According to the State of Michigan, the total number of COVID cases in Michigan rose to 50,079 on May 15, an increase of 497 cases from the previous day. This total was equivalent to 501 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 4). The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing and/or the quality of reporting or failure to report. While the curve is smooth, Chart 1 shows that number of cases in Michigan continues to increase, although that rate has been declining overall.

Chart 2 shows that, based on the five-day rolling averages, the number of new COVID cases in Southeastern Michigan are also only gradually increasing. The number of cumulative COVID cases remained the highest in Detroit, reaching just above 10,000 on May 13, with Wayne County following at a reported 8,479 cases. On May 13, the five-day rolling average for the number of COVID cases in Oakland County was 7,861, and Macomb County reported 6,161.

The City of Detroit had 1,521 COVID cases per 100,000 people on May 15, an increase from 1,511 the day before (Chart 3). This is based upon a reported increase of 66 new cases, bringing the total number of COVID cases in Detroit to 10,230. Wayne County reported 804 cases per 100,000 people, and Oakland County had 636 cases per 100,000 people. These per capita rates were based upon 8,652 total cases for Wayne and 7,994 for Oakland. Macomb County reported 718 cases per 100,000 people, which is based upon 6,274 cases.

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data were supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State. Additionally, the case totals do not reflect the number of people who have recovered, just those who have been infected.

Chart 4 shows that Detroit reported the highest number of daily cases at 89 on May 13, only a small decrease from the day prior. Overall, this chart shows that daily case numbers are declining but the last two days those numbers have been higher than they were in the previous week. This is in part because the 5-day rolling average calculation used for this chart still reflects the spike in daily cases from two days ago.

Chart 5 highlights how the per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people did drop down on May 15, following the May 14 spike. Those rates are now coming back inline with the per capita rates that have been reported for the last week. The per capita rate for Detroit on May 15 was 10 new COVID cases per 100,000 people; this was equivalent to 66 new cases. Wayne County’s per capita rate was 4 new COVID cases, which was equivalent to 46 new cases. Oakland County reported a per capita rate of 3 new cases per 100,000 people on May 15, which was equivalent to 42 new cases, and Macomb County reported a rate of 5, which was also equivalent to 42 new cases.

The State’s per capita rate was 5 new cases per 100,000 people, equivalent to 497 new cases. Of these 497 new cases, Southeastern Michigan accounted for 209. This shows that Southeastern Michigan did not account for the majority of new cases in the State on May 15. 

In Chart 6, the five-day rolling average for the number of deaths in Michigan shows a continuing slow increase (a lagged number of 4,717 deaths, an increase of 55 deaths). The actual reported COVID-19 deaths reached 4,825 on May 15, an increase of 38 deaths from the day prior. Of those 38 additional deaths Southeastern Michigan accounted for 23 of them on May 15.

Chart 7 (a 5-day rolling average) portrays how the total number of COVID deaths in Southeastern Michigan continues to level off, with Detroit reporting the highest cumulative number of deaths at 1,220 on May 13. Wayne County had the second highest total at 935 on May 13.

Chart 8 portrays the total number of COVID deaths per 100,000 people. As of May 15, the cumulative total of COVID deaths per 100,000 people in Detroit was 184 (representing 1,236 deaths). In Wayne County there were 88 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (947 total deaths), in Oakland County there were 71 deaths per 100,000 people (888 total deaths), and in Macomb County there were 83 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (728 total). Detroit reported the highest number of additional deaths at 8.

The State of Michigan had 48 COVID deaths per 100,000 people.

In Chart 9 we see that the number of daily statewide deaths increased slightly to 55 on May 13; 52 daily deaths were reported on May 12. Overall though, the number of daily deaths continues to decline both throughout the State and Southeastern Michigan. Chart 10 shows how the number of deaths in Southeastern Michigan decreased throughout the region, except in Oakland County. On May 13 Oakland County reported 11 daily COVID deaths, 2 more than the day prior. Both Oakland County and Detroit reported the highest number of daily deaths on May 13 at 11. These numbers are based on 5-day rolling averages.

The fatality rates remained stable for May 15, with Detroit continuing to have the highest rate at 12.2 percent. The State reported a 9.6 percent fatality rate.

One reason we may be seeing such high fatality rates in Michigan is due to the low testing rates. When only having-presumably-a lower of number confirmed COVID cases than is actually likely due to the limited availability of tests, the fatality rate appears higher because the base comparison is smaller than it might be.

On the other hand, there is the possibility that despite increasing numbers of tests, the case fatality rate might remain high. If so, this means COVID-19 is a very lethal disease. A recent New York Times article stated that the number of non-reported COVID deaths could be as many as 21,500 throughout the Country. The NYT estimates Michigan has among the highest number of unreported Covid-19 cases in the U.S.

