Author Archives: Drawing Detroit

Synthetic Opioid Overdose Deaths in Michigan Continue to Rise, Outpace Other Opioid Related Deaths

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Michigan’s opioid epidemic is no secret, and it is not just prescription pills that are contributing to the rise in overdoses. Opioids include prescription pain relievers such as oxycodone (Oxycontin), hydrocodone (Vicodin), codeine, morphine, fentanyl, methadone, and the illegal drug heroin. However, pain killers that are not prescribed or are used outside of the prescription are considered illegal. Furthermore, pain killers such as fentanyl are being illegally manufactured and distributed at an increasing rate. As the first chart below shows, the number of overdose deaths for all opioids has increased since 2000, but synthetic opioid overdose deaths have risen the most over the last several years, according to data from the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services.

In 2000 there were 17 synthetic opioid overdose deaths (not including methadone) in the State of Michigan. Comparably there were 60 prescription opioid overdose deaths in Michigan in 2000 and 89 heroin overdose deaths. In 2021 there were 2,287 synthetic opioid overdose deaths, 512 prescription opioid overdose deaths and 145 heroin overdose deaths. In Michigan, synthetic opioid overdose deaths increased the most between 2014 and 2015 and 2019 and 2020. Between 2014 and 2015 synthetic opioid overdose deaths increased by 465 deaths, from 175 overdose deaths to 465 overdose deaths. Between 2019 and 2020 opioid overdose deaths increased by 466, from 1,445 to 1,911. Although heroin and prescription overdose deaths have also increased since 2000, the number of overdose deaths for both categories have not grown by the amounts that synthetic opioid overdoses have, nor have they reached (individually) as high an overdose death number as synthetic opioid overdose deaths.

The yellow line in the chart represents the total number of opioid overdose deaths between 2000 and 2021, as reported by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services. The yellow line often falls below the total number of opioid overdose deaths calculated when combining prescription and synthetic opioids and heroin. According to the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services, the summing of categories will not always result in more than the number of all opioid drug overdoses and the categories of death are not exclusive as deaths might involve more than one drug.

It is also important to note that prescription overdoses includes both prescription opioid pain relievers (e.g., hydrocodone, oxycodone, and morphine) and opioids used to treat addiction (e.g., methadone)

The first chart shows the sheer number of opioid overdose deaths by category, and the chart below shows the rate of opioid overdoses by category, again highlighting the increase in synthetic opioid overdoses. The rates below are calculated per 100,000 people. Prescription opioids regularly had the highest overdose mortality rate up until 2015. In 2015 the overdose mortality rate for prescription opioids was 4.5 overdoses per 100,000 people and for synthetic opioids the rate was 4.7. From there, the overdose rate for synthetic opioids grew to a rate of 23.9 overdose deaths per 100,000 in 2021. Prescription opioid overdose rates and heroin overdose rates also grew for a few years beyond 2015, both peaking after then. The prescription opioid overdose rate peaked in 2016 at 7.7 and the heroin overdose rate peaked at a rate of 8.2 overdoses per 100,000 in 2017. Overdose rates for prescription opioid overdoses and heroin overdoses have decreased since then.

The data clearly shows opioid overdoses continue to increase in Michigan, and synthetic opioid (such as fentanyl) overdoses are playing a large role in that. An obvious question may be, why fentanyl? Well, fentanyl is a highly potent opioid that only requires people to ingest a tiny amount to overdose.

According to Rutgers University, in many areas, fentanyl has nearly completely replaced heroin and can be found in many counterfeit prescription opioid and benzodiazepine pills bought on the street. Methamphetamine and cocaine may also contain undeclared fentanyl.

As shown, Michigan is not immune to its population gaining access to this highly dangerous drug. And while it is still found on the streets, law enforcement agents are working to stop production and distribution. According to the US Department of Justice, more than 65 kilograms of fentanyl powder and 88,000 fentanyl laced pills were seized by federal agents during May 23 and Sept. 8, 2022. The USDOJ said this was enough to provide 4.7 million deadly dosages.

According to the USDOJ,  fentanyl is 50 times more potent than heroin. Just two milligrams of fentanyl, or the amount that could fit on the tip of a pencil, is considered a potentially lethal dose.

The risk of overdose remains high with opioid use, as do other negative consequences from using opioids. So, while law enforcement officials work to eliminate illegal production, distribution and use of opioids there are also organizations working to help those with an opioid addiction. As we have noted throughout this series, to end the opioid epidemic we need a multi-faceted approach and treating addiction is part of that approach. In our next post we will discuss these programs and their impacts.

Young Females, Black Community Impacted by Opioid Use, Overdose

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We know, according to the new Michigan Substance Use Vulnerability Index (MI-SUVI), that St. Clair and Wayne counties are the most vulnerable when it comes to substance use in Southeastern Michigan. Additional data shows that it isn’t just residents of those counties who are vulnerable to opioid use, and related harm, though. Rather the black community and the young female population appear to be amongst the most vulnerable populations when it comes to opioid use, death and related Emergency Department visits.

In general, we know that the number of opioid related deaths are increasing across the State of Michigan.  When examining just the number of opioid related deaths in Southeastern Michigan we also know that Wayne County has the highest number of such deaths, in part due to it having the highest population in the state. However, the chart below shows that in recent years only Wayne and Macomb counties have been experiencing noticeable increases in the number of opioid related deaths. In 2020, Wayne County recorded 706 opioid related deaths and Macomb County reported 269; these are increases from the 660 opioid related deaths Wayne County recorded in 2019 and the 215 Macomb County recorded.  Monroe County also experienced an increase in the number of opioid related deaths between 2019 and 2020.

