lowest unemployment rate in the region at 3 percent in February of 2023, followed by Washtenaw County with an unemployment rate of 3.5 percent.

Home prices in Metro-Detroit again decreased in January of 2023, according to the Case Shiller Index. In January of 2023, the average price of single-family dwellings sold was $168,300 , a decrease of $1,190 from the average price of a home in December of 2022. This was the largest decrease in the average home prices in Metro-Detroit since December of 2020.

While the month-to-month trend of prices increasing is easing up a look at data from year’s prior shows just how much prices have increased overall. Between January of 2023 and 2022 the average price increased $4,960; between January of 2022 and 2020 the price increased $39,020 and between January of 2023 and 2014 the average price has increased $74,380.

Opioid Harm Reduction Programs in Michigan as Overdoses Continue to Rise

April 11, 2023April 11, 2023 by Drawing Detroit | Leave a comment

The fact that Michigan is experiencing an opioid epidemic has been well-established. With fatal overdoses on the rise, particularly in Washtenaw and Wayne counties it is vital to not only acknowledge that the epidemic is in fact in full swing, but that there is hope by way of harm reduction practices. According to the US Centers for Disease Control, “harm reduction is a public health approach that focuses on mitigating the harmful consequences of drug use, including transmission of infectious disease and prevention of overdose, through provision of care that is intended to be free of stigma and centered on the needs of people who use drugs.” Harm reduction activities include naloxone distribution, provision of sterile syringes, education and prevention regarding overdoses and safer drugs and other activities that can lessen the risk of adverse outcomes associated with using drugs.

Several harm reduction activities are offered throughout Michigan, and administered through various organizations. For example, in Michigan various places have naloxone portal kits that have been distributed through the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services (MDHSS). A naloxone portal kit typically contains two doses of naloxone, two nasal misters and directions on use. Naloxone is a medicine that reverses the effects of opioid overdoses, restoring normal breathing and consciousness of a person experiencing overdose symptoms (Narcan is the nasal spray version of this).

According to MDHHS, Wayne County had the highest number of naloxone kits distributed to various organizations by the end of 2022 at 52,464. Macomb County had the second highest number of kits at 35,328 and Livingston County had the lowest number of kits distributed to various organizations by the MDHHS by the end of 2022 at 2,148. The type of organizations these kits were distributed to include first responders, courts, treatment and recovery centers, correctional facilities, health departments, academic institutions and community organizations and non-profit organizations. Throughout Michigan, community organizations and non-profit organizations received the highest number of kits. Of the 334,152 kits distributed throughout Michigan by the end of 2022, 198,780 (or 59%) of the kits were distributed to community organizations and non-profit organizations, according to the MDHHS.

Academic institutions were also included in the list of organizations that receive and distribute naloxone kits. Through Wayne State University’s Center for Urban Studies, the AmeriCorps Community Training for Overdose Rescue (ACT) administers free training for Southeast Michigan community members to prepare people to provide aid during an overdose emergency while waiting for help to arrive. All training participants receive a free Overdose Preparedness Kit containing Narcan. Such training is part of the Strategies and Tools for Overdose Prevention (STOP) program, which is a harm reduction initiative conducting research, delivering training and distributing naloxone in Southeast Michigan. Since October 2019, the ACT/STOP program through the Center for Urban Studies has hosted 235 overdose rescue training sessions and equipped 3,501 people with the skills and knowledge to provide first aid during opioid overdose emergencies.

Another harm reduction tool for opioid use in Michigan is the standing order issued the by the MDHHS that allows licensed pharmacies to dispense naloxone to the public. Of the percent of registered pharmacies in each of the seven counties in Southeast Michigan, St. Clair County had the highest percentage of pharmacies participating the in the standing naloxone order at 79 percent (26 pharmacies). Wayne County had the lowest participating at 50 percent (319 pharmacies).

An additional harm reduction practice is the existence of Syringe Service Programs. These data below shows the percent of the population within a 15-minute drive of a Syringe Service Program funded by the MDHHS. These programs are considered a form of harm reduction because they offer sterile injection equipment and provide a linkage to substance use disorder treatment.

Washtenaw County had the highest percentage of the population that lived within a 15-minute drive of a Syringe Service Program in Michigan at 82.9 percent. Wayne County had the second highest percentage of the population within a 15-minute drive of a Syringe Service Program at 81.7 percent.

