The Motor City and Automotive Industry still dictate state’s export economy

March 30, 2015 by drawingdadmin | Leave a comment

The Southeast Michigan region was the fifth largest export market in the United States in 2013 according to U.S. Census Bureau Statistics, with more than $53.9 billion in exports. In the same year, the state of Michigan reported $58.7 billion in exports, making the region (which includes Lapeer County in the Southeast Michigan) responsible for 91.8 percent of the state’s export economy. This post explores the role of exports in the regional economy and examines how trade connects the region to the world economy.

The map above shows the top 25 export recipients receiving goods originating in Michigan in 2014. In 2014, Michigan exports accounted for 3.4 percent of the national export total, by value. Among the top 25 export recipients are countries on six of seven continents. The strongest partnership is with neighboring Canada at more than $25,405 million. Fellow North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) partner Mexico follows Canada, but is well behind at $10,804 million.

Export statistics support Michigan’s case as a leader in automotive manufacturing, and this is driven by Detroit. Of the top 25 products being exported, 21 were automotive parts or vehicles; they comprised 45.4 percent of all exports from the state of Michigan in 2014, and grew by 2.9 percent, on average, between 2013 and 2014. Exported products that were not directly related to the automotive industry were aircraft parts, natural gas, iron ore and medicines. These products represented just 6.6 percent of all exports, by value, and saw an average growth of just 2.7 percent from 2013 to 2014.

In 2013 Wayne County produced the lion’s share of exports by value in the region ($31 billion), more than double the second-highest exporting county (Oakland at $14.5 billion), according to the International Trade Administration (ITA), a division of the U.S. Department of Commerce, using Census data from 2013.

The ITA also indicates that exports were not predominantly the Big 3 automakers exporting finished products, but small producers of automotive parts. In 2011, 7,215 different businesses exported out of metropolitan region, with 90 percent of exports coming from firms employing fewer than 500 employees, according to the ITA.

The next two maps look specifically at the Ports of Detroit (this includes two ports, Detroit Metropolitan Airport and the Port of Detroit – a container port). These maps show export partners by value and by weight for 2010, the last year for which the Census Bureau has port-specific data publicly available. When examined by value, Detroit sent a great deal of export value in 2014 ($USD) to Canada and Western Europe. No country outside these two regions received more than $25 million in exports from Detroit. Nations with robust automotive industries of their own – Germany, the United Kingdom and France – are among some of the largest recipients of Detroit products.

When examined by weight, a more broad trade geography emerges. Including this measure allows us to see more clearly where finished vehicles and iron ores are going. While Canada, Germany and the United Kingdom still lead among export recipients when considered by weight, South Africa and China emerge as significant trade partners.

The ITA indicates that since 2010 Michigan has seen a noteworthy increase in trade (by value) with Mexico, Saudi Arabia, China and the United Arab Emirates, which have overtaken many of the European nations to join Canada among the top five recipients of Detroit-area exports.

Manufacturing jobs decentralized from Detroit

March 23, 2015 by drawingdadmin | Leave a comment

In this post, we look at the data on manufacturing employment in the seven county region to see the variation in manufacturing jobs are throughout the Metro-Detroit Region. One thing that stands out is the lack of manufacturing trade-based jobs in Detroit in 2012.

In the map above we see that for every hundred people that lived in Detroit in 2012 there were only 2.5 manufacturing jobs.

By 2012 manufacturing jobs were decentralized from outside the city in Livingston County, which had the highest number of manufacturing jobs per person at 10 per 100 people. By contrast within Wayne County there were only 4.4 manufacturing jobs per 100 people. Both Macomb County and St. Clair County rank above that.

The GM Tech Center, TACOM (a U.S. Army manufacturing plant that makes items such as tanks for soldiers), and manufacturing plants for all of the Big Three, along with their suppliers are located in Warren in Macomb County. According to Crain’s Detroit, General Motors, Chrysler, and Ford are three of Macomb County’s largest employers. Also in that list is the U.S. government, which would include TACOM

The county with the lowest number of manufacturing jobs per 100 people was Washtenaw County; there were 3.5 manufacturing jobs per 100 people in 2012.

