Monthly Archives: June 2021

Great Lakes Levels Decline in 2021

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A State of Emergency was declared for Wayne County due to flooding from Friday’s storm, I94 is still cannot be traversed in some places, and hundreds of residents in Southeastern Michigan will be dealing with flood damage to their homes for weeks–even months–to come. But, despite the onslaught of heavy rain, the Great Lakes levels remain lower than last year. 

How can this be? 


For perspective, one inch of water on Lakes Michigan and Huron is composed of 800 billion gallons of water. The 22 inches of water that has left Lake Michigan and Lake Huron over the last year represents 17.6 trillion gallons of water. It is total precipitation–rain and snowfall–that impacts water levels. Less precipitation and warmer days lead to lower lake levels. To put it in a different way, heavy snowfalls with low temperatures lead to greater ice coverage, causing less amounts of water to evaporate in the Great Lakes basin, and therefore leading to higher water levels. Evaporation levels are the highest when the temperature difference between the water and the air is high, and when the water is warmer than the air.

A State of Emergency was declared for Wayne County due to flooding from Friday’s storm, I94 is still cannot be traversed in some places, and hundreds of residents in Southeastern Michigan will be dealing with flood damage to their homes for weeks–even months–to come. But, despite the onslaught of heavy rain, the Great Lakes levels remain lower than last year. 

How can this be? 
For perspective, one inch of water on Lakes Michigan and Huron is composed of 800 billion gallons of water. The 22 inches of water that has left Lake Michigan and Lake Huron over the last year represents 17.6 trillion gallons of water. It is total precipitation–rain and snowfall–that impacts water levels. Less precipitation and warmer days lead to lower lake levels. To put it in a different way, heavy snowfalls with low temperatures lead to greater ice coverage, causing less amounts of water to evaporate in the Great Lakes basin, and therefore leading to higher water levels. Evaporation levels are the highest when the temperature difference between the water and the air is high, and when the water is warmer than the air.

According to the US Army Corps of Engineers, average lake levels for the Great Lakes Basin  for 2021 are much lower than what they averaged in 2020 during the month of June. Forecasted June 25, 2021 data from the US Army Corps of Engineers shows that the Lakes Michigan-Huron system is 22 inches below where it was on June 25 of 2020; the water level in Lake Ontario is 21 inches lower than where it was this time last year. Lake Superior, the largest and deepest lake in the Great Lakes, has water levels 7 inches below where it was in June of 2020. 

Less snowfall and warmer days meant the Great Lakes did not rise as high as they typically do in the spring. However, even though lake levels are lower than what they have been in recent years, they remain much higher than the long-term averages, with the exception of Lake Ontario. Lakes Michigan-Huron, Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair are all 13 or more inches higher than long-term averages. Lakes-Michigan-Huron are 13 inches higher than the long-term average while Lake St. Clair is 16 inches higher and Lake Erie is 14 inches higher. Lake Superior is 4 inches higher than the long-term June average, and Lake Ontario is 14 inches lower than the long-term June average. Of course, looking at how much higher current levels are than the lowest record monthly mean paints another picture.  Lakes Michigan-Huron, Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair are all 45-50 inches higher than the lowest record average in June. 

The shifts in weather patterns locally and beyond certainly mean changes for the long-term for what we may come to expect. Despite Great Lakes levels being low this year, on average, they remain higher than long-term averages. But, if we continue to have milder winters and hotter summers, then that will have the opposite effect on our Great Lakes–a loss of one of our greatest natural resources.  

A Look At Our Fathers

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We may have just celebrated Father’s Day, but year-round dads work and take care of their children. For many, this is reflective in a more traditional, nuclear setting but there are thousands of instances where the dad is the sole caretaker–in more ways than one. 

According to the 2019 American Community Survey, information on the percentage of children living with only their father is categorized by those 6 years of age and under and then those between the ages of 7-17. Throughout Southeastern Michigan less than 5 percent of children 6 years of age or younger in each county live solely with their father. According to the data, in 2019 Macomb County had the highest percentage of children 6 years of age or younger only living with their father at 3.4 percent, followed by Monroe County where 3.2 percent of children 6 years of age and younger lived with only their father. In St. Clair and Wayne counties 3 percent of children 6 years of age and younger lived with their father. For those between the ages of 7 and 17, Macomb County again had the highest percentage of children living with only their father at 6.8 percent. Wayne County had the second highest percentage of children living with only their father at 6.4 percent and Washtenaw County had the lowest percentage of children between the ages of 7-17 living with only their father at 3.3 percent.

In addition to tracking data on the percentage of children living with only their father, the Census also tracks how many children live in a home with both a mother and father, but where only the father works. For the 6 years of age and younger group, Monroe County had the highest percentage of married fathers being the sole income providers for the family at 9.5 percent, followed by Macomb County at 9.2 percent. Washtenaw County had the lowest percentage of married fathers with children 6 years of age or younger who were the sole income providers at 5.8 percent. For the 7-17 age range, Livingston County had the highest percentage of children of married fathers being the sole income providers for the family at 15.4 percent, followed by Macomb County at 13.7 percent. 