It should be noted that while the state has some data for opioid related deaths in 2021 it was not accessible at the county level. Additionally, data for opioid related deaths in Oakland County was not available for the year 2018 and beyond; this data was suppressed according to the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services.

As the data below shows, males in Michigan have regularly had a higher number of opioid related deaths as compared to women. In 2021 there were 1,528 opioid related deaths amongst Michigan males and 672 amongst Michigan females. (See the chart below.) In 2000, when the data started to be tracked, there were 98 and 25 opioid deaths, respectively. While the number of opioid related overdose deaths for both males and females has been growing, officials are also zeroing on data related to a specific age group of females.

According to the State of Michigan, in 2021, most overdose Emergency Departments visits among young women and girls were intentional and related to self-harm. According to the State, there were 602 more intentional overdose Emergency Department visits among females between the ages of 11-24 years old than in 2020. This was a 30 percent increase. These data further indicate that only 2 percent of that overdose Emergency Departments visits were related to opioids (40% Non-opioid analgesics, antirheumatics, and antipyretics, 25% were related to anti-depressants and 3% were related to psycho-stimulants).

These data indicate how important mental health is in substance use and addiction. That are many factors that impact a person’s mental health, but this recent study by the State highlights how young women are just one group with an increased risk of substance use and its impacts.

The data below shows the number of opioid related deaths for Black males and females and White males and females to further show the details of opioid death trends. While the raw numbers highlight that White Males have always had the highest number of opioid related deaths (1,199 in 2021), followed by White females (542 in 2021), the number of opioid related deaths in the Black male community are rapidly increasing.

In 2000 there were 32 opioid related deaths in the Black male community and by 2021 that increased to 492. The Black female community had 19 reported opioid related deaths in 2000 and by 2021 that increased to 216. The data clearly shows an increase, but we must also be considered that much of this may be related to measurement or aggregation of the data.

According to the Michigan Overdose Data to Action Dashboard, between August 2021 to July 2022 759 Black Michiganders died from an opioid overdose. According to the National Institute on Drug Abuse, the trend we are seeing in Michigan of increased opioid related deaths is also a national trend. According to the institute, Black individuals in four U.S. states(New York, Massachusetts, Kentucky, Ohio) experienced a 38 percent increase in the rate of opioid overdose deaths between 2018 to 2019. Many of these overdoses were driven by heroin and fentanyl, according to the National Institute on Drug Abuse.
While these numbers continue to increase, the focus on the addressing the forces behind these overdose deaths, including the harm reduction from the drugs themselves and the breakdown of societal structures that contribute to them, are increasing. According to NIDA Director Nora D. Volkow, M.D.,  ”systemic racism fuels the opioid crisis, just as it contributes mightily to other areas of health disparities and inequity, especially for Black people.”
As we have briefly touched on, the way to tackle the opioid epidemic in our state, and our country, is to create multi-faceted policies and programs that directly address specific communities. There is no blanket approach to tackling the opioid epidemic, but as we will show in our next post, several programs in Michigan are making headway.

Michigan’s Substance Use Vulnerability Index Highlights Wayne County as one of State’s Most Vulnerable

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In Southeast Michigan, St. Clair and Wayne counties are the most vulnerable when it comes to substance use, according to the Michigan Substance Use Vulnerability Index (MI-SUVI). This index provides a score, balancing the eight factors listed below:

  • Overdose death rate
  • Nonfatal overdose emergency department visit rate
  • Opioid prescribing rate
  • Drug-related arrest rate
  • Percent of the population within a 30-minute drive to a treatment center
  • Percent of the population within a 15-drive drive to a syringe service program
  • Buprenorphine prescribing rate
  • And the Social Vulnerability Index (This is the Centers for Disease Control’s own measure that looks at social detriments to health, like technology access and healthcare access. We explored this in a previous post.)

The scores above are separated into three categories (Burden Rank, Resource Rank and Social Vulnerability Rank), each receiving a score in and of itself. Once the factors and rankings are determined, a final score is then provided to determine the vulnerability of an area to substance use. The factors listed below all use data from 2020, 2021 or an average of 2016-2020.

The information described above is part of the State of Michigan’s new Overdose data to Action Dashboard, which digs deep into the data above, serving as resource to stakeholders across the state who are working to address substance use disorders.

In this post we not only show the percentile rank of MI-SUVI scores for each of the seven counties in the region, highlighting which ones have higher or low index scores, but also dig deeper into the factors behind each score.

As noted, Wayne and St. Clair counties had the highest MI-SUVI index percentile ranks in the region at 97.6 percent and 59 percent, respectively. Wayne County not only had the highest index in the region, but the second-highest in the state (Oscoda County had the highest index in the state at 98.8 percent). In other words, Oscoda County was the most vulnerable county when it came to substance use and Wayne County was the second most vulnerable county.

What contributed to such a high score? Well, as shown through several data points below, Wayne County had the highest fatal and nonfatal overdose rates in the region in 2020 and is in the middle-third of opioid prescriptions issued in a county statewide. Wayne County does provide a greater amount of access to resources that some counties throughout the state and region, but even so, its burden rank weighs heavily on the county’s scoring.