Where the previous map examined the manufacturing jobs per 100 people, this looks at the absolute number of manufacturing jobs in each municipality. It presents a very different perspective. We see, from this perspective, that Detroit was one of a few places in the region with more than 5,000 manufacturing jobs in 2012.

However, Detroit is not home to a majority of the manufacturing jobs in existence in the region. Most of the manufacturing plants of the Big Three are located outside of the City of Detroit. For example, Ford only has one manufacturing plant in Detroit, but has 12 in the Metro-Detroit suburbs. This is part of the reason we see the manufacturing hot spots such as Livonia, Wayne and Dearborn.

With GM, in addition to its headquarters being located in Detroit, there is one manufacturing plant that is located within the City and 12 in the suburbs, according to the GM website. For Chrysler, the ratio is much more equal; there are four Chrysler plants located in Detroit and five in the suburbs, according to the Chrysler website.

Property values increase throughout Wayne and neighboring counties

March 9, 2015 by drawingdadmin | Leave a comment

Preliminary numbers released by County Equalization Departments show that throughout Oakland, Macomb and Wayne counties property values increased between 2013 and 2014. According to state law, property assessments are equal to half a property’s market value. Overall, Oakland and Macomb counties saw assessed property values increase by upwards of 11 percent. In Wayne County though, overall assessed property values increased by about half that amount. The assessed property values in the city of Detroit decreased by 9.7 percent. The values are expected to be approved by the county legislative bodies in April.

As seen in the first map, the tri-county region experienced an increase in assessed property values. In the second map, we are able to see what communities experienced higher increases than others. In Oakland County, Madison Heights experienced the largest percentage increase in assessed property values at 15.95 percent, while in Macomb County, Sterling Heights had the largest percentage increase at 15.29 percent. Riverview in Wayne County had the largest percentage increase in the tri-county area at 20.95 percent.

Wayne County, however, was also the only county in the area where certain communities experienced a decrease in their property assessment values. River Rouge in Wayne County experienced the largest decline at 26.65 percent. Other communities in the county that experienced property assessment value declines were Inkster, Hamtramck, Detroit and Lincoln Park.

Values for New Haven, Romeo and the Village of Armada, all in Macomb County, were not available.

Unemployment numbers decreased with the holiday season

February 23, 2015February 24, 2015 by drawingdadmin | Leave a comment

From October 2014 to December 2014, the unemployment rate across the state and in the City of Detroit’s decreased (monthly);
The Purchasing Manager’s Index for Southeast Michigan increased from November 2014 to December 2014 (monthly);
Commodity Price Index decreased from November 2014 to December 2014 for Southeast Michigan (monthly);

Wayne, Macomb and Oakland counties experienced decreases in the number of monthly building permits pulled.

According to the most recent data provided by the Michigan Department of Technology, Management, and Budget, the unemployment rate for the state of Michigan decreased from 7.1 percent in October to 6.3 percent in December. During this same period, unemployment in the city of Detroit also decreased from 15.1 in October percent to 12.2 percent.

From November to December of 2014, the number of people employed in the city of Detroit increased by 1,775, leading to a total of 287,228 people employed in December.

The above chart shows the number of people employed in the auto manufacturing industry in the Detroit Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) (Detroit-Warren-Livonia) from December 2013 to December 2014. From July 2014 to November 2014 employment in this industry has increased by 9,000 from 91,600 to 100,600. However, from November to December, that number stagnated, remaining at 100,600. This was still the highest it had been over the last year.

The Purchasing Manger’s Index (PMI) is a composite index derived from five indicators of economic activity: new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories. A PMI above 50 means the economy is expanding.

According to the most recent data released on Southeast Michigan’s Purchasing Manager’s Index, the PMI for December 2014 was 64.2, an increase of 7.4 points from the prior month. As compared to December 2013, there has been an increase of 13.6 points.

The Commodity Price Index, which is a weighted average of selected commodity prices, was recorded at 54.2 points in December 2014, which was 7.6 points lower than the previous month and 1.9 points higher than December 2013.