While this post shows data on fathers that is not traditionally seen, in researching data on fathers it was also discovered that data sets on them are not as extensive as on mothers. None-the-less, fathers deserve thanks year-round, whether they are serving as the sole income provider for a home, supporting their family with a partner or raising children on their own. 

Rental Prices in Southeastern Michigan Continue to Rise

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The rental market in Southeastern Michigan is mirroring that of the home-buying market. With low supply and rising prices, being further driven up by high demand, many are finding it difficult to secure a rental home, especially one they can afford, according to various news sources. 

According to Re/MAX of Southeastern Michigan, there are fewer rental units on the market than homes for sale. There were 2,480 single-family homes for rent from January through April, across 18 counties in central and southeastern Michigan, according to Realcomp. That number has decreased for two consecutive years, with 3,090 rental homes being available the same period in 2020, and 3,514 through the same period in 2019. 

Below shows the percentage of vacant rental units available in 2019 by county in Southeastern Michigan, according to the American Community Survey. As shown, Oakland County had the highest percentage of vacant rental units at 23.8 percent, followed by Macomb County at 22.9 percent. St. Clair County had the lowest available rental stock at 7.3 percent. As mentioned above though, available rental stock across the region, and state, has decreased, increasing demand and making it more difficult and competitive for individuals to find rental units. According to Re/MAX, another factor driving low rental unit stock is that would-be homebuyers are remaining in rentals longer due to the low stock and high price of homes for sale.

According to a recent Detroit News article, rental prices have increased upwards of 20 percent in the last year. According to the 2019 American Community Survey, Washtenaw County had the highest median gross rent at $1,114, followed by Oakland County with a gross median rent of $1,040 and Livingston County with a gross median rent of $1,053. These were the only area counties with gross median rents above $1,000 but with rental prices increasing upwards of 20 percent throughout the region, others, such as Macomb County (2019 median rent of $962) will be above that threshold. 

According to the Detroit News, which used ApartmentGuide.com as a source, the average rent for a one-bedroom apartment in Detroit rose from $1,332 to $1,516 between April 2020 and April 2021, and a two-bedroom apartment in Detroit rose from $1,764 to $2,319. In Farmington Hills, which is also in Wayne County, the average rent for a one-bedroom increased from $1,134 to $1,289 from April 2020 to April 2021, and a two-bedroom increased from $1,442 to $1,655. The City of Troy experienced the largest year-to-year change at 63.3 percent, according to the data, while Southfield experienced a 33 percent change and Rochester Hills experienced a 30 percent change. Ann Arbor, Grand Rapids, Lansing and Ypsilanti, all college towns, experienced decreases in average rental prices between 2020-2021, likely due to the decreased numbers of students needing housing because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

With increased rental unit pricing comes the concern of affordability. The average rule of thumb is that those who rent should spend about 30 percent of their income on their rental unit. In 2019, according to the American Community Survey, the average resident living in Wayne and Monroe counties was already living above that. According to the data, the average percentage of gross income spent on rent in Wayne County was 32 percent and in Monroe County it was 30.7 percent. Macomb, St. Clair and Washtenaw counties were all at the 30 percent threshold (29.3%, 29.7% and 29.8%, respectively). Oakland County had the lowest percentage of gross median income spent on rent at 26.8 percent.

Increasing rental prices, driven by lack of supply, will affect thousands of people throughout the region. According to the 2019 American Community Survey, in Wayne County, 38 percent of occupied housing units in the county were occupied by renters. In Washtenaw County that percentage was 39, but it likely decreased in 2020 and 2021 due to the lack of students on college campuses because of the pandemic. Livingston County had the lowest percentage of occupied housing units occupied by renters at 15; all other counties in the region had percentages above 20.

The low rental stock and increase of rental prices is now drawing even greater concern as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s moratorium on some evictions is set to end June 30. According to Michigan’s 2-1-1 service, which is a United Way service that connects individuals with various agencies to provide assistance, 21,318 inquiries were made between March 5, 2020 and June 9, 2021 about rental assistance. Furthermore, according to the Census Bureau’s Pulse Survey, about 250,000 Michigan residents said they were behind on rent or mortgage payments as of April 26, 2021.  In March of this year, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer approved allocating about $282 million in federal rental aid, $220 million of which is for emergency rental assistance. Michigan also received $660 million in rent aid from Congress in December of 2020, but how it can be allocated must be approved by the Michigan legislature. There may also be another round of funding of about $223 million to come to Michigan from the federal government, according to the Michigan State Housing Development Authority.