Livingston County had the lowest Michigan Substance Use Vulnerability Index percentile rank at 1.2 percent. Overall, Livingston County ranked 83rd on the MI-SUVI index—there are 83 counties in Michigan. This ranking is because of its low burden and social vulnerability index rankings and its average resource ranking.

Between 2016 and 2020 the five-year average for the number of all fatal overdoses in Wayne County was 42.1 per 100,000 people, according to the Michigan Opioid Data to Action Dashboard.  Wayne County had the second highest fatal overdose rate in the state; Genesee County had the highest rate at 42.9. Regionally, Macomb County had the second highest fatal overdose rate at 37.3 per 100,000.

Oakland County had the lowest five-year average fatal overdose rate per 100,000 people at 13.4.

Regionally, Wayne County also had the highest non-fatal overdose emergency room visit rate per 100,000 people at 427.8. This rate ranked fourth in the state. The drug overdoses counted for this emergency room visit category represents all drug overdoses—not just opioid overdoses. St. Clair County had the second highest non-fatal overdose emergency room visit rate per 100,000 people at 365.8. Livingston County had the lowest rate at 170.3.

The rates for this data set are based on a three-year average between 2016-2020.

For the opioid prescription rate per 100,000 people, it was not Wayne County that had the highest rate regionally, but rather St. Clair County. In 2020, according to data from the Michigan Overdose Data to Action Dashboard, St. Clair County had an opioid prescription rate of 59,685.5. St. Clair County had the 15th highest opioid prescription rate in the state. Wayne County had an opioid prescription rate of 42,580.2 per 100,000 people, which was the 52nd highest rate in the state.

Regionally and statewide, Washtenaw County had the lowest opioid prescribing rate of 19,420.8.

The opioid prescription rate is based on the number of prescription opioid units dispensed to treat pain.

The percent of the population within a 15-minute drive of a Syringe Service Program measure is one of the factors in the MI-SUVI rate because it is a harm reduction indicator. This indicator represents the number of Syringe Service Programs funded by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services. These programs are considered a form of harm reduction because they offer sterile injection equipment and provide a linkage to substance use disorder treatment.

Washtenaw County had the highest percentage of the population that lived within a 15-minute drive of a Syringe Service Program in Michigan at 82.9 percent. Wayne County had the second highest percentage of the population within a 15-minute drive of a Syringe Service Program  at 81.7 percent.

Livingston County had the lowest percentage regionally with 0.5 percent of the population being with a 15-minute drive to a Syringe Service Program. While this percentage was much lower than the other counties’, Livingston County had the 53rd highest percentage of the population within a 15-minute drive to a program.

Buprenorphine is a medication, approved by the Food and Drug Administration, to treat opioid use disorder. Access to this prescription is also viewed as a harm reduction indicator, which is why it is one of the factors in determining the MI-SUVI rate of a county.

In Southeast Michigan, Monroe County had the highest Buprenorphine prescription unit rate per 1,000 people in 2020 at 3,950.5, followed by St. Clair County with a rate of 2,978.5. Higher rates of Buprenorphine are viewed as favorable in the calculating the MI-SUVI rate because the drug aims to treat addiction. Oakland County had the lowest Buprenorphine prescription rate at 1,485.6 per 1,000 people.

As with the opioid prescription rate, the Buprenorphine rate is based on the prescription units.

The data discussed above provides a fair amount of insight into the ever-growing concerns and consequences of opioid addiction across Southeast Michigan and the state. And while we have a better understanding of what counties are more vulnerable to the impacts of this disease than others, there is still much more to be known. Over the next several weeks we will further examine the hard reduction programs in place—what services they offer, what their impacts are and how they are growing in numbers. We will also dig deeper into who is most impacted by opioid addiction and what factors impact that. And finally, we will discuss the National Opioid Lawsuit and its impact on Michigan and its communities.

Just as with addiction itself, understanding the intricacies of the data presented by the State is vital in establishing a comprehensive and effective plan to reduce the harm, and existence itself, of opioid addiction.

Rate of Alcohol-Induced Deaths Increasing in Southeast Michigan; White Males Have Highest Rates

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Statewide, across genders and across racial groups, the rate of alcohol-induced deaths is increasing, according to the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services. This trend is also true for majority of the counties in Southeast Michigan, with the exception of two. Why alcohol-induced deaths are increasing remains unknown, but the data does show that Michigan men had higher rates of alcohol-induced death than women, and White Michiganders have had higher alcohol-induced death rates over the last decade, as compared to their Black counterparts.

Digging further into the data, we know that the rate of alcohol-induced deaths for men in Michigan in 2000 was 10.6 deaths per 100,000 people; by 2021 that increased to 21.7 deaths per 100,000 people. The largest increase for male alcohol-induced deaths took place between 2018 and 2021. Nationally, the New York Times sites a sharp increase in alcohol-related deaths for women. However, as data from the Michigan Department of Health and Human Service shows, while the trend has been steadily increasing since 2000 (rates increased from 3.3 per 100,000 people to 8.8 per 100,000 people), the males in Michigan have experienced the sharpest increase.

The trends amongst the White and Black populations in Michigan is not as straightforward. As noted, the White population in Michigan had the highest alcohol-induced death rate in 2021 at 15.5 deaths per 100,000 people. Since 2000 the alcohol-induced death rate amongst the White population in Michigan steadily increased from 6.3 alcohol-induced deaths per 100,000 people to 15.5. The alcohol-induced death for the Black population has not been as linear. Between 2000 and 2007 the alcohol-induced death rate decreased from 10.5 alcohol-induced deaths per 100,000 to 5.2. Then, between 2007 and 2018, there were both increases and decreases in the alcohol-induced death rates for the Black population, with the 2018 rate being reported at 6.6. Since 2018, the alcohol-induced death rate for the Black population increased from 6.6 to 14.4 in 2021.