The number of daily deaths continues to decline in Michigan and throughout Southeastern Michigan. While this is certainly positive news, the daily case numbers still have a long way to go before reaching the single digits. Recent daily case number increases have been related to data backlogs and increased testing. On May 13 the State performed the highest number of COVID tests in a single day yet. With more testing available we can better monitor those infected, allowing higher recovery rates, lower number of deaths and fewer opportunities for community spread.

Additionally, as noted yesterday, the decline in daily deaths may not be as accurate as suspected, meaning more COVID deaths have occurred than are accounted for.

According to the State of Michigan, the total number of COVID cases in Michigan rose to 49,582 on May 14, an increase of 1,191 cases from the previous day. This total was equivalent to 497 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 4). The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing and/or the quality of reporting or failure to report. While the curve is smooth, and still trending upward at a much lower rate, Chart 1 does reflect a larger increase on May 12 than what has been trending. The 1,191 case increase on May 14, which is reflected in Chart 1 with the 5-day rolling average calculation, is partially due to a backlog of case information from Michigan’s correctional facilities that is now being reported, according to the State. Additionally, the State continues to increase the number of people being tested, including those in correctional facilities. The 1,191 daily cases reported on May 14 is the highest daily case number that has been reported since April 29.

Chart 2 shows that, based on the five-day rolling averages, the number of new COVID cases in Southeastern Michigan are also only gradually increasing, but Detroit’s rates are increasing at a higher pace than the other entities in the region. The number of cumulative COVID cases remained the highest in Detroit at 9,934 on May 12, with Wayne County following at a reported 8,406 cases. On May 12, the five-day rolling average for the number of COVID cases in Oakland County was 7,811, and Macomb County reported 6,114.

The City of Detroit had 1,511 COVID cases per 100,000 people on May 11, an increase from 1,483 the day before (Chart 3). This is based upon a reported increase of 191 new cases, bringing the total number of COVID cases in Detroit to 10,164 . Wayne County reported 799 cases per 100,000 people, and Oakland County had 632 cases per 100,000 people. These per capita rates were based upon 8,606 total cases for Wayne and 7,952 for Oakland. Macomb County reported 713 cases per 100,000 people, which is based upon 6,232 cases. Please note there was an error in population numbers for some of the entities reported here, which affected recent per capita rate numbers. That has been adjusted, as have the rate numbers. These overall trends have not changed though.

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data were supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State. Additionally, the case totals do not reflect the number of people who have recovered, just those who have been infected.

Chart 4 shows that Detroit reported the highest number of daily cases at 91 on May 12, an increase from the 65 new cases reported the day prior. Overall this chart reflects that the largest daily case increase since April did impact Detroit and Macomb, Oakland and Wayne counties.

Chart 5 further highlights how the per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people did noticeably increase for Detroit and Macomb, Oakland and Wayne counties. The per capita rate for Detroit on May 14 was 28 new COVID cases per 100,000 people; this was equivalent to 191 new cases and more than double the per capita rate from the day prior. Wayne County’s per capita rate increased to 18 new COVID cases, which was equivalent to 190 new cases. Oakland County reported a per capita rate of 10 new cases per 100,000 people on May 14, which was equivalent to 122 new cases, and Macomb County reported a rate of 11, which was equivalent to 95 new cases.

The State’s per capita rate was 11.9 new cases per 100,000 people, equivalent to 1,191 new cases. Of these 1,191 new cases, Southeastern Michigan accounted for 653.

In Chart 6, the five-day rolling average for the number of deaths shows a continuing slow increase (a lagged number of 4,662 deaths, an increase of 52 deaths). The actual reported COVID-19 deaths reached 4,787 on May 14, an increase of 73 deaths from the day prior. Of those 73 deaths, 35 were added to the May 14 count as a result of the State comparing death records with the COVID database. Southeastern Michigan contributed 55 additional deaths to the overall 73 reported on May 14. Even with the addition of the 35 deaths, the overall daily death county continued to decrease from the day prior.

Chart 7 portrays how the total number of COVID deaths in Detroit moved above 1,200 on May 12. According to the 5-day rolling average data Detroit reported 1,209 cumulative deaths. Wayne County had the second highest total at 927 on May 12.

Chart 8 portrays the total number of COVID deaths per 100,000 people. As of May 14, the cumulative total of COVID deaths per 100,000 people in Detroit was 184 (representing 1,236 deaths). In Wayne County there were 88 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (947 total deaths), in Oakland County there were 71 deaths per 100,000 people (888 total deaths), and in Macomb County there were 83 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (728 total). Detroit reported the highest number of additional deaths at 18.

The State of Michigan had 48 COVID deaths per 100,000 people.

Although the number of daily cases spiked up on May 14, the number of daily deaths continued to decline both statewide and regionally. In Chart 9 we see that the number of daily statewide deaths decreased to 52, and in Chart 10 we see that the number of daily deaths has been declining as well. Chart 10 also shows how the number of deaths in Southeastern Michigan has a large impact on the statewide deaths. Detroit reported the highest number of daily deaths on May 12 at 11, a decline from the 13 daily deaths reported the day prior. These numbers are based on 5-day rolling averages.