Number of Michigan Concealed Pistol Licenses Continues to Rise

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As of June 1, 2021 there were 751,102 approved Concealed Pistol Licenses (CPLs) in Michigan, a number that has been increasing over the years. Of that total, 46 percent of those license holders reside in Southeastern Michigan. Within Southeastern Michigan, Wayne County has the highest number of CPL holders at 120,164, followed by Oakland and Macomb counties (89,596 and 72,515, respectively).

In order to obtain a CPL a Michigan resident must meet the following requirements:

  • Be at least 21 years of age
  • Be a citizen of the United States or an alien lawfully admitted into the United States
  • Be a legal resident of Michigan and reside in Michigan for at least six months immediately prior to application.
  • Not have been convicted of various crimes
  • Meet certain requirements regarding mental illness
  • Complete a CPL class

To view the entire criteria list click here. 

In 2016 County Gun Boards were eliminated; these bodies had the power to deny an individual a CPL if the license was deemed detrimental to the applicant or others. Now, County Clerks and the Michigan State Police process concealed weapon applications. As noted earlier, since then the number of CPLs in Michigan has increased. As of December 2016 there were 497,016 active CPLs in Michigan and now there are 751,102.

The cost of the CPL application process varies between counties (specifically County Clerk departments) and according to the Michigan State Police, in Southeastern Michigan it cost Washtenaw County the most, on average, to process an application at $36.08. Livingston County had the lowest average cost at $14.81. 

The data used for this post is from the Michigan State Police.

A Look Into Southeastern Michigan’s Housing Price Spike

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It’s no secret that over the last year-and-a-half the housing market has experienced an increase in the number of sales and prices and a decrease in stock. At a time when economic stability has been uncertain for hundreds of thousands, an obvious question is—what is driving the housing market up? As the data sets below show there are several factors behind rising sales and decreasing housing stock.

First, understanding how the average price of a single-dwelling unit has changed over the last several years is important in understanding how housing prices got to where they are today. According to the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, the average price of single-family dwellings sold in Metro Detroit was $148,500 in February of 2021; this was $1,500 higher than the average family dwelling price in January. The February 2021 price was an increase of $14,070 from February of 2020 (over a 10 percent increase) and $49,430 from February of 2014. Home prices have continued to increase year-after-year but the recent average price of single-family dwellings sold in the Metro-Detroit area has increased at a higher rate than in previous years.

One reason behind the increased cost of a single family dwelling unit is the supply. Simply put, the availability is not meeting the demand. According to a RE/MAX of Southeastern Michigan housing report from March, the supply of inventory for available homes is at less than a month. A balanced housing market has six months supply of inventory, according to RE/MAX. According to the National Association of Realtors a months supply of inventory means the number of months it would take for the current inventory of homes to sell if no other homes were to hit the market.

One way to increase inventory is to build more homes. However, this takes time and also costs money. According to the Federal Reserve of Economic Data there were 942 housing starts in the Detroit-Warren-Dearborn Metropolitan Statistical Area as of March 1, 2021; on March 1, 2020 there were 452 housing starts. While the data shows an increase in housing starts since 2020, housing starts have not reached the peak levels of 2017 (1,308 on May 1, 2017). In order to move housing starts along there needs to several things, including demand, enough workers to meet demand, and supplies.

Lumber is a large component in building homes, and completing remodels. With a higher demand for new housing starts and remodels, the price of lumber has increased nationally. According to the National Association of Home Building, lumber prices have increased by more than 300 percent since April 2020; this has caused the average price of a new single-family home to increase by nearly $36,000.

The chart below shows an overview of how framing lumber prices have fluctuated, and grown, in recent months. As of May 14, 2021 the average price of lumber per thousand board feet was about $1,500; in early November of 2020 the price was recorded at just under $600. The information is sourced each week using the Random Lengths Framing Lumber Composite which is comprised using prices from the highest volume-producing regions of the U.S. and Canada.

Lumber is a large component in building homes, and completing remodels. With a higher demand for new housing starts and remodels, the price of lumber has increased nationally. According to the National Association of Home Building, lumber prices have increased by more than 300 percent since April 2020; this has caused the average price of a new single-family home to increase by nearly $36,000.

The chart below shows an overview of how framing lumber prices have fluctuated, and grown, in recent months. As of May 14, 2021 the average price of lumber per thousand board feet was about $1,500; in early November of 2020 the price was recorded at just under $600. The information is sourced each week using the Random Lengths Framing Lumber Composite which is comprised using prices from the highest volume-producing regions of the U.S. and Canada.

In addition to supply and demand of housing stock and materials, low mortgage rates are also behind an increase in home sales. According to the National Association of Home Builders the average annual rate of a 30-year fixed mortgage in April 2021 was 3.15 percent; the average annual rate for a 15-year fixed mortgage in April 2021 was 2.47 percent. The data shown below goes back to February of 2015 and in that time frame rates have never been as low as they have been within the last year. While the April rates are slightly up from the December 2020 rates, overall mortgage rates have been decreasing since December of 2018.