Livingston County had the lowest percentage regionally with 0.5 percent of the population being with a 15-minute drive to a Syringe Service Program. While this percentage was much lower than the other counties’, Livingston County had the 53^rd highest percentage of the population within a 15-minute drive to a program.

The use of Buprenorphine is harm reduction to meant to treat opioid disorder. Buprenorphine is a medication approved by the Food and Drug Administration to treat opioid use disorder.

In Southeast Michigan, Monroe County had the highest Buprenorphine prescription unit rate per 1,000 people in 2020 at 3,950.5, followed by St. Clair County with a rate of 2,978.5. Higher rates of Buprenorphine are viewed as favorable in the calculating the MI-SUVI rate because the drug aims to treat addiction. Oakland County had the lowest Buprenorphine prescription rate at 1,485.6 per 1,000 people.

The Buprenorphine rate is based on the prescription units.

As shown, harm reduction programs and policies are in motion in Michigan. And while opioid use still continues, these approaches, according to the CDC, have been proven to prevent death, injury, disease, overdose, and substance misuse.

Even with such programs in place, overdoses do still occur. It is important to be aware of the signs and to know what to do in the event someone has overdosed. According to the ACT/STOP training, signs of an opioid overdose are:

Pinpoint pupils
- Not breathing normally (infrequent or no breathing at all, deep snoring or gurgling)
- Pale – lips and fingertips may be blue/gray
- Not responsive to touch or sound
- Signs of substance use around: syringes, pill bottles, other substances.

Should someone be experiencing an overdose, you should decide to help. Michigan’s Good Samaritan Laws protect you from legal action and lawsuits if unintended consequences result from your assistance.

Ways to help include, if someone is not breathing normally, begin hands-only CPR right away and call 911 immediately. If someone is unconscious but breathing normally, administer Narcan then place them in the recovery position.

For more information on Wayne State University Center for Urban Studies’ ACT program click here. You can also find information on Syringe Service Programs and how to receive naloxone here.

Young Females, Black Community Impacted by Opioid Use, Overdose

March 7, 2023March 7, 2023 by Drawing Detroit | Leave a comment

We know, according to the new Michigan Substance Use Vulnerability Index (MI-SUVI), that St. Clair and Wayne counties are the most vulnerable when it comes to substance use in Southeastern Michigan. Additional data shows that it isn’t just residents of those counties who are vulnerable to opioid use, and related harm, though. Rather the black community and the young female population appear to be amongst the most vulnerable populations when it comes to opioid use, death and related Emergency Department visits.

In general, we know that the number of opioid related deaths are increasing across the State of Michigan. When examining just the number of opioid related deaths in Southeastern Michigan we also know that Wayne County has the highest number of such deaths, in part due to it having the highest population in the state. However, the chart below shows that in recent years only Wayne and Macomb counties have been experiencing noticeable increases in the number of opioid related deaths. In 2020, Wayne County recorded 706 opioid related deaths and Macomb County reported 269; these are increases from the 660 opioid related deaths Wayne County recorded in 2019 and the 215 Macomb County recorded. Monroe County also experienced an increase in the number of opioid related deaths between 2019 and 2020.

It should be noted that while the state has some data for opioid related deaths in 2021 it was not accessible at the county level. Additionally, data for opioid related deaths in Oakland County was not available for the year 2018 and beyond; this data was suppressed according to the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services.

As the data below shows, males in Michigan have regularly had a higher number of opioid related deaths as compared to women. In 2021 there were 1,528 opioid related deaths amongst Michigan males and 672 amongst Michigan females. (See the chart below.) In 2000, when the data started to be tracked, there were 98 and 25 opioid deaths, respectively. While the number of opioid related overdose deaths for both males and females has been growing, officials are also zeroing on data related to a specific age group of females.

According to the State of Michigan, in 2021, most overdose Emergency Departments visits among young women and girls were intentional and related to self-harm. According to the State, there were 602 more intentional overdose Emergency Department visits among females between the ages of 11-24 years old than in 2020. This was a 30 percent increase. These data further indicate that only 2 percent of that overdose Emergency Departments visits were related to opioids (40% Non-opioid analgesics, antirheumatics, and antipyretics, 25% were related to anti-depressants and 3% were related to psycho-stimulants).

These data indicate how important mental health is in substance use and addiction. That are many factors that impact a person’s mental health, but this recent study by the State highlights how young women are just one group with an increased risk of substance use and its impacts.