The above charts show the number of residential building permits obtained each month in Oakland, Macomb, and Wayne counties from January 2013 until December 2014. These numbers are reported by local municipalities to the Southeastern Michigan Council of Governments and include single-family units, two-family units, attached condos, and multi-family units.

Oakland, Wayne, and Macomb counties all experienced a decrease in the number of building permits pulled from November 2014 to December 2014. These declines are largely seasonal, due to weather. Only Wayne County issued more permits in December 2014 than it did in December 2013. Oakland County issued 131 permits in December of 2014, a decrease of 10 compared to November 2014 and a decrease of 18 compared to December 2013. Macomb County issued 31 permits in December 2014, 47 fewer than in November 2014 and 52 fewer than in December 2013.

Wayne County issued nine fewer building permits in December than November of this year; in total 52 permits were pulled. This is seven more than the number pulled for the county in December 2013.

Median income provide different view of Southeastern Michigan

February 5, 2015March 18, 2015 by drawingdadmin | Leave a comment

Various blog posts drawing attention to the income disparities that exist throughout Southeastern Michigan have appeared on Drawing Detroit. This particular post though is more visual in its depiction of income throughout the region at the county and municipal levels. In particular, this post presents the 2013 median household income for the seven counties in the region, along with the municipalities in the tri-county region, in a cartogram form.

A cartogram is a geographic representation method that alters the area and shape of locations, while still preserving their spatial relationships, in order to demonstrate the relative relationship of a data feature. This method allows the cartographer to change the way the map is experienced visually, by applying weight to data, while also maintaining geographic relationships.

Of the maps presented in this post, the above map is the least skewed in terms of income in relation to the size of the counties. Livingston County, which had the highest median household income in 2013 at $72,359, appears only slightly larger than its size on a normal scale. There is also a noticeable difference in the size of Wayne County, which had a median household income of $41,138 in 2013. This was the lowest median household income of all the seven counties.

The above two maps truly highlight the income disparities in the tri-county region, particularly in Wayne County. In both maps, the Grosse Pointes stand out as having median household incomes above $80,001. Grosse Pointe Woods ($105,071) and Grosse Pointe Farms ($107,152) had the highest incomes in that area.

In looking at both maps we see that Detroit simply serves as a low-income small connector between wealthy municipalities like the Grosse Pointes and the Plymouth area. Because the size of a municipality in these maps is determined by relative median household income and not geographic size, Detroit, which is the largest city by population in the state of Michigan, does not draw the visual attention it typically would. It has been dramatically impacted by its low median household income of $26,325 in 2013.

Another notable municipality with a high median household income is Lake Angelus in Oakland County. Lake Angelus is only 1.6 square miles but in the above map we see that its median household income makes it larger (in the cartogram) than cities such as Pontiac, Detroit, Warren and Mount Clemens. Lake Angelus had a median household income of $163,393 in 2013.

Other municipalities whose size appears larger in these maps because of their median household income were: Bloomfield Hills ($147,969), Novi Township ($108,125), Plymouth Township ($86,217), Canton ($81,667), Northville Township ($97,161), Grosse Ile ($88,238), and Orchard Lake ($137,321).

The above cartogram looks at median household income in Detroit by Census Tract in 2013. Areas making less than $20,000 greatly outnumber those making $80,000 or more. Riverview, Midtown, Rosedale Park and Indian Village swell greatly due to their high median income, while areas like Palmer Park and Grandmont-Rosedale also increase in size at the expense of areas like Brightmoor, Briggs, Core City and Poletown.

By viewing a municipality’s size in relation to the median household income we are able to gain a better understanding of where higher household incomes are located in Southeastern Michigan. These maps show that much of the wealth in the region is located in the northeastern and northwestern portions of Wayne County and throughout Oakland County.

More affluent school districts in Southeastern Michigan have higher immunization waiver rates

January 26, 2015February 24, 2015 by drawingdadmin | Leave a comment

In recent weeks news has broken about outbreaks of diseases many have thought were eradicated. From a mumps outbreak in the NHL to a measles outbreak at Disney World, in which the pattern includes seven different states with a whooping cough outbreaks, and a measles outbreak much closer to home in Grand Traverse and Leelanau counties- we are seeing that these diseases are indeed making a comeback, and many believe it is because of the growing number of children not being immunized.