The fatality rate for Detroit was 12.2 percent on May 14 and the State’s rate was 9.7 percent. The fatality rates for Macomb, Oakland and Wayne counties all remained above 11 percent.

One reason we may be seeing such high fatality rates in Michigan is due to the low testing rates. When only having-presumably-a lower of number confirmed COVID cases than is actually likely due to the limited availability of tests, the fatality rate appears higher because the base comparison is smaller than it might be.

On the other hand, there is the possibility that despite increasing numbers of tests, the case fatality rate might remain high. If so, this means COVID-19 is a very lethal disease.

On May 14 the number of daily COVID cases reached the highest its highest point since late April. Although some of the 1,191 daily cases reported are a result of a backlog of case data from Michigan correctional facilities, it also leaves the question as to how many additional cases haven’t been reported. And, while the number of daily deaths continues to decline, a recent New York Times article states that the true number of COVID deaths are highly underreported throughout the Country. In Michigan, we see some signs of this as daily death numbers spike up three times a week due to a comparison of death certificates and COVID databases. But, as the article states, there are certainly even more COVID deaths that aren’t be accounted for any way.

So, as the statewide case and death numbers decline overall, information such as that presented yesterday does highlight how data spikes can happen for several reasons. Not only are backlogged and lack of data and increased testing such reasons, but also if the rate of community spread increases due to people disobeying the Stay-at-Home order.

According to a recent New York Times article, the number of COVID deaths throughout the country is estimated to be undercounted by about 21,500 deaths. This number certainly impacts Michigan, as we reached 4,787 deaths on May 14. In Michigan we know that the daily death numbers are often underreported because the State adds “additional deaths” to its daily total three times a week. These deaths are tacked onto the daily total after they have been discovered by comparing death certificates and the State’s COVID database. However, as this article states, the cause of death for many individuals who died recently is unknown because an autopsy wasn’t conducted and they didn’t receive a COVID test. Additionally, as the virus began to hit the country in the early days many the cause of death for many individuals was listed as “respiratory failure” or multisystem organ failure. Overall, this article shows how this virus continues to kill more people than accounted for, which already totals more than the number of Americans who died over seven decades in the Korean, Vietnam, Persian Gulf, Afghanistan and Iraq Wars.

According to the State of Michigan, the total number of COVID cases in Michigan rose to 48,391 on May 13, an increase of 370 cases from the previous day. This total was equivalent to 485 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 4). The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing and/or the quality of reporting or failure to report. The upward trend of the curve has been flattening in recent weeks as the number of new COVID cases, both throughout the State and regionally, gradually declines. In Southeastern Michigan, Detroit reported the highest number of daily cases at 65 on May 11; this was a decline from the day before (Chart 4). Note that this five day rolling average causes these daily case and daily death charts to lag two days behind.

Chart 2 shows that, based on the five-day rolling averages, the number of new COVID cases in Southeastern Michigan continues to flatten. The number of cumulative COVID cases remained the highest in Detroit at 9,843 on May 11, with Wayne County following at a reported 8,335 cases. On May 11, the five-day rolling average for the number of COVID cases in Oakland County was 7,759, and Macomb County reported 6,072.

The City of Detroit had 1,483 COVID cases per 100,000 people on May 13, an increase from 1,471 the day before (Chart 3). This is based upon a reported increase of 76 new cases, bringing the total number of COVID cases in Detroit to 9,973. Wayne County reported 1,251 cases per 100,000 people, and Oakland County had 1,164 cases per 100,000 people. These per capita rates were based upon 8,416 total cases for Wayne and 7,830 for Oakland. Macomb County reported 912 cases per 100,000 people, which is based upon 6,137 cases.

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data were supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State. Additionally, the case totals do not reflect the number of people who have recovered, just those who have been infected.

As noted, Chart 4 shows that Detroit reported the highest number of daily cases at 65 on May 11. This chart further highlights how the number of new cases, calculated with a 5-day rolling average, have flattened out of over the last week throughout Southeastern Michigan.

Chart 5 shows that the per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people has nearly flattened out across Southeastern Michigan, but with Detroit still remaining noticeably above the others. The per capita rate for Detroit on May 13 was 11 new COVID cases per 100,000 people; this was equivalent to 76 new cases. Wayne County’s per capita rate increased to 4 new COVID cases, which was equivalent to 39 new cases. Oakland County reported a per capita rate of 4 new cases per 100,000 people on May 13, which was equivalent to 46 new cases, and Macomb County reported a rate of 5, which was equivalent to 40 new cases.

The State’s per capita rate was 3.7 new cases per 100,000 people, equivalent to 370 new cases. Of these 370 new cases, Southeastern Michigan accounted for 218.

The chart also shows that the per capita rates for the number of daily COVID cases has been fairly stable for the last several days.