The data below shows the number of opioid related deaths for Black males and females and White males and females to further show the details of opioid death trends. While the raw numbers highlight that White Males have always had the highest number of opioid related deaths (1,199 in 2021), followed by White females (542 in 2021), the number of opioid related deaths in the Black male community are rapidly increasing.

In 2000 there were 32 opioid related deaths in the Black male community and by 2021 that increased to 492. The Black female community had 19 reported opioid related deaths in 2000 and by 2021 that increased to 216. The data clearly shows an increase, but we must also be considered that much of this may be related to measurement or aggregation of the data.

According to the Michigan Overdose Data to Action Dashboard, between August 2021 to July 2022 759 Black Michiganders died from an opioid overdose. According to the National Institute on Drug Abuse, the trend we are seeing in Michigan of increased opioid related deaths is also a national trend. According to the institute, Black individuals in four U.S. states(New York, Massachusetts, Kentucky, Ohio) experienced a 38 percent increase in the rate of opioid overdose deaths between 2018 to 2019. Many of these overdoses were driven by heroin and fentanyl, according to the National Institute on Drug Abuse.
While these numbers continue to increase, the focus on the addressing the forces behind these overdose deaths, including the harm reduction from the drugs themselves and the breakdown of societal structures that contribute to them, are increasing. According to NIDA Director Nora D. Volkow, M.D., ”systemic racism fuels the opioid crisis, just as it contributes mightily to other areas of health disparities and inequity, especially for Black people.”

As we have briefly touched on, the way to tackle the opioid epidemic in our state, and our country, is to create multi-faceted policies and programs that directly address specific communities. There is no blanket approach to tackling the opioid epidemic, but as we will show in our next post, several programs in Michigan are making headway.

Michigan’s Substance Use Vulnerability Index Highlights Wayne County as one of State’s Most Vulnerable

February 15, 2023February 15, 2023 by Drawing Detroit | Leave a comment

In Southeast Michigan, St. Clair and Wayne counties are the most vulnerable when it comes to substance use, according to the Michigan Substance Use Vulnerability Index (MI-SUVI). This index provides a score, balancing the eight factors listed below:

Overdose death rate
Nonfatal overdose emergency department visit rate
Opioid prescribing rate
Drug-related arrest rate
Percent of the population within a 30-minute drive to a treatment center
Percent of the population within a 15-drive drive to a syringe service program
Buprenorphine prescribing rate
And the Social Vulnerability Index (This is the Centers for Disease Control’s own measure that looks at social detriments to health, like technology access and healthcare access. We explored this in a previous post.)

The scores above are separated into three categories (Burden Rank, Resource Rank and Social Vulnerability Rank), each receiving a score in and of itself. Once the factors and rankings are determined, a final score is then provided to determine the vulnerability of an area to substance use. The factors listed below all use data from 2020, 2021 or an average of 2016-2020.

The information described above is part of the State of Michigan’s new Overdose data to Action Dashboard, which digs deep into the data above, serving as resource to stakeholders across the state who are working to address substance use disorders.

In this post we not only show the percentile rank of MI-SUVI scores for each of the seven counties in the region, highlighting which ones have higher or low index scores, but also dig deeper into the factors behind each score.

As noted, Wayne and St. Clair counties had the highest MI-SUVI index percentile ranks in the region at 97.6 percent and 59 percent, respectively. Wayne County not only had the highest index in the region, but the second-highest in the state (Oscoda County had the highest index in the state at 98.8 percent). In other words, Oscoda County was the most vulnerable county when it came to substance use and Wayne County was the second most vulnerable county.

What contributed to such a high score? Well, as shown through several data points below, Wayne County had the highest fatal and nonfatal overdose rates in the region in 2020 and is in the middle-third of opioid prescriptions issued in a county statewide. Wayne County does provide a greater amount of access to resources that some counties throughout the state and region, but even so, its burden rank weighs heavily on the county’s scoring.

Livingston County had the lowest Michigan Substance Use Vulnerability Index percentile rank at 1.2 percent. Overall, Livingston County ranked 83^rd on the MI-SUVI index—there are 83 counties in Michigan. This ranking is because of its low burden and social vulnerability index rankings and its average resource ranking.

Between 2016 and 2020 the five-year average for the number of all fatal overdoses in Wayne County was 42.1 per 100,000 people, according to the Michigan Opioid Data to Action Dashboard. Wayne County had the second highest fatal overdose rate in the state; Genesee County had the highest rate at 42.9. Regionally, Macomb County had the second highest fatal overdose rate at 37.3 per 100,000.