Up until 2010, according to the data, Black males had the highest alcohol-induced death rate among Black males and females and White males and females. But, beginning in 2010 and through 2021, White men had the highest rate at 22.2 per 100,000 people in 2021. When examining the female population, it was often a trade-off from year-to-year whether it was the Black or White female population with the highest alcohol-induced death rate. In 2021, Black women had the highest rate at 9.4 deaths per 100,000 people.

When digging into the more local data, it is St. Clair County that regularly had the highest alcohol-induced death rate since at least 2007, despite Livingston County having the highest local rate in 2021. In 2021, the alcohol-induced death rate for Livingston County was 18.2 alcohol-induced deaths per 100,000 people. In 2018, Livingston County had an alcohol-induced death rate of 3.3 and by 2021 it had spiked to 18.2.

St. Clair County had the second-highest rate at 16.9. Wayne County, with Detroit data removed, had the lowest alcohol-induced death rate at 12; Detroit’s alcohol-induced death rate in 2021 was 13.3.

Despite St. Clair County regularly having the highest alcohol-induced death rate over the last decade, there was a decrease between 2020 and 2021. Monroe County also experienced a decrease in the alcohol-induced death rate between 2020 and 2021.

Overall, the trend of alcohol induced death rates increasing is evident. Exact reasons for it remain unknown, but publications touch on mental health, the pandemic and genetics as reasons. While trying to better understand the “why,” policies can also be put in place to help curb increasing rates. Some policy recommendations from the American Public Health Association include increasing alcohol taxes at the federal, state and local levels, limiting the number of stores that can sell alcohol in a community (and limiting clustering of such stores), lowering the Blood Alcohol Content level for drunk driving, increasing public awareness campaigns (similar to what has been done in the tobacco industry).  Strategies need to simultaneously occur at the individual-community-population level to ensure a holistic approach that is long-term and impactful.

Metro-Detroit Economic Indicators: Home Prices Dropping, Personal Debt Increasing

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Unemployment rates for both the State of Michigan and the City of Detroit hit record lows in the second quarter of 2022.

In December of 2022 the unemployment rate for the State of Michigan was 4.3, which is inline with the State’s unemployment rate since March of 2022. In that time frame the unemployment rate for the state has only slightly fluctuated between 4.4 and 4.1 percent. For the City of Detroit, the unemployment rate for November of 2022 (December data was not yet available) was 6.4 percent.

The unemployment rate for Detroit has been regularly declining since May of 2022 when the rate was reported at 10.5 percent. In November of 2021, the unemployment rate for Detroit spike to 8.4 percent, down from the 10 percent the previous month.

The chart below provides a more detailed look at unemployment rates throughout Southeast Michigan, both currently and a year ago. According to the data, Monroe and Washtenaw counties both had higher unemployment rates in November of 2022 than in November of 2021. For Monroe County there was only a 0.1 percent increase in the unemployment rate, with it being reported at 3.9 percent in 2021 and 4 percent in 2022. For Washtenaw County there was a 0.3 percent increase between November of 2021 and 2022. In 2022 Washtenaw County had the third highest unemployment rate in the region, falling only behind Monroe and Wayne counties. The unemployment rate for Wayne County in November of 2022 was 3.7 percent, which was the below the 5.7 percent unemployment rate the county reported in

Livingston County continued to have the lowest unemployment rate in the region at 2.1 percent in November of 2022, followed by Oakland County with an unemployment rate of 2.3 percent.

The charts below show the percent changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on a month-to-month basis and a year-to-year basis for each month in years 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022 in the Midwest Region. The CPI is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food, energy, housing and medical care. It is calculated by taking price changes for each item in the predetermined group of goods and averaging them.

The first  chart below highlights how the CPI changed on a month-to-month basis between 2019 and 2022. Currently in 2022, the region’s prices were down 0.5 percent in the month of December. The highlights for the change include:

•Food prices increased 0.3 percent for the month of December. Prices for food at home (groceries) and away from home (restaurants) both increased 0.3 percent.
•The energy index decreased 7.2 percent in December largely due to a 15.9 percent decrease in gasoline; prices for natural gas service increased 2.8 percent though and electricity increase 1.5 percent
•There were decreases in  the cost for used cars and trucks (-2.4 percent), apparel (-1.8 percent), public transportation, and medical care (-0.3 percent).

When examining the second chart, which shows how prices changed on a year-to-year basis,  we see how prices remain higher than 2019 and 2020 but that there was a decline in the CPI for the month of December between 2021 and 2022.

In December of 2022 the CPI was reported to be 6 percent above what it was the year prior. Contributing factors to the continued increase in the CPI include

•Food prices increasing 11.4 percent over the last year, with at home food prices increasing 13 percent
•Energy prices increasing 5.3 percent over the last year, with the largest contributor being natural gas (16 percent price increase)
•Rent prices increasing 7 percent
•Recreation prices increasing 6.8 percent
•The cost of used cars and trucks decreasing 9.1 percent.

While home prices in Metro-Detroit continue to increase from one month to the next, the rate at which they are increasing is beginning to taper off. According to the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, the average price of single-family dwellings sold was $168,790 in October of 2022, a decrease of $450 for the average price of a home in September of 2022. This is the first there has been a decrease in the average home price in Metro Detroit since August of 2019. At that time home prices decreased $129,220 to $127,290. Since then though, the average price of a home continued to increase until October of 2022.