In Chart 6, the five-day rolling average for the number of cumulative deaths shows a continuing slow increase (a lagged number of 4,610 deaths, an increase of 64 deaths). The actual reported COVID-19 deaths reached 4,714 on May 13, an increase of 40 deaths from the day prior. Southeastern Michigan contributed 27 additional deaths to the overall 40 reported on May 13. Such data further shows that while the rate of death is increasing at a much slower rate throughout the State and in Southeastern Michigan, the Southeastern Michigan region accounts for the majority of the growth in cases and deaths.

Chart 7 portrays how the total number of COVID deaths in Southeastern Michigan continues to increase, but at a much slower rate. The rate of increase is gradually declining because the number of additional deaths throughout the State (Chart 9) and the region are declining.

Chart 8 portrays the total number of COVID deaths per 100,000 people. As of May 13, the cumulative total of COVID deaths per 100,000 people in Detroit was 181 (representing 1,218 deaths). In Wayne County there were 139 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (938 total deaths), in Oakland County there were 130 deaths per 100,000 people (874 total deaths), and in Macomb County there were 107 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (717 total). Wayne County reported the highest number of additional deaths at 11.

As shown in Chart 9, the last time the State reported as few deaths as was reported on May 11 (as determined by a 5-day rolling average) was in March; the State reported 64 daily COVID deaths on May 11.

The State of Michigan had 47 COVID deaths per 100,000 people.

Just as the State’s daily COVID death numbers are gradually declining so are those numbers in Southeastern Michigan. Chart 10 highlights how since mid-April the overall number of daily COVID deaths has declined in Detroit and Macomb, Oakland and Wayne counties. Even more recently, those numbers are leveling off. Oakland County reported the highest number of additional deaths on May 11 at 14, this was based on a 5-day rolling average calculation. Detroit reported 13 additional daily deaths, the same number it reported for the last three days. Wayne County also reported 13 additional daily COVID deaths on May 11, based on 5-day rolling averages, while Macomb County reported 7.

The fatality rate for Detroit continued to hover above 12 percent on May 13 while Macomb County’s fatality rate inched toward 12 percent. Detroit reported a fatality rate of 12.2 percent and Macomb County reported a fatality rate of 11.7 percent. The State reported a 9.7 percent fatality rate on May 13, the same rate it reported the day prior.

One reason we may be seeing such high fatality rates in Michigan is due to the low testing rates. When only having-presumably-a lower of number confirmed COVID cases than is actually likely due to the limited availability of tests, the fatality rate appears higher because the base comparison is smaller than it might be.

On the other hand, there is the possibility that despite increasing numbers of tests, the case fatality rate might remain high. If so, this means COVID-19 is a very lethal disease.

The data continues to show that the spread of the virus is slowing down, with the number of daily case and death numbers declining overall. However, a new concern was raised on May 13 by Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, and others, following a New York Times article that showed how Michigan had the largest drop in the percentage of people staying home last week. According to the article, about 1 million people started leaving their homes again. We do know that some industry-such as construction and manufacturing-have begun to open in Michigan, and this is certainly affecting the increase in the number of people moving about. We also know that, given the infectious nature of this virus, the increased amount of movement might trigger an increase in COVID case numbers for another week or so.

According to the State of Michigan, the total number of COVID cases in Michigan rose to 48,021 on May 12, an increase of 469 cases from the previous day. This total was equivalent to 481 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 4). The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing and/or the quality of reporting or failure to report. That upward trend of the curve has been flattening in recent weeks as the number of new COVID cases, both throughout the State and regionally, gradually declines. In Southeastern Michigan, Detroit reported the highest number of daily cases at 66 on May 10; this was a decline from the day before (Chart 3). Note that this five day rolling average causes these daily case and daily death charts to lag two days behind.

Chart 2 shows that, based on the five-day rolling averages, the number of new COVID cases in Southeastern Michigan continues to progress upwards at small increments, giving way to a much flatter curve than when the virus first landed in Michigan. The number of cumulative COVID cases remained the highest in Detroit at 9,778 on May 10, with Wayne County following at a reported 8,287 cases. On May 10, the five-day rolling average for the number of COVID cases in Oakland County was 7,726, and Macomb County reported 6,037.

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data were supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State.

The City of Detroit had 1,471 COVID cases per 100,000 people on May 12, an increase from 1,464 the day before (Chart 4). This is based upon a reported increase of 46 new cases, bringing the total number of COVID cases in Detroit to 9,897. Wayne County reported 1,245 cases per 100,000 people, and Oakland County had 1,157 cases per 100,000 people. These per capita rates were based upon 8,377 total cases for Wayne and 7,784 for Oakland. Macomb County reported 906 cases per 100,000 people, which is based upon 6,097 cases.