Oakland County had the lowest five-year average fatal overdose rate per 100,000 people at 13.4.

Regionally, Wayne County also had the highest non-fatal overdose emergency room visit rate per 100,000 people at 427.8. This rate ranked fourth in the state. The drug overdoses counted for this emergency room visit category represents all drug overdoses—not just opioid overdoses. St. Clair County had the second highest non-fatal overdose emergency room visit rate per 100,000 people at 365.8. Livingston County had the lowest rate at 170.3.

The rates for this data set are based on a three-year average between 2016-2020.

For the opioid prescription rate per 100,000 people, it was not Wayne County that had the highest rate regionally, but rather St. Clair County. In 2020, according to data from the Michigan Overdose Data to Action Dashboard, St. Clair County had an opioid prescription rate of 59,685.5. St. Clair County had the 15^th highest opioid prescription rate in the state. Wayne County had an opioid prescription rate of 42,580.2 per 100,000 people, which was the 52^nd highest rate in the state.

Regionally and statewide, Washtenaw County had the lowest opioid prescribing rate of 19,420.8.

The opioid prescription rate is based on the number of prescription opioid units dispensed to treat pain.

The percent of the population within a 15-minute drive of a Syringe Service Program measure is one of the factors in the MI-SUVI rate because it is a harm reduction indicator. This indicator represents the number of Syringe Service Programs funded by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services. These programs are considered a form of harm reduction because they offer sterile injection equipment and provide a linkage to substance use disorder treatment.

Buprenorphine is a medication, approved by the Food and Drug Administration, to treat opioid use disorder. Access to this prescription is also viewed as a harm reduction indicator, which is why it is one of the factors in determining the MI-SUVI rate of a county.

As with the opioid prescription rate, the Buprenorphine rate is based on the prescription units.

The data discussed above provides a fair amount of insight into the ever-growing concerns and consequences of opioid addiction across Southeast Michigan and the state. And while we have a better understanding of what counties are more vulnerable to the impacts of this disease than others, there is still much more to be known. Over the next several weeks we will further examine the hard reduction programs in place—what services they offer, what their impacts are and how they are growing in numbers. We will also dig deeper into who is most impacted by opioid addiction and what factors impact that. And finally, we will discuss the National Opioid Lawsuit and its impact on Michigan and its communities.

Just as with addiction itself, understanding the intricacies of the data presented by the State is vital in establishing a comprehensive and effective plan to reduce the harm, and existence itself, of opioid addiction.

Climate Change in Michigan–Now and in the Future

January 19, 2023January 19, 2023 by Drawing Detroit | Leave a comment

Climate change is multi-faceted in both its causes and effects. In Michigan, and more specifically Metro-Detroit, many of the causes of these drastic shifts in weather patterns are the same across the globe— the continued use and overuse of fossil fuels, increased carbon emissions, desecration of natural resources. What are the effects?

Increased Average Temperature

Temperatures have already risen 2.5 degrees in Michigan. Summers are hotter, and heatwaves are stronger and last longer. Fast forward to 2100, summers in Isle Royale National Park are expected to 11 degrees hotter, according to statesatrisk.org.

The chart below shows just how Michigan’s annual daily temperatures have changed since 1900 and how they are expected to change up to 2100, depending on the amount of emissions we continue to pump into the environment. The observed data is through 2020 and shows that Michigan’s average temperature has increased by nearly 3 degrees (Fahrenheit) over time. According to the data set from The Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), even with lower emissions temperatures are expected to increase in Michigan by a minimum of 3 degrees through 2100. That number could increase to at least 12 degrees though if the emissions we produce increase.

Increased Flooding

With increasing temperatures that means hotter air, which holds more water. More water means storms produce heavier rainstorms that are slower to move on, meaning greater accumulations of rain.

In 2020 30,000 residents of Southeast Michigan found their homes flooded. Six years earlier, in 2014, there was another great flood—these 100 year events happened within six years of each other.

According to the June 2021 report “Household Flooding in Detroit” by Healthy Urban Waters, in partnership with the Wayne State Center for Urban Studies and others, 43 percent of 4,667 Detroit households surveyed between 2012-2020 reported household flooding. Furthermore, in an online Detroit Office of Sustainability survey published in 2018, 13 percent of those survey reported they experienced flooding very often; 23 percent reported they experienced flooding somewhat often and 32 percent reported they experienced it occasionally. Additionally, a cross-sectional study published in 2016 of 164 homes in Detroit’s Warrendale neighborhood indicated that 64 percent of homes experienced at least one flooding event in during that, with many experiencing three or four events, according to the report.