While the month-to-month trend of prices increasing broke, a look at data from year’s prior is a reminder just how much the average price of a home has increased. Between October of 2022 and 2021 the average price increased $9,200 and between October of 2022 and 2014 the price increased $70,570.

Debt for Michigan residents continues to grow, according to recent reports from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. According to the data, the Michigan Per Capita Debt Balance came in at $44,370 at the end of the third quarter of 2022; this is an increase from the $44,130 Michigan Per Capita Debt Balance at the end of the second quarter in 2022 and from the  $41,200 debt a year prior. Overall, the Michigan Per Capita Debt Balance increase 7.69 percent between September of 2022 and September of 2021.

According to WalletHub, $86 billion in new credit card debt was incurred in 2021 in the US. A recent CNBC article noted how household debt has increased at its fastest pace in 15 years, a trend that is further demonstrated in the chart below.  Reasons for the fast-paced increase in debt include inflation and rising interest rates.

Climate Change in Michigan–Now and in the Future

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Climate change is multi-faceted in both its causes and effects. In Michigan, and more specifically Metro-Detroit, many of the causes of these drastic shifts in weather patterns are the same across the globe— the continued use and overuse of fossil fuels, increased carbon emissions, desecration of natural resources. What are the effects?

Increased Average Temperature

Temperatures have already risen 2.5 degrees in Michigan. Summers are hotter, and heatwaves are stronger and last longer. Fast forward to 2100, summers in Isle Royale National Park are expected to 11 degrees hotter, according to statesatrisk.org.

The chart below shows just how Michigan’s annual daily temperatures have changed since 1900 and how they are expected to change up to 2100, depending on the amount of emissions we continue to pump into the environment. The observed data is through 2020 and shows that Michigan’s average temperature has increased by nearly 3 degrees (Fahrenheit) over time. According to the data set from The Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), even with lower emissions temperatures are expected to increase in Michigan by a minimum of 3 degrees through 2100. That number could increase to at least 12 degrees though if the emissions we produce increase.

Increased Flooding

With increasing temperatures that means hotter air, which holds more water. More water means storms produce heavier rainstorms that are slower to move on, meaning greater accumulations of rain.

In 2020 30,000 residents of Southeast Michigan found their homes flooded. Six years earlier, in 2014, there was another great flood—these 100 year events happened within six years of each other.

According to the June 2021 report “Household Flooding in Detroit” by Healthy Urban Waters, in partnership with the Wayne State Center for Urban Studies and others, 43 percent of 4,667 Detroit households surveyed between 2012-2020 reported household flooding. Furthermore, in an online Detroit Office of Sustainability survey published in 2018, 13 percent of those survey reported they experienced flooding very often; 23 percent reported they experienced flooding somewhat often and 32 percent reported they experienced it occasionally. Additionally, a cross-sectional study published in 2016 of 164 homes in Detroit’s Warrendale neighborhood indicated that 64 percent of homes experienced at least one flooding event in during that, with many experiencing three or four events, according to the report.

The map below is a projection map developed by the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments group that shows how precipitation is expected to increase in Southeastern Michigan and the middle of the state to about 2.25 inches between 2040 and 2059 with increased emissions. While Southeastern Michigan will face continued potential flooding events, the data prediction also shows that the western side of the state will have a decrease in precipitation.

An Increased Number of Heat Islands

A heat island, according to the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), is an area where heat is intensified due to structures, such as buildings and roads, that absorb and re-emit the sun’s heat far more than natural landscapes, such as forests and bodies of water. Urban areas, where these structures are highly concentrated and greenery is limited, become “islands” of higher temperatures relative to the outlying areas. Temperatures in such heat islands can be 1 to 7 degrees higher than neighboring areas. The Detroit metropolitan area contains heat islands.

Heat islands can be problematic, according to the EPA, because they can lead to increased energy consumption, increase the emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases and compromise water quality—all of which just further perpetuate climate change. Additionally, heat islands can have negative effects on human health. 

The map below was developed by the CAPA Heat Watch program, through a partnership with the National Integrated Heat Health Information System, NOAA Climate Program Office and the National Weather Service. This map was created from 2020 data and highlights how afternoon temperatures varied depending on the land coverage. For example, on the east side of the City, closer to the river, those areas have greater tree coverage so therefore tend to have cooler temperatures. However, areas with fewer trees, denser residential areas and wider streets have higher temperatures. As noted, this is how heat islands are created and these exist, for example, across the river from Belle Isle and several pockets on the City’s west side.

 Less, or More, Ice Coverage

According to the GLISA, the depth of a lake impacts how rapidly ice can form. So with a shallower lake, there is a greater chance of ice coverage. While depth impacts the ability for a lake to freezer over so does temperature, and with temperatures above freezing there is less to no ice coverage.  Less ice means moisture evaporates into the atmosphere easier, leading way to increased amounts of snow and rain in Michigan.

Also, according to the GLISA,  water temperatures in the fall determine the amount of evaporation from the lake surface because the temperature difference between the air and lake surface temperatures can accelerate evaporation, with warmer water temperatures resulting in greater evaporation. According to the GLISA, “the evaporation removes latent heat from the surface, resulting in a cooling of the surface, and the potential for greater ice cover. For example, if the previous winter experienced low amounts of ice cover (more solar warming), higher evaporation rates (strong cooling effect) during the fall would lead to increased ice cover the next winter. Conversely, cooler water temperatures during fall leads to lower evaporation rates (less cooling) thereby decreased ice cover.”