While there have been no such outbreaks as mentioned above, immunization rates do vary in Southeastern Michigan, with some school districts having rates lower than the minimum thresholds needed to prevent the spread of disease. This is problematic, as low immunization rates threaten herd immunity and puts both vaccinated and non-vaccinated individuals at risk.

What is herd immunity?

The phrase “herd immunity” refers to protecting a community from disease by having a critical mass of its population immunized. Rather than just protecting the person vaccinated, vaccines can protect the entire community by breaking the chain of an infection’s transmission. However, for this to be successful, a certain number of people have to be vaccinated.

Epidemiologists have determined a basic threshold for infectious disease transmission by calculating both a “basic reproduction number” (R0), which represents how many people in an unprotected population one infected person can pass the disease along to – basically, a single person with mumps can pass it along to between 4 and 7 non-vaccinated people, while a single person with the measles could pass it along to between 12 and 18. The higher this R0 value is, the higher the percentage of vaccinated people in the population has to be, in order to prevent the spread of these illnesses. Therefore, in order to prevent an outbreak of measles, for instance, in a school district, 89-94% of students would have to be immunized.

Photo credit © Tangled Bank Studios; data from Epidemiologic Reviews, 1993.

Furthermore, it is important for the population to be immunized in order to protect the health of those who cannot be vaccinated, such as infants and people with weakened immune systems. When large chunks of the community are not protected against these diseases, it is these groups of people whose health with be the most affected.

What are the immunization rates in Southeast Michigan schools?

Rates vary from well above minimum threshold numbers for even the most contagious diseases (Hazel Park and Southfield schools both have rates of 98%) to far below the threshold for any sort of protection (Madison Public Schools has the lowest, at only 70% vaccinated). However, it is important to note that not all school districts track vaccination rates uniformly – Inkster Public Schools, for instance, is reporting a 100% vaccination rate, but that’s based on an interview with a very small sample of students and may not be accurate.

Note: Data unavailable for Willow Run Schools (white area), as it was absorbed into Ypsilanti Schools this year.

One interesting trend present in the map is how more affluent districts seem to have lower vaccination rates than their less affluent counterparts, suggesting that non-vaccination is more of a trend in middle- to upper-income communities (although this certainly does not hold true for all). One important fact about herd immunity is that being vaccinated yourself (or vaccinating your children) matters less when the population isn’t immunized. For example, an unvaccinated student in Hazel Park would have less of a chance of catching a vaccine-preventable illness than a vaccinated student in neighboring Madison Heights, since it would be exceedingly difficult for disease to spread in a population that is nearly universally protected against it.

What is Michigan doing to boost vaccination rates?

As of January 1, 2015, the Michigan Department of Community Health changed their rules on obtaining an exemption waiver for vaccinations. Starting this year, parents will still have the right to refuse inoculations, but first they have to be educated by a local health worker about vaccines and the diseases they are intended to prevent, and sign a universal state form that includes a statement of acknowledgement that they understand they may be putting their own children and others at risk by refusing shots.

Currently, Michigan is one of 20 states that allow such an exemption. With this being the case, it was still easier to obtain a waiver here than it is elsewhere – for instance, Arkansas and Minnesota require a waiver form to be notarized, and Vermont requires parents who opt out to renew their waiver each year, instead of just for kindergarten, sixth grade, and in the event of a school transfer.

There is a definite correlation between the ease of getting an exemption waiver for vaccinations and the percentage of students who obtain waivers, as one study (Blank, Caplan & Constable, 2013) found that states with an easier process had waiver rates twice as high as those with more complicated ones. Therefore, by tightening these restrictions, Michigan’s vaccination waiver rates may decrease, and vaccination rates may increase.