The map below is a projection map developed by the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments group that shows how precipitation is expected to increase in Southeastern Michigan and the middle of the state to about 2.25 inches between 2040 and 2059 with increased emissions. While Southeastern Michigan will face continued potential flooding events, the data prediction also shows that the western side of the state will have a decrease in precipitation.

An Increased Number of Heat Islands

A heat island, according to the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), is an area where heat is intensified due to structures, such as buildings and roads, that absorb and re-emit the sun’s heat far more than natural landscapes, such as forests and bodies of water. Urban areas, where these structures are highly concentrated and greenery is limited, become “islands” of higher temperatures relative to the outlying areas. Temperatures in such heat islands can be 1 to 7 degrees higher than neighboring areas. The Detroit metropolitan area contains heat islands.

Heat islands can be problematic, according to the EPA, because they can lead to increased energy consumption, increase the emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases and compromise water quality—all of which just further perpetuate climate change. Additionally, heat islands can have negative effects on human health.

The map below was developed by the CAPA Heat Watch program, through a partnership with the National Integrated Heat Health Information System, NOAA Climate Program Office and the National Weather Service. This map was created from 2020 data and highlights how afternoon temperatures varied depending on the land coverage. For example, on the east side of the City, closer to the river, those areas have greater tree coverage so therefore tend to have cooler temperatures. However, areas with fewer trees, denser residential areas and wider streets have higher temperatures. As noted, this is how heat islands are created and these exist, for example, across the river from Belle Isle and several pockets on the City’s west side.

Less, or More, Ice Coverage

According to the GLISA, the depth of a lake impacts how rapidly ice can form. So with a shallower lake, there is a greater chance of ice coverage. While depth impacts the ability for a lake to freezer over so does temperature, and with temperatures above freezing there is less to no ice coverage. Less ice means moisture evaporates into the atmosphere easier, leading way to increased amounts of snow and rain in Michigan.

Also, according to the GLISA, water temperatures in the fall determine the amount of evaporation from the lake surface because the temperature difference between the air and lake surface temperatures can accelerate evaporation, with warmer water temperatures resulting in greater evaporation. According to the GLISA, “the evaporation removes latent heat from the surface, resulting in a cooling of the surface, and the potential for greater ice cover. For example, if the previous winter experienced low amounts of ice cover (more solar warming), higher evaporation rates (strong cooling effect) during the fall would lead to increased ice cover the next winter. Conversely, cooler water temperatures during fall leads to lower evaporation rates (less cooling) thereby decreased ice cover.”

The effects of climate change on Michigan and Metro-Detroit are apparent with impacts on the daily lives of many. Over the next year we will dig into some of the major contributors to climate change in the region, what policies are being developed to combat the impacts climate change (and how they will work) and what the future of Metro-Detroit may be with a new climate to adapt do.

Revisiting the November Election as we Enter the 2023 Legislative Term

January 3, 2023January 3, 2023 by Drawing Detroit | Leave a comment

First the first time in about 40 years, Democrats will control the upcoming legislative session with Gov. Gretchen Whitmer winning re-election with 54.5 percent of the vote, Democrats winning 20 of the 38 seats in the State Senate and also winning 56 of the 110 seats in the State House of Representatives, according to official Michigan election results.

Prior to the election there was a buzz that Republicans may not only keep control of the legislature but also take control of the Governor seat (and the Secretary of State and Attorney General seats as well). But, that was not the case.

Some facts about the 2022 Gubernatorial Election as it pertains to Michigan, and Southeast Michigan?

Gov. Whitmer won 54.5 percent of the statewide vote and Republican opponent Tudor Dixon won 43.9 percent of the vote, according to official election results. In Southeastern Michigan four of the seven counties in the region voted in favor of Whitmer; those same counties also had a majority percent of voters vote straight party ticket for Democrats over Republicans. The voter counties in the region that voted in favor of Whitmer, and Democrats in general, were Macomb, Oakland, Washtenaw and Wayne counties.

Gov. Whitmer took the highest percentage of votes in Washtenaw County at 75.1 percent; 75.3 percent of Washtenaw County also voted straight party ticket for the Democrat party.