The effects of climate change on Michigan and Metro-Detroit are apparent with impacts on the daily lives of many. Over the next year we will dig into some of the major contributors to climate change in the region, what policies are being developed to combat the impacts climate change (and how they will work) and what the future of Metro-Detroit may be with a new climate to adapt do.

Is the Future of Southeast Michigan’s Public Transportation Regional?

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The Regional Transit Authority, which is charged with coordinating regional services and developing rapid transit along Woodward, Gratiot and Michigan Avenue corridors in Macomb, Oakland, Washtenaw and Wayne counties, placed a millage on the ballot in 2016 to support such operations. That millage failed and while the sentiment for public transportation in the region has seemed to increase, we are now left wondering whether it is simply public transportation that has garnered more support, or if it is regional transportation.

Millages supporting SMART (the Suburban Mobility Authority for Regional Transportation) passed in Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties in the November 2022 election. Since 1995 each of the three counties have passed such millages every four years to support this local transit authority, although in 2022 the margins for approval of these millages was higher only higher for Macomb County as compared to the approval rates in 2018. None the less, the millages were approved in all three counties, again, such consistency is about to change—whether it’s for the long-term better or worse remains unknown though.

For the short-term, the millage renewals will continue to support public transportation throughout Wayne, Macomb and Oakland counties, and will allow for services to be expanded. Oakland County is the key example of where services will be expanded. Once an “opt-out” county, where each municipality could decide if it wanted to leverage tax dollars to support the public transportation service, Oakland County is now a fully opt-in community. Along with ballot language that gave way to Oakland County being an opt-in county, the now approved millage language also gave way to a 10-year countywide transit millage that will levy 0.95 mills a year starting in 2023. For a home valued at $200,000 (or a home with an SEV of $100,000) the homeowner will pay $95 a year to support the newly approved SMART millage. The Oakland Transit Millage will not only support SMART but also the North Oakland Transportation Authority (NOTA), the Western Oakland Transportation Authority (WOTA) and the Older Persons Commission (OPC) in the Rochester area.

According to Oakland County, these funds levied through the approve transit millage will support services that specifically benefit Oakland County residents and businesses. With the approved millage, Oakland County transit is expected to bring in in about $66.1 million in the first year. According to Oakland County, of those funds, SMART would receive $33.3 million to maintain service and expand routes, the OPC would received $1 million, and the North and West Oakland Transportation Authorities would each receive $2 million. Additionally, $20.4 million will be allocated for new services—with the breakdown being $3.2 million for paratransit, $3.5 million for micro transit, $12 million for more routes and $1.7 million for improvements on existing routes.

Macomb County is another fully opt-in county and has been one since 1995. In November of 2022 Macomb County also approved a 0.95 millage for transit but for five years; traditionally the millages were for four years. The most recent millage passed by 66 percent; in 2018 the millage passed by a margin of only 23 votes. With the passage of this millage, the funds are to support new routes, increased access to on-demand service and improved average wait times, according to SMART.

Wayne County is now the only opt-out county that SMART services. This November voters of opt-in communities approved a four-year 0.994 mill levy that will raise about $20.2 million in its first year, according to Wayne County. In Wayne County, there are 25 communities that opt-in to SMART services, according to the SMART website. Detroit is not an opt-in community as it has its own transportation network serviced by the Detroit Department of Transportation (DDOT).

DDOT and SMART services do overlap in some areas, allowing users to easily travel to-and-from the state’s largest city on direct routes from certain other suburban communities; many of these stops are located along Gratiot, Michigan and Woodward avenues.

While transit in Macomb, Oakland and Wayne counties received continued support in the November 2022 election, the Ann Arbor Area Transit Authority did too in the August 2022 election. A new 2.38 millage was approved by Ann Arbor and Ypsilanti voters to support TheRide, which is operated by the AAATA. This five-year millage aims to improve and expand public transit service in the area. In addition to the passage of this millage, the Southeast Michigan Council of Governments also granted funds to support increasing transportation services between the cities of Ann Arbor and Ypsilanti, along with Ypsilanti Township.

Between the AAATA, SMART, DDOT, NOTA, WOTA, OPC and then Livingston County’s Livingston Essential Transportation Service (LETS), Monroe County’s Lake Erie Transit service and St. Clair County’s Blue Water Area Transit services there are at least nine different public transportation providers in the seven-county region. Then, there is also the RTA, which is meant to oversee the yet-to-be developed regional services, and has the ability to leverage additional transportation millages if approved by voters (and voted to be placed on the ballot by RTA and county leaders)

So, while the recent transit millage approvals highlight increased support for public transportation in Southeast Michigan, it also seems the infrastructure for our fragmented public transportation network is only strengthening. Various mobility options must certainly be made available to meet the differing needs of the population, but benefits may be had when our public transportation and connectivity options are guided by a regional, forward-thinking mission.

Revisiting the November Election as we Enter the 2023 Legislative Term

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First the first time in about 40 years, Democrats will control the upcoming legislative session with Gov. Gretchen Whitmer winning re-election with 54.5 percent of the vote, Democrats winning 20 of the 38 seats in the State Senate and also winning 56 of the 110 seats in the State House of Representatives, according to official Michigan election results.