Chart 5 shows that the per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people is much closer in range for all counties and the City of Detroit now than it was even a week ago. On May 12 the per capita rates ranged from 1 new COVID case per 100,000 people (Livingston County) to 7 new COVID cases per 100,000 people (Detroit). The per capita rate for Detroit and Wayne County did slightly decrease from the day prior while the remaining counties in Southeastern Michigan experienced a slight increase. For Detroit, the per capita rate of 7 was equal to 46 new cases and Wayne County’s per capita rate of 3 new COVID cases per 100,000 people was equivalent to 34 new cases. Oakland County reported a per capita rate of 3 new cases per 100,000 people on May 12, which was equivalent to 32 new cases, and Macomb County reported a rate of 4, which was equivalent to 33 new cases.

The State’s per capita rate was 3.8 new cases per 100,000 people, equivalent to 469 new cases. In total, of the 469 new cases, Southeastern Michigan accounted for 174 of them.

The chart also shows that the per capita rates for the number of daily COVID cases has been fairly stable for the last several days.

In Chart 6, the five-day rolling average for the number of deaths shows a continuing slow increase (a lagged number of 4,546 deaths, an increase of 66 deaths). The actual reported COVID-19 deaths reached 4,674 on May 12, an increase of 90 deaths from the day prior. Of those 90 daily deaths, 19 were added to the May 12 total as a result of the State reviewing death certificates with the COVID database.  Even when removing the 19 additional deaths added to the daily total, the number of additional deaths more than doubled from the previous day. However, the overall death curve is increasing at a much slower rate than it was even just 10 days ago. Additionally, Southeastern Michigan contributed 74 additional deaths to the overall 90 reported on May 12.

Chart 7 portrays how the total number of COVID deaths in Southeastern Michigan continues to increase, but that rate of increase has been gradually declining overall, and the curve is slowly starting to flatten. The rate of increase is gradually declining because the number of additional deaths throughout the State (Chart 8) and the region, overall, are declining. Chart 9 highlights how some of the entities that have continuously contributed to the State’s overall growth in COVID deaths have experienced declines in the number of daily COVID deaths. Oakland County reported the highest number of additional deaths on May 10 at 17, this was based on a 5-day rolling average calculation. Detroit reported 13 additional daily deaths, the same number it reported the day before. While Oakland County did report 2 more additional deaths on May 10 than it did the day before, for the entire month of May no government entity in Southeastern Michigan has reported more than 20 daily COVID deaths, based on 5-day rolling averages. In April, these entities reported up to as many as 54 daily deaths based on 5-day rolling averages.

Chart 10 portrays the total number of COVID deaths per 100,000 people. As of May 12, the cumulative total of COVID deaths per 100,000 people in Detroit was 180 (representing 1,213 deaths). In Wayne County there were 138 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (927 total deaths), in Oakland County there were 130 deaths per 100,000 people (872 total deaths), and in Macomb County there were 106 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (710 total).

The State of Michigan had 47 COVID deaths per 100,000 people.

The fatality rates for Detroit and Macomb, Oakland and Wayne counties all reached 11 percent or higher on May 12. Detroit had the highest fatality rate at 12.2 percent. The State reported a 9.7 percent fatality rate on May 12.

One reason we may be seeing such high fatality rates in Michigan is due to the low testing rates. When only having-presumably-a lower of number confirmed COVID cases than is actually likely due to the limited availability of tests, the fatality rate appears higher because the base comparison is smaller than it might be.

Ninety additional COVID deaths were reported in Michigan on May 12, showing that numbers, although declining, can spike up again on any given day. This is why prevention and testing are key in fighting the spread of the virus, to ultimately ensure the fewest number of people possible become infected. There is a call for an increased rate of testing in Michigan and the Stay-at-Home Order remains in place. However, to prevent the spread of the virus to work settings, the public must remain committed to following the guidelines.

According to the State of Michigan, the total number of COVID cases in Michigan rose to 46,326, an increase of 680 cases from the previous day. This total was equivalent to 463 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 4) on May 8. The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing and/or the quality of reporting or failure to report. That curve continues to trend upward, but the number of new COVID cases identified each day in Southeastern Michigan has been slowly decreasing for nearly a month now. Since April 2 none of the counties in Southeastern Michigan or Detroit have reported more than 100 new daily cases. On May 6 Wayne County reported the highest number of new cases at 53 (Chart 3). Note that this five day rolling average causes these daily case and daily death charts to lag two days behind.

Chart 2 shows how the curve is flattening in Southeastern Michigan, based on the five-day rolling averages. This is inline with the Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s statement that the State is in Stage 3 of her 6 stage “plan;” Stage 3 is where the COVID case growth is gradually declining.  So, while the numbers overall are continuing to rise it is at a much slower rate, showing new case growth is on the decline. Detroit still had the highest number of cumulative COVID cases at 9,514 on May 6, with Wayne County following at a reported 8,040 cases. On May 6, the five-day rolling average for the number of COVID cases in Oakland County was 7,580, and Macomb County reported 5,843.

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data were supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State.