Sources

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/body/herd-immunity.html
http://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/2014/12/vaccination_rule_change_propos.html
Blank, N.R., Caplan, A.R. & Constable, C. (2013) Excempting schoolchildren from immunizations: States with few barriers had highest rates of nonmedical exemptions. Health Affairs 32(7): 1282-1290. http://content.healthaffairs.org/content/32/7/1282.abstract

NYT: Lower wage earners hit the hardest by local, state taxes

January 21, 2015February 24, 2015 by drawingdadmin | Leave a comment

An article recently released by the New York Times shed light on a study produced by the Institute of Taxation and Economic Policy that shows how lower wage earners pay a large percentage of their income in local and state taxes than the middle fifth and 1 percent of Americans.

In Michigan, according to the study, the share of a family income of non-elderly taxpayers paid in state and local taxes was 5.1 percent. The lowest 20 percent paid 9.2 percent of their family income in state and local taxes, the second lowest 20 percent paid 9.4 and the middle lowest paid 9.2 percent. To learn more about who pays what in state and local taxes in Michigan click here. For the whole report click here.

Macomb County leads in number of residential building permits obtained in October

December 22, 2014February 24, 2015 by drawingdadmin | Leave a comment

From September 2014 to October 2014, the unemployment rate across the state and in the City of Detroit’s increased (monthly);
The Purchasing Manager’s Index for Southeast Michigan increased from October 2014 to November 2014 (monthly);
Commodity Price Index decreased from October 2014 to November 2014 for Southeast Michigan (monthly);
Macomb and Oakland counties experienced increased in the number of monthly building permits pulled; Wayne County experienced a decrease.
Standard and Poor’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the Detroit Metropolitan Statistical Area shows home prices have been decreasing since May.

According to the most recent data provided by the Michigan Department of Technology, Management, and Budget, the unemployment rate for the state of Michigan increased from 6.7 percent in September to 7.1 percent in October. During this same period, unemployment in the City of Detroit increased from 14.9 to 15.1 percent. Detroit’s unemployment rate has been increasing since August 2014; at that time it was 14.6 percent.

From September to October of 2014, the number of people employed in the City of Detroit increased by 2,557, leading to a total of 287,575 people employed in October.

The above chart shows the number of people employed in the auto manufacturing industry in the Detroit Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) (Detroit-Warren-Livonia) from October 2013 to October 2014. Since July 2014, employment in this industry has increased by 5,400 to 97,000 in October 2014.

According to the most recent data released on Southeast Michigan’s Purchasing Manager’s Index, the PMI for November was 56.8, an increase of 1.9 points from the prior month, but also a decrease of 1.5 points from this time last year.

The Commodity Price Index, which is a weighted average of selected commodity prices, was recorded at 61.8 points in November, which was 7.4 points lower than the previous month and 7.4 points higher than a year ago.

The above charts show the number of residential building permits obtained each month in Oakland, Macomb, and Wayne counties from January 2013 until October 2014. These numbers are reported by local municipalities to the Southeastern Michigan Council of Governments and include single-family units, two-family units, attached condos, and multi-family units.

Oakland and Macomb counties experienced increases in the number of building permits pulled from September 2014 to October 2014. Oakland County issued 173 permits in October, an increase of 39 compared to September, but a decrease of 151 compared to October 2013.

Macomb County issued 219 permits in October 2014, an increase of 119 compared to September 2014 and 65 more permits than it issued in October 2013. Compared to September 2014 in which they pulled 62 permits, Wayne County pulled seven less building permits in October of this year (55). This is three more than the number pulled for the county in October 2013.

The above charts show the Standard and Poor’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the Detroit Metropolitan Statistical Area. The index includes the price for homes that have sold but does not include the price of new home construction, condos, or homes that have been remodeled.

According to the index, the average price of single-family dwellings sold in Metro Detroit was $95,070 in September 2014. This was an increase of approximately $5,020 from the average price in September 2013. Since May, prices have decreased by $3,820.

Highland Park has lowest percent of owner occupied housing

December 8, 2014February 24, 2015 by drawingdadmin | Leave a comment

According to the Census Bureau, a housing unit is owner-occupied if the owner or co-owner lives in the unit, even if it is mortgaged or not fully paid for. In the seven county Southeastern Michigan region in 2012, the mean owner-occupied percentage was 74.1 percent. At that time, the counties in the region with a percentage of owner occupied homes above the region’s total average were: Livingston, Macomb, Monroe and St. Clair counties. Livingston County had the highest percentage at 85.9 percent; this was also the only county where the percentage of owner-occupied homes was above 80 percent.