In Macomb County, which Gov. Whitmer also won in 2018 but where former President Donald Trump (R) won in 2016, Gov. Whitmer increased the percentage by which she won from the last time. In 2022 Gov. Whitmer took 51.8 percent of the vote in Macomb County. And, while this county did go blue, it had the lowest percentage of Democrat votes as compared to the other three counties in the region that also went blue. In Wayne County Gov. Whitmer garnered 70.8 percent of the vote and in Oakland County she garnered 61 percent of the vote.

Reports indicate that garnering majority of the votes from Macomb and Oakland counties played key roles in Gov. Whitmer’s win. According to MLive, the last time a candidate won the governor’s election while losing Oakland County was in 1982.

On the other side, of the seven counties in the region it was Livingston County where Dixon garnered the highest percentage of votes at 65.5 percent. In St. Clair County she had 57.8 percent of the vote and in Monroe County she had 55.5 percent of the vote.

St. Clair County had the highest percentage of straight party ticket Republican votes at 64.4 percent.
When examining the results for the State legislature we know that nearly a majority of those who returning to the State legislature are incumbents ( 53 incumbents in the 110 person House of Representatives and 22 incumbents in the 38 person State Senate). Furthermore, of the 53 House of Representatives incumbents, 20 are Democrats and 18 are Republicans. The make up of the 22 State Senate incumbent roster is 11 of whom are Republicans and 11 who are Democrats. Overall though, according to Bridge Michigan, 10 percent of incumbents who ran for re-election this year lost in either the primary or general election. One such incumbent at the Senate level was Mike MacDonald (R-Macomb Township). With the redistricting of legislative seats, MacDonald faced (state legislator) newcomer Veronica Klinefelt (D); Klinefelt garnered 53 percent of the vote and MacDonald garnered 42 percent.
As noted, Macomb County went blue for several state related races, but at the local level the Macomb County Board of Commissioners remains controlled by the Republicans and at the Congressional level a Republican won the race for the new 10th Michigan Congressional District.

In Macomb County, Congressman-elect John James (R) won 48.6 percent of the vote and his opponent Carl Marlinga (D) took 48.4 percent of the vote in Macomb County. For the entire district, which spans into the Rochester area as well, Marlinga won 48.8 percent of the vote.

With the next legislative term ready to begin, agendas and priorities are already being discussed at the national, state and local levels. Key priorities Drawing Detroit will be giving keen attention to in the coming year include climate change topics such as heat islands, flooding, changing water, carbon and temperature levels, electric vehicle fleets and more.

Right-to-Work, A Michigan Legislative Priority Come 2023?

December 12, 2022December 12, 2022 by Drawing Detroit | Leave a comment

Michigan’s Right-to-Work Law may very well be a legislative priority come 2023.

The Right-to-Work law was approved in 2012, allowing workers to opt out of paying dues in union represented jobs while still receiving the benefits of being in a union. When Right-to-Work passed Michigan was led by Republicans, but this is about to change in the State.

Following the November General Election there will now be 20 Democrats and 18 Republicans making up the Michigan State Senate and 56 Democrats and 54 Republicans making up the Michigan House of Representatives. Additionally, Democrats continue to hold the top elected seats—Governor, Secretary of State and Attorney General.

With about a month left until the 2023 legislative session kicks off there is speculation that a repeal of this law may be priority for Democrats.

What do we know about unions in Michigan?

First off, organized labor unions were created to advocate for better wages and safer working conditions for employees. In Michigan, some of the largest union organizations include the United Auto Works, the International Brotherhood of Teamsters and the Michigan Education Association.

Since 2010 the percentage of employed individuals in Michigan who are members of unions declined from 16.5 percent in 2010 to 13.3 percent in 2021, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In 2021 there were about 540,000 union members in Michigan, with an additional 80,000 wage and salary workers also being represented by a union, according to the BLS. The percentage of employees who are in unions in Michigan reached its peak in 1989 when 26 percent of the workforce was in a union. As noted earlier, Right-to-Work was passed in 2012, and union membership has not exceeded the 2012 percent of employee union representation of 17 since then.

The percentage of employed individuals represented by a union has declined in Michigan, but not as much as membership. According to the BLS, in 2021 15.3 percent of employed individuals in Michigan were represented by a union, a decline from the 17.3 percent representation in 2010 and the 16.6 percent representation in 2020.