The City of Detroit had 1,434 COVID cases per 100,000 people on May 8, an increase from 1,422 the day before (Chart 4). This is based upon a reported increase of 82 new cases, bringing the total number of COVID cases in Detroit to 9,648. Wayne County reported 1,215 cases per 100,000 people, and Oakland County had 1,139 cases per 100,000 people. These per capita rates were based upon 8,176 total cases for Wayne and 7,664 for Oakland. Macomb County reported 886 cases per 100,000 people, which is based upon 5,963 cases.

Chart 5 shows that the per capita rate for the number of new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people doubled, or more, for Detroit and Macomb and St. Clair counties between May 7 and May 8. On May 8, Detroit reported 12 new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people, an increase from a rate of 4 the day before. Detroit reported 82 new COVID cases on May 8. For Macomb County, its rate increased from 5 new COVID cases per 100,000 people to 10; in total Macomb County reported 87 new cases on May 8. The per capita rate in St. Clair County increased from 0 to 7 new COVID cases per 100,000 people; this was equivalent to 11 new cases. Wayne County reported a rate of 7 new COVID cases on May 8, which was equivalent to 75 new cases. Oakland County experienced a decline in its rate, from 4 to 3 new cases per 100,000 people. On May 8 Oakland County reported 40 new COVID cases.

The State’s per capita rate was 6.8 new cases per 100,000 people, equivalent to 680 new cases. In total, of the 680 new cases, Southeastern Michigan accounted for 333 of them.

In Chart 6 the five-day rolling average for the number of deaths shows a continuing steady increase (a lagged number of 4,260 deaths, an increase of 69 deaths). The actual reported COVID-19 deaths reached 4,395 on May 8, an increase of 50 deaths from the day prior. Of those 50 additional deaths reported on May 8, 40 were in Southeastern Michigan. Chart 7 portrays how the total number of COVID deaths in Southeastern Michigan continues to increase, but that rate has been gradually declining overall, showing that the curve is now beginning to flatten. The rate at which the number of deaths is increasing in Detroit and Wayne County is now roughly equal, though Detroit, where Covid-19 landed first, continues to have a much higher cumulative death total.

Chart 8 shows that the number of daily deaths in Michigan continues to decline overall, despite a small uptick on May 6. Chart 9 shows that Detroit and Oakland and Washtenaw counties contributed to the small uptick in the total number of additional deaths in Michigan. Detroit reported 14 additional deaths, which was 2 more than what was reported the day prior. Oakland and Washtenaw counties each reported 1 single additional death from the day prior. Aside from those three entities, the other five counties in Southeastern Michigan reported the same number of additional deaths as the day prior, further showing that the curve is in fact flattening.

Chart 10 portrays the total number of COVID deaths per 100,000 people. As of May 8, the cumulative total of COVID deaths per 100,000 people in Detroit was 172 (representing 1,154 deaths). In Wayne County there were 130 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (874 total deaths), in Oakland County there were 120 deaths per 100,000 people (805 total deaths), and in Macomb County there were 101 COVID deaths per 1000,000 people (682 total).

The State of Michigan had 44 COVID deaths per 100,000 people, a rate that continues to remain lower than the four entities discussed above.

The fatality rate in Detroit remained at 12 percent on May 8 and the State’s remained at 9.5 percent. Macomb, Oakland and Wayne counties all have fatality rates above 10 percent.

One reason we may be seeing such high fatality rates in Michigan is due to the low testing rates. When only having-presumably-a lower of number confirmed COVID cases than is actually likely due to the limited availability of tests, the fatality rate appears higher because the base comparison is smaller than it might be.

As Gov. Whitmer announced earlier this week, Michigan is in the “flattening the curve” phase in facing the coronavirus pandemic. The data presented in this post supports that statement, showing how the number of new daily cases and deaths have remained steady and even showed signs of declining in recent days. In order for the State to safely re-open though we need to move beyond flattening the curve and show that hospitalizations are not only continuously declining but that outbreaks can be quickly contained, and community spread is no longer expected to return.

According to the State of Michigan, the total number of COVID cases in Michigan rose to 45,646, an increase of 592 cases from the previous day. This total was equivalent to 460 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 4) on May 7. The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing and/or the quality of reporting or failure to report. That curve continues to trend upward, but the number of new COVID cases identified each day in Southeastern Michigan has been slowly decreasing for nearly a month now. Since April 2 none of the counties in Southeastern Michigan or Detroit have reported more than 100 new daily cases. On May 5 Detroit reported the highest number of new cases at 57 (Chart 3). Note that this five day rolling average causes these daily case and daily death charts to lag two days behind.

Chart 2 reflects how the five-day rolling averages at the County level and for the City of Detroit, and this chart shows a clear leveling off of the total number of COVID cases in Southeastern Michigan. The numbers are continuing to rise, but at a much slower rate. Detroit still has the highest number of reported COVID cases at 9,461 on May 5, with Wayne County following at a reported 7,987 cases. On May 5, the five-day rolling average for the number of COVID cases in Oakland County was 7,551, and Macomb County reported 5,802.

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data were supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State.