Prior to the election there was a buzz that Republicans may not only keep control of the legislature but also take control of the Governor seat (and the Secretary of State and Attorney General seats as well). But, that was not the case.

Some facts about the 2022 Gubernatorial Election as it pertains to Michigan, and Southeast Michigan?

Gov. Whitmer won 54.5 percent of the statewide vote and Republican opponent Tudor Dixon won 43.9 percent of the vote, according to official election results. In Southeastern Michigan four of the seven counties in the region voted in favor of Whitmer; those same counties also had a majority percent of voters vote straight party ticket for Democrats over Republicans. The voter counties in the region that voted in favor of Whitmer, and Democrats in general, were Macomb, Oakland, Washtenaw and Wayne counties.

Gov. Whitmer took the highest percentage of votes in Washtenaw County at 75.1 percent; 75.3 percent of Washtenaw County also voted straight party ticket for the Democrat party.

In Macomb County, which Gov. Whitmer also won in 2018 but where former President Donald Trump (R) won in 2016, Gov. Whitmer increased the percentage by which she won from the last time. In 2022 Gov. Whitmer took 51.8 percent of the vote in Macomb County. And, while this county did go blue, it had the lowest percentage of Democrat votes as compared to the other three counties in the region that also went blue. In Wayne County Gov. Whitmer garnered 70.8 percent of the vote and in Oakland County she garnered 61 percent of the vote.

Reports indicate that garnering majority of the votes from Macomb and Oakland counties played key roles in Gov. Whitmer’s win. According to MLive, the last time a candidate won the governor’s election while losing Oakland County was in 1982.

On the other side, of the seven counties in the region it was Livingston County where Dixon garnered the highest percentage of votes at 65.5 percent. In St. Clair County she had 57.8 percent of the vote and in Monroe County she had 55.5 percent of the vote.

St. Clair County had the highest percentage of straight party ticket Republican votes at 64.4 percent.
When examining the results for the State legislature we know that nearly a majority of those who returning to the State legislature are incumbents ( 53 incumbents in the 110 person House of Representatives and 22 incumbents in the 38 person State Senate). Furthermore, of the 53 House of Representatives incumbents, 20 are Democrats and 18 are Republicans. The make up of the 22 State Senate incumbent roster is 11 of whom are Republicans and 11 who are Democrats. Overall though, according to Bridge Michigan, 10 percent of incumbents who ran for re-election this year lost in either the primary or general election. One such incumbent at the Senate level was Mike MacDonald (R-Macomb Township). With the redistricting of legislative seats, MacDonald faced (state legislator) newcomer Veronica Klinefelt (D); Klinefelt garnered 53 percent of the vote and MacDonald garnered 42 percent.
As noted, Macomb County went blue for several state related races, but at the local level the Macomb County Board of Commissioners remains controlled by the Republicans and at the Congressional level a Republican won the race for the new 10th Michigan Congressional District.  

In Macomb County, Congressman-elect John James (R) won 48.6 percent of the vote and his opponent Carl Marlinga (D) took 48.4 percent of the vote in Macomb County. For the entire district, which spans into the Rochester area as well, Marlinga won 48.8 percent of the vote.

With the next legislative term ready to begin, agendas and priorities are already being discussed at the national, state and local levels. Key priorities Drawing Detroit will be giving keen attention to in the coming year include climate change topics such as heat islands, flooding, changing water, carbon and temperature levels, electric vehicle fleets and more.

Right-to-Work, A Michigan Legislative Priority Come 2023?

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Michigan’s Right-to-Work Law may very well be a legislative priority come 2023.

The Right-to-Work law was approved in 2012, allowing workers to opt out of paying dues in union represented jobs while still receiving the benefits of being in a union. When Right-to-Work passed Michigan was led by Republicans, but this is about to change in the State.

Following the November General Election there will now be 20 Democrats and 18 Republicans making up the Michigan State Senate and 56 Democrats and 54 Republicans making up the Michigan House of Representatives. Additionally, Democrats continue to hold the top elected seats—Governor, Secretary of State and Attorney General.

With about a month left until the 2023 legislative session kicks off there is speculation that a repeal of this law may be priority for Democrats.

What do we know about unions in Michigan?

First off, organized labor unions were created to advocate for better wages and safer working conditions for employees. In Michigan, some of the largest union organizations include the United Auto Works, the International Brotherhood of Teamsters and the Michigan Education Association.

Since 2010 the percentage of employed individuals in Michigan who are members of unions declined from 16.5 percent in 2010 to 13.3 percent in 2021, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  In 2021 there were about 540,000 union members in Michigan, with an additional 80,000 wage and salary workers also being represented by a union, according to the BLS. The percentage of employees who are in unions in Michigan reached its peak in 1989 when 26 percent of the workforce was in a union. As noted earlier, Right-to-Work was passed in 2012, and union membership has not exceeded the 2012 percent of employee union representation of 17 since then.

The percentage of employed individuals represented by a union has declined in Michigan, but not as much as membership. According to the BLS, in 2021 15.3 percent of employed individuals in Michigan were represented by a union, a decline from the 17.3 percent representation in 2010 and the 16.6 percent representation in 2020.

While union membership and representation has declined over the last decade, the larger argument at the moment (or so it seems) is what would repealing Right-to-Work in Michigan do for the economy?

One argument is that Right-to-Work states have a higher probability of recruiting manufacturing companies, according to a recent Bridge Michigan article. And, while this may be the case, what will be the wages of those jobs and would they attract employees?