While union membership and representation has declined over the last decade, the larger argument at the moment (or so it seems) is what would repealing Right-to-Work in Michigan do for the economy?

One argument is that Right-to-Work states have a higher probability of recruiting manufacturing companies, according to a recent Bridge Michigan article. And, while this may be the case, what will be the wages of those jobs and would they attract employees?

In terms of manufacturing jobs, establishments and wages we know that, overall, those have all increased since 2010, as is shown in the charts below with data from the Michigan Department of Technology, Management and Budget.

In 2010 there were 475,671 manufacturing employees in Michigan and by 2021 that number increased to 585,885. There was a dip in the number of employees in 2020; in 2019 there were 625,766 employees and in 2020 that decreased to 584,818. That number is starting to trend upward again.

There has been a steady increase in the number of manufacturing establishments since 2010 as well, with there being 13,860 manufacturing establishments in Michigan in 2010 and 17,837 in 2021, according to the Michigan Department of Technology, Management and Budget.

Finally, the average weekly earnings of manufacturing employees have also increased since 2010 but they have not kept up with inflation. As shown in the third chart below, the average weekly earnings of a manufacturing employee in Michigan in 2010 was $1,149, and by 2021 that increased to $1,379. The earnings in that time frame increased by 16 percent but inflation between 2010 and 2021 affected the dollar by 36 percent. In other words, the wage increases did not keep up with inflation.

As political leaders and organizations begin to layout their legislative priorities for the upcoming year it will be interesting to see what tops the list. Area news outlets are reporting that expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit and gun reform are some of the issues that will make its way to the 2023 legislative sessions. At the national level, according to a New York Times article, applications for union elections this year are on pace to approach their highest level in a decade, and according to an August, 2022 Gallup Poll 71 percent of Americans currently approve of labor unions, and 40 percent of union members say their membership is “extremely important.“

Whether or not Right-to-Work will resurface as a top issue in Michigan remains unknown though.

Small Businesses Growth in Michigan is Occurring, But at What Pace?

December 5, 2022December 5, 2022 by Drawing Detroit | Leave a comment

The growth of small businesses, or lack thereof, in Michigan varies depending on the sources.

While we know business closures have declined since the height of the pandemic and business applications continue to be submitted, anecdotes around employment in Southeastern Michigan tell a story that larger companies, which often have the capacity to offer higher wages and additional benefits, are gaining and retaining more employees than smaller businesses.

The data that we do know is that, according to a May 2022 press release from Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s office there are 902,000 small businesses in Michigan which employ 1.9 million individuals. We also know that unemployment in Detroit and Michigan has seen an overall decline. In September of 2022, according to the Michigan Department of Technology, Management and Budget the unemployment rate for the City of Detroit was 7 percent; the unemployment rate for the State of Michigan was 4.1 percent. These are two of the lowest unemployment rates each area has seen in over two years. When comparing unemployment rates by county between September of 2021 and September of 2022 we again see that unemployment rates for September of 2022 were down from the year prior. Overall, Livingston County had the lowest unemployment rate of 2.1 percent in September of 2022 and Wayne County experienced the largest decline with its unemployment rate changing from 7.3 percent in September of 2021 to 4 percent in September of 2022.

While low unemployment rates are one sign of a strong economy, according to a recent Detroit News article, 88 percent of respondents in a Goldman Sachs survey said small businesses are struggling compared to larger businesses. The reason? According to the survey, 42 percent of respondents said they lost employees to larger businesses that are paying more. With inflation continuing to rise, this is not surprising.

However, despite such challenges laid out by survey respondents, according to the 18^th Annual Small Business Association of Michigan Entrepreneurship Score Card, since 2020 small businesses in Michigan have outperformed the U.S. as a whole in terms of percent growth in businesses open and business revenue.

According to the scorecard, between January of 2020 and Feb. 6, 2022 small businesses in the State of Michigan have opened at a rate of 8.5 percent. In the U.S. small businesses have opened at a rate of 3.1 percent in that time frame. The Michigan rate represents an increase in small business revenue of 24.2% compared to 8% for the U.S., the report stated.

As displayed in the first chart below, the Southeast Michigan Council of Governments (SEMCOG) obtains data for the U.S. Census Bureau on small business applications in Michigan. According to this data, there 730 High-prosperity Business Applications during the week of November 18, 2022 and 250 Small Business Applications with Planned Wages. While the data for each category can shift somewhat dramatically from week-to-week, there is an overall trend of business applications in Michigan increasing since September of 2022 yet decreasing from both earlier in 2022 and since the beginning of the pandemic.