In the seven county region, Washtenaw County, which is home to the University of Michigan, had the lowest percentage of owner-occupied homes. Uof M is the largest university in the region, enrolling about 47,000 students on an annual basis. With such a large student population, it can be argued that this contributes to the city of Ann Arbor’s low owner-occupied percentage, which was 45.5 percent in 2012. Also located in Washtenaw County is the charter township of Ypsilanti, which houses Eastern Michigan University and has a lower income population residing within the township. Both these attributes likely play a role in the owner occupied housing percentage of 58.9 percent in Ypsilanti.

Wayne County had the second lowest percentage at 65.6 percent.

The above map shows the percentage of owner-occupied housing in the tri-county region in 2012. The lower income communities, such as Detroit and the cities of Mount Clemens and Pontiac, were below the regional mean for owner occupied percentage. In contrast, the wealthier communities (like Grosse Ile, Livonia and the Grosse Pointes) and the more rural communities (like the northern half of Macomb County and the southwest portion of Wayne County) have a much higher percentage of owner occupied housing.

To see the median income of communities throughout the Southeast Michigan click here.

Note that in the downtown area of Detroit, primarily along Woodward Avenue, there is a very low owner occupied housing percentage, below 25 percent. This is because there are dozens of rental housing units along, and in the vicinity of Woodward Avenue, in which owners of the units are more likely to lease out the properties. In the far north of the city, near Palmer Park, an area where the owner occupied housing percentage is below 25 percent appears to be mainly the actual park and cemetery.

Detroit’s unemployment still below July’s high

November 3, 2014February 24, 2015 by drawingdadmin | Leave a comment

From August 2014 to September 2014, the unemployment rate across the state remained stagnant while the City of Detroit’s increased (monthly);
The Purchasing Manager’s Index for Southeast Michigan increased from August 2014 to September 2014 (monthly);
Commodity Price Index decreased from August 2014 to September 2014 for Southeast Michigan (monthly);
Wayne, Oakland, and Macomb counties all experienced decreases in the number of monthly building permits pulled.

According to the most recent data provided by the Michigan Department of Technology, Management and Budget, from August to September the unemployment rate for the state of Michigan remained steady at 6.7 percent. The city of Detroit a experienced slight unemployment rate increase — from 14.4 percent in August to 14.6 percent in September. The unemployment rate in Detroit has decreased 2 points since September of 2013.

From August to September the number of people employed in the City of Detroit decreased by about 109, leading to a total of to 285,018 people employed.

The above chart shows the number of people employed in the auto manufacturing industry in the Detroit Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) (Detroit-Warren-Livonia) from September 2013 to September 2014. During the period under consideration, the highest employment levels in the auto manufacturing and auto parts manufacturing industries occurred in June 2014, when there were 99,100 people employed in the Detroit MSA. That number dropped by 3,700 people to a total of 95,400 people employed in September; however, this is also an increase of 3,800 from the month of July.

According to the most recent data released on Southeast Michigan’s Purchasing Manager’s Index, the PMI for September was 59.4, a positive increase of 4.6 points from the prior month and a decrease of .5 points from last year at this time.

The Commodity Price Index, which is a weighted average of selected commodity prices, was recorded at 55.7 points in September, which was 7.4 points lower than the previous month and 1.5 points higher than a year ago.

The above charts show the number of residential building permits obtained each month in Wayne, Oakland, and Macomb counties from January 2013 until September 2014. These numbers are reported by local municipalities to the Southeastern Michigan Council of Governments and include single-family units, two-family units, attached condos, and multi-family units.

Two of the three counties experienced a decrease in the number of building permits pulled from August 2014 to September 2014. Oakland experienced a decrease 51 building permits from August to September while Macomb County experienced a decrease of 48 and Wayne County pulled the same number of building permits in September of this year as it did last year, 54.

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Answering pertinent questions about Southeastern Michigan with statistics and maps

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