The City of Detroit had 1,422 COVID cases per 100,000 people on May 7, an increase from 1,418 the day before (Chart 4). This is based upon a reported increase of 30 new cases, bringing the total number of COVID cases in Detroit to 9,566. Wayne County reported 1,204 cases per 100,000 people, and Oakland County had 1,133 cases per 100,000 people. These per capita rates were based upon 8,101 total cases for Wayne and 7,624 for Oakland. Macomb County reported 874 cases per 100,000 people, which is based upon 5,876 cases.

Chart 5 shows that Detroit, Monroe and Livingston counties experienced decreases in the number of daily COVID cases per 100,000 people on May 7. On May 7, Detroit reported 7 new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people, a decline from a rate of 17 the day before. Detroit reported 30 new COVID cases on May 7. For Monroe County, its rate dropped to 11 daily COVID cases per 100,000 people, this was equal to 17 new cases. Livingston County’s rate dropped to 1. Macomb, Oakland and Wayne counties all maintained the same per capita rate from May 6 to May 7. The rates were 5,4, and 6 per 100,000 people, respectively. Macomb County reported 44 new cases on May 7, Oakland County reported 51 and Wayne County reported 66.

The State’s per capita rate was 5.9 new cases per 100,000 people, equivalent to 592 new cases. In total, of the 592 new cases, Southeastern Michigan accounted for 221 of them.

In Chart 6 the five-day rolling average for the number of deaths shows a continuing steady increase (a lagged number of 4,191 deaths, an increase of 65 deaths). The actual reported COVID-19 deaths reached 4,343 on May 7, an increase of 93 deaths from the day prior. Of those 93 deaths, 38 were added to the May 7 total as a result of comparing death certificates and the State’s COVID database. Furthermore, of those 93 additional deaths reported on May 7, 71 were in Southeastern Michigan. Chart 7 portrays how the total number of COVID deaths in Southeastern Michigan continues to increase, but that rate has been gradually declining overall. The rate at which the number of deaths is increasing in Detroit and Wayne County is now roughly equal, though Detroit, where Covid-19 landed first, continues to have a much higher cumulative death total.

Chart 8 shows that the number of daily deaths in Michigan continues to decline, even with the addition of  past deaths, discovered through database research. As we have been noting, part of the reason for the State’s decline is due to the decline in the number of COVID deaths in Southeastern Michigan.  Although there has been an overall decline, Chart 9 portrays that Macomb County did experience a small increase in the number of daily COVID deaths. Even with the increase, no entity in the region reported more than 13 daily deaths. Wayne County reported the highest at 13 while Detroit reported 12, and Macomb County reported 11. Both Charts 8 and 9 represent five-day rolling average for the number of COVID deaths. Chart 9 makes clear that Detroit, Wayne and Oakland now have steady, substantial daily declines.

Chart 10 portrays the total number of COVID deaths per 100,000 people. As of May 7, the cumulative total of COVID deaths per 100,000 people in Detroit was 171 (representing 1,147 deaths). In Wayne County there were 129 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (865 total deaths), in Oakland County there were 117 deaths per 100,000 people (789 total deaths), and in Macomb County there were 101 COVID deaths per 1000,000 people (678 total). The State of Michigan had 43 COVID deaths per 100,000 people, a rate that continues to remain lower than the four entities discussed above.

The fatality rates throughout Southeastern Michigan all increased on May 7, with Detroit’s reaching 12 percent. Macomb County continues to have the second highest fatality rate at 11.5 percent. The State’s fatality rate remains under 10 percent; it was reported at 9.5 percent on May 7.

One reason we may be seeing such high fatality rates in Michigan is due to the low testing rates. When only having-presumably-a lower of number confirmed COVID cases than is actually likely due to the limited availability of tests, the fatality rate appears higher because the base comparison is smaller than it might be.

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer extended the Stay-at-Home Order through May 28 yesterday. While we know the percentage of individuals testing positive for the virus continues to decline, as does the number of daily deaths, Whitmer said an extension was needed to keep the entire population safe as officials prepare to slowly re-open the State. In the next two weeks manufacturing and automotive plants will re-open, sectors that employ thousands. Only leaving home for the necessities, including employment, will help protect against a hard-hitting second wave of the virus.

According to the State of Michigan, the total number of COVID cases in Michigan rose to 45,054, an increase of 657 cases from the previous day. This total was equivalent to 451 cases per 100,000 people (Chart 4) on May 6. The five-day rolling average for the total number of COVID cases (Chart 1) reflects a smoother curve and adjusts for fluctuations in testing and/or the quality of reporting or failure to report. That curve continues to trend upward, but the number of new COVID cases identified each day in Southeastern Michigan has been slowly decreasing since the middle of April. All entities in the region reported less than 100 new daily cases. Detroit reported the highest number of new cases at 78 (Chart 3). Officials are noting recent COVID case increases in West Michigan, which are also contributing to the State’s increase. Kent County reported 102 new cases on May 6. Note that this five day rolling average causes these daily case and the daily death charts to lag two days behind.