According to SEMCOG, high-Propensity Business Applications (HBA) are applications for a federal Employer Identification Number (EIN) where the characteristics of the application indicate that it is more likely to form a business with payroll. Businesses Applications with Planned Wages (WBA) are a subset of HBA that indicate a first wages-paid date, increasing the likelihood that such a business will have a paid employees.

While the data shows businesses continue to open in Michigan, business closures slowed through April of 2022 (The last time such data was available through SEMCOG) compared to early on in the pandemic. According to SEMCOG data obtained from through the Census Bureau’s Small Business Pulse Survey, 4.3 percent of the 900,000 single-location businesses sample size closed during the week of April 9, 2022. The highest percent closure of this sample size was 9.2 percent during the week of November 20, 2020.

One way to help keep small businesses open is to shop local. This is the goal of Small Business Saturday, which occurs the Saturday after Thanksgiving. This is a campaign that American Express began in 2010 to help support small businesses in the midst of the Great Recession. It has certainly seen success over the years, with 51 million shoppers in the U.S. spending more than $23 billion at small businesses in 2021, according to American Express. However, the real takeaway here should be that for every $1 spent at a small business, it is estimated that $0.68 of those funds remain in the local economy (or, for every $100 spent, $68 remains in the local economy). This is something we should consider as part of our regular shopping habits, and not just one day a year.

Point in Time Count Shows Homelessness in SE Michigan Declining…Is that Really the Case?

November 16, 2022November 16, 2022 by Drawing Detroit | Leave a comment

Funding into social service resources are slowly dwindling, and the number of those without permanent shelter may be growing. Throughout Southeastern Michigan, we know that the demand for food at local food pantries/non-profit organizations is increasing (read our recent post about that here), and, so is the need for both temporary and permanent housing, according to area homeless shelters.

Over the last few years we have experienced a global pandemic, and in reaction the federal government distributed one-time funds and approved moratoriums on policies (evictions, water shut offs and more) to help boost social services and protect some of our most vulnerable populations. As the veil of the pandemic continues to lift so are many of protections put in place to help our vulnerable populations (or funding is declining).

According to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), an individual is defined as homeless if they lack a fixed, regular, and adequate nighttime residence and their primary nighttime residence is not meant for human habitation, such as under bridges or in vehicles.

The Point In Time Count is a count of people who are experiencing homelessness on one night in January. It provides a snapshot on the homeless population in an area, but it is by no means all encompassing. While the count is unable to account for every person experiencing homelessness, it also differs on the type of homeless population that is accounted for in each area. For the eight different areas examined in the chart below only three looked at the homeless population that was only sheltered on the night of the count (Detroit, Macomb and Oakland counties); three counted the population that was both sheltered and partially unsheltered (Wayne, Genesee and Washtenaw counties); two counted the homeless population that was both sheltered and fully unsheltered (Monroe and Livingston counties).

The data for the Point In Time Counts is collected by volunteers who collect information from emergency shelters, transitional housing and safe havens. There is also an attempt to collect data on the unsheltered population, but this can be more difficult as it generally involves volunteers traveling to places where people experiencing homelessness are expected to be (under bridges, encampments, etc).

The data below is the Point In Time Counts for the Southeastern Michigan; however data for St. Clair County could not be immediately found but data for Genesee County was included instead.

The City of Detroit has consistently had the highest documented population since at least 2015, according to the Point In Time Count. However, since 2015 the sheltered number of homeless has declined from 2,597 to 1,293 in 2021. None of the other areas in the region had homeless numbers as high as Detroit. In 2021 the area with the second highest documented number was the Pontiac/Royal Oak/Oakland County region with a sheltered only population count of 333. However, in 2021 it is believed the homeless population was closer to at least 1,228, according to data obtained from the Alliance for Housing Oakland County. According to the Point In Time Count data, the Oakland County homeless numbers have also declined.

Overall, according to the Point in Time Count data, each area examined in this blog post has had a decline in its homeless population between 2015 and 2021. Between 2020 and 2021 each area, except Macomb and Livingston counties, experienced a decline. Macomb County had a 79 person increase in its Point In Time County between 2015 and 2021 and Livingston County had a 30 person increase.

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Answering pertinent questions about Southeastern Michigan with statistics and maps

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