In terms of manufacturing jobs, establishments and wages we know that, overall, those have all increased since 2010, as is shown in the charts below with data from the Michigan Department of Technology, Management and Budget.

In 2010 there were 475,671 manufacturing employees in Michigan and by 2021 that number increased to 585,885. There was a dip in the number of employees in 2020; in 2019 there were 625,766 employees and in 2020 that decreased to 584,818. That number is starting to trend upward again.

There has been a steady increase in the number of manufacturing establishments since 2010 as well, with there being 13,860 manufacturing establishments in Michigan in 2010 and 17,837 in 2021, according to the Michigan Department of Technology, Management and Budget.

Finally, the average weekly earnings of manufacturing employees have also increased since 2010 but they have not kept up with inflation. As shown in the third chart below, the average weekly earnings of a manufacturing employee in Michigan in 2010 was $1,149, and by 2021 that increased to $1,379. The earnings in that time frame increased by 16 percent but inflation between 2010 and 2021 affected the dollar by 36 percent. In other words, the wage increases did not keep up with inflation.

As political leaders and organizations begin to layout their legislative priorities for the upcoming year it will be interesting to see what tops the list. Area news outlets are reporting that expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit and gun reform are some of the issues that will make its way to the 2023 legislative sessions. At the national level, according to a New York Times article, applications for union elections this year are on pace to approach their highest level in a decade, and according to an August, 2022 Gallup Poll 71 percent of Americans currently approve of labor unions, and 40 percent of union members say their membership is “extremely important.“

Whether or not Right-to-Work will resurface as a top issue in Michigan remains unknown though.

Small Businesses Growth in Michigan is Occurring, But at What Pace?

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The growth of small businesses, or lack thereof, in Michigan varies depending on the sources.

While we know business closures have declined since the height of the pandemic and business applications continue to be submitted, anecdotes around employment in Southeastern Michigan tell a story that larger companies, which often have the capacity to offer higher wages and additional benefits, are gaining and retaining more employees than smaller businesses.

The data that we do know is that, according to a May 2022 press release from Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s office there are 902,000 small businesses in Michigan which employ 1.9 million individuals.  We also know that unemployment in Detroit and Michigan has seen an overall decline. In September of 2022, according to the Michigan Department of Technology, Management and Budget the unemployment rate for the City of Detroit was 7 percent; the unemployment rate for the State of Michigan was 4.1 percent. These are two of the lowest unemployment rates each area has seen in over two years. When comparing unemployment rates by county between September of 2021 and September of 2022 we again see that unemployment rates for September of 2022 were down from the year prior. Overall, Livingston County had the lowest unemployment rate of 2.1 percent in September of 2022 and Wayne County experienced the largest decline with its unemployment rate changing from 7.3 percent in September of 2021 to 4 percent in September of 2022.

While low unemployment rates are one sign of a strong economy, according to a recent Detroit News article, 88 percent of respondents in a Goldman Sachs survey said small businesses are struggling compared to larger businesses. The reason? According to the survey, 42 percent of respondents said they lost employees to larger businesses that are paying more. With inflation continuing to rise, this is not surprising.

However, despite such challenges laid out by survey respondents, according to the 18th Annual Small Business Association of Michigan Entrepreneurship  Score Card, since 2020 small businesses in Michigan have outperformed the U.S. as a whole in terms of percent growth in businesses open and business revenue.

According to the scorecard, between January of 2020 and Feb. 6, 2022 small businesses in the State of Michigan have opened at a rate of 8.5 percent. In the U.S. small businesses have opened at a rate of 3.1 percent in that time frame. The Michigan rate represents an increase in small business revenue of 24.2% compared to 8% for the U.S., the report stated.

As displayed in the first chart below, the Southeast Michigan Council of Governments (SEMCOG) obtains data for the U.S. Census Bureau on small business applications in Michigan. According to this data, there 730 High-prosperity Business Applications during the week of November 18, 2022 and 250 Small Business Applications with Planned Wages. While the data for each category can shift somewhat dramatically from week-to-week, there is an overall trend of business applications in Michigan increasing since September of 2022 yet decreasing from both earlier in 2022 and since the beginning of the pandemic.

According to SEMCOG, high-Propensity Business Applications (HBA) are applications for a federal Employer Identification Number (EIN) where the characteristics of the application indicate that it is more likely to form a business with payroll. Businesses Applications with Planned Wages (WBA) are a subset of HBA that indicate a first wages-paid date, increasing the likelihood that such a business will have a paid employees.

While the data shows businesses continue to open in Michigan, business closures slowed through April of 2022 (The last time such data was available through SEMCOG) compared to early on in the pandemic. According to SEMCOG data obtained from through the Census Bureau’s Small Business Pulse Survey, 4.3 percent of the 900,000 single-location businesses sample size closed during the week of April 9, 2022. The highest percent closure of this sample size was 9.2 percent during the week of November 20, 2020.

One way to help keep small businesses open is to shop local. This is the goal of Small Business Saturday, which occurs the Saturday after Thanksgiving. This is a campaign that American Express began in 2010 to help support small businesses in the midst of the Great Recession. It has certainly seen success over the years, with 51 million shoppers in the U.S. spending more than $23 billion at small businesses in 2021, according to American Express. However, the real takeaway here should be that for every $1 spent at a small business, it is estimated that $0.68 of those funds remain in the local economy (or, for every $100 spent, $68 remains in the local economy). This is something we should consider as part of our regular shopping habits, and not just one day a year.