Chart 2 reflects the five-day rolling averages at the County level and for the City of Detroit. Although the overall number of COVID cases across the region continues to increase, the rates of increase have been declining. Detroit still has the highest number of reported COVID cases at 9,404 on May 4, with Wayne County following at a reported 7,932 cases. On May 4, the five-day rolling average for the number of COVID cases in Oakland County was 7,521, and Macomb County reported 5,760.

The daily data highlighted in these posts is from Michigan.gov/coronavirus, where data is updated daily at 3 p.m. Historical data were supplied from covidtracking.com, which republishes COVID data from the State.

The City of Detroit had 1,418 COVID cases per 100,000 people on May 6, an increase from 1,401 the day before (Chart 4). This is based upon a reported increase of 112 new cases, bringing the total number of COVID cases in Detroit to 9,536. Wayne County reported 1,195 cases per 100,000 people, and Oakland County had 1,126 cases per 100,000 people. These per capita rates were based upon 8,035 total cases for Wayne and 7,537 for Oakland. Macomb County reported 867 cases per 100,000 people, which is based upon 5,832 cases.

Chart 5 shows that despite a recent dramatic decrease in the number of daily COVID cases per capita, though some government entities experienced a noticeable increase on May 6. On May 6 Detroit reported a rate of 17 new daily COVID cases per 100,000 people, which was equivalent to 112 new cases. Monroe County reported the highest rate at 18 new COVID cases per 100,000 people, which was equal to 27 new cases ( 354 total cases in Monroe County). Wayne County’s per capita rate was reported to be 6 new cases per 100,000 people, Oakland County’s rate was 4 and Macomb’s was 2. These rates were equivalent to  68, 51 and 43 new daily COVID cases, respectively. Detroit was the only one with a rate that quadrupled from the previous day. This could be due to a continued increase in testing; it could also be related to how the data was reported by the State on May 4 and May 5 due to software issues and backlogs.

The State’s per capita rate was 6.6 new cases per 100,000 people, equivalent to 657 new cases. The number of new COVID cases in Southeastern Michigan accounted for 311 of those 657 new cases.

In Chart 6 the five-day rolling average for the number of deaths shows a continuing steady increase (a lagged number of 4,127 deaths, an increase of 77 deaths). The actual reported COVID-19 deaths reached 4,250 on May 6, an increase of 71 deaths from the day prior. Of the additional daily deaths, 49 occurred in Southeastern Michigan, 18 of which were in Detroit. Chart 8, a five-day rolling average chart, shows that the number of daily additional deaths in Michigan has been declining overall since April 23. With Southeastern Michigan making up 84 percent of the State’s total number of COVID deaths, we see how the increases or decreases directly impact the curve at the State level. Chart 7 portrays how the total number of COVID deaths in Southeastern Michigan continues to increase, but that rate has been gradually declining overall.

Chart 8 shows that the number of daily deaths in Michigan has also been declining, in part, due to the overall decline in the number of daily deaths in Southeastern Michigan. As Chart 9 portrays, no entity in Southeastern Michigan has reported 20 additional COVID deaths or more since May 2. Both Charts 8 and 9 represent five-day rolling average for the number of COVID deaths. Detroit and Macomb County experienced small increases in the number of daily deaths. Additionally, Detroit and Wayne County reported the same number of daily deaths on May 4 (17). Livingston and St. Clair counties haven’t experienced any increases in the total number of COVID deaths in May.

Chart 10 portrays the total number of COVID deaths per 100,000 people. As of May 6, the cumulative total of COVID deaths per 100,000 people in Detroit was 167 (representing 1,126 deaths). In Wayne County there were 126 COVID deaths per 100,000 people (847 total deaths), in Oakland County there were 115 deaths per 100,000 people (774 total deaths), and in Macomb County there were 98 COVID deaths per 1000,000 people (662 total). The State of Michigan had 43 COVID deaths per 100,000 people, a rate that continues to remain lower than the four entities discussed above.

The fatality rate in Detroit remained at 11.8 percent on May 6 while Macomb County’s increased to 11.4 percent. The State’s fatality rate remained steady at 9.4 percent. Detroit, Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties all have fatality rates higher than Michigan’s and above 10 percent. 

One reason we may be seeing such high fatality rates in Michigan is due to the low testing rates. When only having-presumably-a lower of number confirmed COVID cases than is actually likely due to the scarce availability of tests, the fatality rate appears higher because the base comparison is smaller than it might be.

It has been 8 weeks since the first COVID cases were reported in Michigan and the data is showing, at least for Southeastern Michigan, that the spread is starting to slow. The number of daily cases and deaths in Southeastern Michigan continues to either remain stagnant or decline. The west side of the State is experiencing a recent uptick in the number of confirmed cases and deaths, which certainly affects the overall trend lines for the State. However, with social distancing proven to work numbers throughout the State should continue to decline. That is the case, assuming the Governor’s orders stay in place.